Journal ·
Wednesday, 4 November 2026
Regime Risk-onMarket regime
Risk-on — the model's close-of-day read. VIX 16.61 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 62.5% (611/978) of names above their 50-day EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 766.73 — +4.3% vs its 200-EMA (734.85).
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-on | Flip from neutral |
| VIX | 16.61 | Calm — no fear bid |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 62.5% (611/978) | Healthy participation |
| SPY close | 766.73 | +4.3% vs 200-EMA (734.85) |
Regime assessment
Regime flipped to risk-on from the prior neutral read. The model reads risk-on: the S&P 500 is above its 200-day average, breadth is healthy and volatility is contained.
Status
Close-of-day regime for 4 November 2026: risk-on. Changed from neutral.