Watchlist · live, names only
What the model is reading next.
Updated ·
Refreshed every trading day — latest 2026-08-25. Regime RISK-ON (SPY +7.2% over its 200-EMA, VIX 15.13 / calm, breadth 59.3% of names above their 200-EMA). This is a research note — names, theses, and the levels we're watching. Not advice, not positions. Per-name prices are current reads via FMP (a US exchange fallback) as of 2026-08-25.
This is the active research bench, built from the live ticker dossiers (status WATCHLIST / HELD with a real thesis). It tracks what we're watching and why — the theme, the archetype, the conviction tag, and the level that would invalidate the thesis. It does not disclose positioning.
AI chips & memory
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $356.74 | The three-session bounce failed at the 200-day: $368.45 on 2026-08-21 gave way to $358.76 on 2026-08-24 with RSI(14) at 18.4 and no company-specific headline — a fourth straight close under a rising 200-day marked $369.20. The unwithdrawn $29.4B/$16.0B guide meets the tape after the close on 2026-09-02; NVDA prints 08-26. | A weekly close below $340 confirms the twice-failed reclaim of the $370 July shelf and the rising 200-day SMA marked at $369.20 on 2026-08-24. Secondary: Q3 FY26 on 2026-09-02 printing AI semiconductor revenue under the guided $16.0B or total revenue under $29.4B. |
| MTUM | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $302.40 | The AI-memory leg MTUM rotated into at the May reconstitution has rolled over: SOX -20%+ from its June peak, memory names in a bear market, and the fund closed $302.09 on 2026-07-17, below the $310 shelf that defined the post-reconstitution base. With ~36% in the semi complex and no rebalance until November, this is a falling-knife AI-hardware proxy with a lagged exit. | A weekly close below $296 (loses the mid-July shelf) opens the gap toward the rising 200-day near $270 and confirms the AI-memory leg the fund now expresses is in a full unwind; an Intel miss on 2026-07-23 or a soft Lam Research guide on 2026-07-29 that extends the semi-cap derating seals it. |
| MU | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $932.97 | Contract-annuity leg intact — 16 take-or-pay deals, ~$100B minimum contracted revenue to late 2030 — but on 2026-08-24 the tape found a counter-narrative: reports the White House may let Apple source DRAM from CXMT ahead of Xi's ~09-24 visit knocked MU from $966.78 to $910.43 and erased the $10B research-lab pop. Nvidia 2026-08-26 is the only in-window binary; FQ4 lands… | A daily close below $868 hands back the entire August rebound off the 2026-08-11 close of $868.52 and returns price into the July range; a weekly close below $829 additionally breaks the 2026-08-04 gap-up shelf. Secondary: a formal US decision clearing Apple to source DRAM from CXMT. |
| SIMO | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $241.83 | Controller mix re-rating still rests on the untouched 2026-07-29 Q3 guide of $519–541M against ~$431.8M consensus, but the 2026-08-24 close of $243.18 gave back the whole 08-19/08-21 bounce and sits on the $238.51 shelf after a complex-wide selloff on reports Washington may clear Apple to buy CXMT/YMTC memory. No company-dated evidence until ~2026-11-04; the 2026-08-26… | A weekly close below $238 breaks the 2026-08-13 shelf at $238.51, revisited on 2026-08-24. Secondary: the September Trump–Xi meeting passing with a published Apple allowance for CXMT DRAM or YMTC NAND and no company-dated rebuttal before the ~2026-11-04 Q3 report. |
| STX | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $821.67 | Maturing AI-storage supercycle with sell-side still chasing: Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight $1,100 (7/10) and Citi Street-high $1,240 (7/13). But the DRAM ETF is down ~30% and Seagate's Q4 FY26 print ~2026-07-22 is a binary about two trading days out — a late, crowded name gated by earnings. | A weekly close below $780 (loses the June breakout base and the low end of raised sell-side targets); a Q4 FY26 guide (~2026-07-22) that walks back nearline pricing or exabyte growth would confirm the theme flipping to saturated. |
| WDC | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $450.75 | The 29% bounce off the 2026-07-28 low stalled: WDC closed $527.22 on 2026-08-03, −3.23% on a day its sector rose 0.58%, back under a rising 50-day at $562.65. Consensus (~$3.69B / $3.31–$3.35) still sits above the company's own $3.65B ±$100M / $3.25 ±$0.15 guide, so the 2026-08-05 print — 16.8% implied — is the binary. | A daily close below $462 surrenders the 2026-07-28/29 closing floor ($462.04–$463.51) and re-opens the $422.11 spike low. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q4 print landing at or under the $3.65B / $3.25 guide midpoints, or a September quarter not guided up sequentially against Seagate's ~$4.1B bar. |
AI datacenter infrastructure
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $451.02 | One-session reclaim failed: the 2026-08-24 close of $433.19 is back under the 2026-08-11 shelf of $440.97, RSI(14) 41.3, 12.4% below the 08-13 high of $494.51. Morgan Stanley's 08-24 raise to $434 sets a target at the market while Evercore sits at $550. Nvidia 08-26 and Dell's Q2 FY27 on 09-01 are the binaries; ISG operating margin under the memory step-up stays untested… | A weekly close below $419 surrenders the July–August advance and re-enters the $405.00–$419.06 band where Silver Lake affiliates sold in July. Secondary: ISG operating margin printing under Q1 FY27's 10.5% at the 2026-09-01 Q2 FY27 report. |
| HPE | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $53.45 | The one green close failed: 2026-08-24 closed $52.43, undercutting the 08-20 low close of $52.89 and marking seven of eight sessions lower off the 2026-08-13 high of $59.82, with no dated HPE news since 2026-08-19. The 2026-09-02 Q3 print is the binary — screens carry ~$0.93–0.94 EPS on ~$11.97B against a $0.88–0.93 / $11.5–12.1B guide. The narrative is saturated. | A daily close below $50.24 takes out the early-August shelf and leaves no August structure under price. Secondary: a 2026-09-02 Q3 print with revenue under $11.5B, or FY26 non-GAAP EPS merely reaffirmed at $3.35–3.45 instead of raised. |
| MRVL | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $240.38 | Custom-silicon ASIC royalty story intact, but the AI-semi theme is mid-correction — chips posted their worst month vs software on record (7/17) with money rotating into energy. Buying a falling sector with no confirmed higher low is the trap; the setup needs the published invalidation level-255 May shelf to hold before re-engaging. | A a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the May breakout shelf and rising weekly 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: Broadcom disclosing incremental custom-ASIC share at AWS Trainium or Microsoft MAIA, a Google/Marvell TPU walk-back, or hyperscalers guiding FY27 capex flat-to-down on the late-July prints. |
| SNX | HELD | 2nd-Order AI | $251.39 | Second-order AI re-rating still unconfirmed by company data, and the tape has now taken it back: the 2026-08-24 close of $243.65 leaves a three-month price change of +1.7% with RSI(14) at 27.3. The 11-analyst panel has not revised since 2026-07-22, across five external events. NVDA on 2026-08-26 re-prices the complex a month before TD SYNNEX discloses anything. | A weekly close below $234 forfeits the $235.67 shelf unbroken since 2026-07-08 and completes the round-trip of the advance off the 2026-06-25 print. Secondary: NVDA 2026-08-26, HPE 2026-09-02 and Dell 2026-09-03 all passing with no close back above $255.70. |
AI enterprise software
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $172.73 | The 2026-08-21 breakout close of $179.94 did not hold: 2026-08-24 closed $175.89 (-2.25%), back inside the $171.04–$179.01 August range, with RSI(14) down to 60.9 from 79.0. No company input until roughly 2026-11-02, so the ~08-25 FINRA short report, Nvidia's 08-26 print and Warsh's 08-28 Jackson Hole keynote decide whether the 2026-08-14 leg high of $180.18 gets taken. | A daily close below $171 breaks the floor of the $171.04–$179.01 August range that the 2026-08-24 close of $175.89 returned into and makes $179.94 a false high; secondary: Nvidia's 08-26 print, the ~08-25 FINRA report and Warsh's 08-28 keynote all passing with no close above the 2026-08-14 leg high of $180.18. |
Critical materials & rare earths
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUUU | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $15.97 | Mine-to-magnet milestone cadence still driving the tape, but paying less each time: the 2026-08-19 terbium qualification bought one session (08-21 close $15.14, +8.92%) then faded to $14.88 on 08-24, back under the 08-14 shelf of $15.10. ASM implementation 2026-08-28 is the last dated corporate step; rare earths were ~$0.1M of $25.108M Q2 revenue and White Mesa's uranium… | A daily close below $13.90 gives back the 2026-08-21 reclaim in full and re-exposes the 2026-08-06 shelf near $12.90, with the 2026-07-29 close of $10.74 beneath it. |
Crypto exchanges & financials
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $187.16 | Fourth session of the CLARITY repricing gave ground: adjusted close $179.48 on 2026-08-24 vs $186.49 on 08-21, RSI(14) 67.3 from 74.9, with the $160.20 gap floor still intact. The 08-24 tokenized-stocks launch on Base (Chainlink oracle, non-U.S. only) adds product; the 2026-09-15 cloture vote remains the only dated re-rating before the ~early-November Q3 print. | A weekly close below $160 surrenders the 2026-08-19/20/21 policy gap (closes $160.20, $172.44, $186.49) and points back at the $139.11–$145.60 shelf; secondarily, the 2026-09-15 cloture motion on H.R. 3633 being pulled or finishing short of 60 votes. |
| CRCL | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $92.02 | Still a policy trade, but the first company-level support in weeks arrived: Bernstein's 2026-08-24 note reports USDC supply +$1.7B in a week after ~six months flat, reiterating $140 while Susquehanna raised to $92 on a Neutral. Circle has published nothing since 2026-08-05 and the tape stalled at $87.72 with RSI(14) 82.0. The 2026-09-15 cloture vote and 2026-09-16 Arc… | A weekly close below $78 unwinds the 2026-08-19 close of $78.59 that started the leg and gives back the 200-day reclaimed 2026-08-21, reopening the $70.80 50-day and the $66.67–$67.05 shelf; secondarily, CLARITY cloture failing 2026-09-15 with no SEC/CFTC substitute named, or Arc mainnet slipping past 2026-09-16 with no replacement date. |
| HOOD | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $112.09 | The 2026-08-21 breakout above the $97.28/$98.87 band held its weekly close at $108.13, then gave 4.2% back to $103.62 on 2026-08-24 — still above the band, follow-through above $109.25 rejected. The dated binary is the 2:15 p.m. ET cloture vote on H.R. 3633 on 2026-09-15, needing 60 votes against 53 Republican seats; August operating data around 2026-09-10 is the only… | A weekly close below $97 forfeits the 2026-08-21 breakout above the $97.28/$98.87 band and reopens the $86.21 (2026-07-30) / $85.30 (2026-08-03) shelf. Secondary: the 2026-09-15 Senate cloture vote on H.R. 3633 failing or being pulled without a rescheduled date. |
| MSTR | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $126.83 | Eighth straight week with no bitcoin bought: the 2026-08-24 8-K shows ~$2.01B of common sold at an average near $109.88 into the rally, with 100% routed to STRC buybacks, a $5.1B USD Reserve and a new $1.59B "USD Cash" pool. Credit workout, not accumulation. RSI(14) 72.0 at the 2026-08-24 close of $122.63; 2026-09-08 STRC-par target is the binary. | A weekly close below $104 surrenders the reclaimed July shelf and the entire post-summit advance, putting the 2026-08-14 close of $93.04 back in play; secondary confirmation is 2026-09-08 passing with STRC still under its $100 stated amount and no bitcoin purchases recorded. |
Cybersecurity
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA | HELD | Emergent | $130.61 | Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme accelerating, this leg maturing; open risk is paying up for a stretched 52-week-high tape. | A weekly close below $110 loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA; secondary confirmation would be a cRPO/billings/net-new-seat deceleration at the ~2026-08-26 print that resets the multiple. |
Cyclical industrials
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMTR | HELD | 2nd-Order AI | $87.78 | JP Morgan assumed coverage Overweight with a $120 target on 2026-08-24 — the highest posted on the name — and the close only moved $83.59 to $84.58, a fourth straight session under the $85.00 June follow-on level. Seven positive sell-side actions in fourteen sessions have produced no bid. Nothing company-sourced until ~2026-11-03; ISM on 2026-09-01 is the only independent read. | A weekly close below $80 surrenders the post-follow-on structure beneath the $85.00 June placement level, with no company disclosure due until ~2026-11-03; secondary conditions are August ISM Manufacturing under 52 on 2026-09-01 with New Orders below 50, or a downgrade or target cut out of the 2026-08-05 raise cohort. |
Defense & aerospace
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $87.74 | Defense-electronics turnaround still re-rating on record bookings and a promised FCF turn, but the stock has given back ~20% from its $128.45 ATH and now chops near the analyst median (~$103) into a binary ~Aug 10-18 Q4/full-year print. Consolidation, not acceleration — the move is maturing into the report. | A weekly close below $94 loses the breakout base and rising 50-day shelf underpinning the advance. Secondary: a Q4 FY26 print (~2026-08-10 to 08-18) with free cash flow failing to turn positive or book-to-bill under 1.0, or defense-electronics flipping to saturated as KTOS/AVAV break their July lows. |
EV & autonomous mobility
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $350.25 | Cybercab has a hard date — 2026-09-03, Austin, invite-only — but the first session to price it went down: $348.95 on 08-24 vs $362.86 on 08-21, RSI(14) back to 61.0 from 72.7. Reporting says the rollout starts with employee rides, and Polymarket prices a genuine $30,000 retail sale by year-end at 17%, from 33% in late April. | A daily close below the published invalidation level hands back the bulk of the August advance off the $297.38 52-week low with no 2026 base beneath it; secondary condition is 2026-09-03 passing with employee and invited riders only, no disclosed Cybercab fleet count and no date named for paid public rides. |
Fintech & consumer credit
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAVE | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $349.47 | Beat-and-raise fully modelled by 13 firms and sold on the day; the recovery has now stalled under $358–360 for three weeks, with the 2026-08-24 close at $354.79 and RSI(14) at 31.8. No rating action since 2026-08-17 and nothing operating until Q3 around 2026-11-04 — the ~2026-08-26 short-interest print is the only dated item left in the month. | A weekly close below $308 loses the 2026-08-10 post-print floor close of $308.82 and the 2026-06-18 breakout close of $314.44, leaving the 200-day printed at $250.45 on 2026-08-14 as the next reference; secondarily, the ~2026-08-26 short-interest report cutting the 2.31M-share base while price stays under the $358–360 zone. |
| SEZL | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $124.08 | Growth leg was retired by management's own 2026-08-06 H2 guide and the −33.89% gap; only a re-rating argument is live at 19.68x forward on the 2026-08-24 close of $117.93. That close lost the $118.02/$118.00 shelf with RSI(14) at 21.5, $129.87 untouched since 2026-08-17, and no Sezzle-generated datapoint until ~2026-11-05 — the nearest dated event is Affirm's 2026-08-27 print. | A weekly close below $117 forfeits the post-gap floor set by the 2026-08-18 close of $117.18 and opens the $100 round number ahead of the 200-day at $95.27. Secondary: the 2026-08-27 Affirm print and the 2026-09-15/2026-09-17 conferences passing with $129.87 still unreclaimed. |
Freight & logistics
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCB | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $135.56 | The twice-tested $135.76/$135.89 shelf lost on the 2026-08-24 close of $134.45, a 4.2% drop taken with the whole transport complex after Trump's 50% Canada auto/truck/parts/steel tariff post. No issuer catalyst until Q3 results ~2026-10-28; the 2026-08-28 weekly close is the first gradeable test of whether the break holds. | A weekly close below $135.75 confirms the break of the twice-tested 08-11/08-20 shelf and leaves price under every disclosed August insider strike including Anderson's $134.87; secondary break if 2026-09-01 ISM and the ~2026-09-15 Cass August shipments pass without arresting July's -4.8% decline. |
| JBHT | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $262.18 | The $267 floor broke: the 2026-08-24 close of $259.88 is ~5.7% below the prior session, on the day Washington set Canada auto, truck and parts tariffs to 50% from 2027-01-01. The freight-recovery re-rating now has no company datapoint until an estimated 2026-10-15, with a 2026-09-20 quiet period in between, leaving the leg on third-party rate data alone. | A weekly close below $259 converts the 2026-08-24 break of the $267.24 June floor from a policy gap into trend; secondary condition is the estimated 2026-09-09 DAT monthly release printing August dry van contract linehaul under $2.39/mile. |
| RXO | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $21.59 | Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground — bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to consensus; the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print (adj EBITDA guide $27–37M vs $6M Q1) is the binary the whole re-rate discounts. | A weekly close below $24 loses the May–June breakout shelf and consolidation base; secondary breaks are Q2 adjusted EBITDA (~2026-08-05) printing below the $27–37M guide floor, or the RXO Curve spot index rolling over. |
| XPO | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $191.93 | Record 79.9% adjusted LTL operating ratio and a raised full-year guide (2026-07-30) now sit against two negative July industry prints — ATA tonnage -0.5% YoY and Cass shipments -4.8% YoY. The $197.01 shelf gave way on the 2026-08-24 close of $191.99, leaving the rising 200-day of $186.50 as the next reference. The ~2026-09-03 August LTL 8-K is the first company-sourced… | A weekly close below $186 breaks the rising 200-day that has floored the name all year, after the $197.01 shelf was lost on 2026-08-24; secondary condition is the ~2026-09-03 August LTL 8-K showing North American shipments per day decelerating under +5% or turning negative. |
GPU cloud & neoclouds
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APLD | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $28.85 | BTC→AI landlord whose operating build (>1 GW contracted, ~$31B backlog, 175 MW live) has decoupled from an equity that halved from $49.65 to a $25.79 low, now bouncing off the $25.56 April base into a binary FY26 print on 2026-07-27. Morgan Stanley's cautious $36.50 Equal-Weight initiation lands the day before. The setup does not clear ahead of the print. | A weekly close below $25 loses the $25.56 April base floor and opens the $20 zone; secondary breaks: an ATM reactivation or equity raise disclosed on or after the 2026-07-27 FY26 call, a Polaris Forge lease cancellation, or a CoreWeave counterparty downgrade. |
| CRWV | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $88.04 | Post-print repricing is holding but fading: the 2026-08-12 gap to $107.73 is unfilled after closes of $106.29 and $105.26, RSI 71.1. Q2 printed $128M adjusted operating income against a $30–90M guide, and the $2.6B facility closed 2026-08-10 at SOFR+5.50% partly answers the funding question — with ~5-year paper against ~3-year contracts. NVIDIA's 2026-08-26 print sets the… | A daily close below $93.65 fills the 2026-08-12 gap and gives back the 200-day mark measured 2026-08-10; secondarily, FY26 adjusted operating income trimmed from the $960M–$1.15B guide, or a new facility priced materially wider than the SOFR+5.50% struck on 2026-08-10. |
| IREN | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $42.21 | Neocloud re-rate has fully round-tripped: $33.62 close 7/17, -42% in 30 days, late-May Microsoft breakout base surrendered. Contracts intact ($9.7B MSFT, prepaid tranches) but Q3 AI revenue was only $17.3M vs a $3.4B ARR ambition, and Nvidia/Meta moving into direct compute sales plus the $800M CEO grant fight have flipped the theme to a live de-rating. | A weekly close below $30 completes the round-trip of the Microsoft-reveal re-rate and puts the spring base in the $20s in play. Secondary breaks: the Anthropic Australian tender awarded entirely to CDC/AirTrunk/NextDC/Stack, or Q4 FY26 AI cloud revenue failing to scale meaningfully above the $17.3M Q3 level. |
Industrial power & grid
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMSC | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $29.65 | Grid/advanced-conductor supplier to data-center and utility power; backlog still ~+40% YoY (~$280M), but the tape broke after the 2026-05-28 beat-and-soft-guide and a late-June Russell removal piled on passive selling. Below the lost ~$40 shelf near the early-July ~$35 area with the theme matured to a value-trap shape — the setup does not clear until it bases into the ~Aug 5 Q1 print. | A weekly close below $33 confirms the break of the ~$34.50 early-July shelf and opens the declining 200-DMA / $25.28 52-week-low path; further confirmed if the ~Aug 5 Q1 print shows 12-month backlog contracting from ~$280M or the grid-power theme flips to saturated. |
| ATEX | HELD | Emergent | $92.37 | The 2026-08-21 reclaim at $93.25 gave back to $90.38 on 2026-08-24 with RSI(14) at 29.8, the $88.20 shelf still holding on closes. No spectrum sale agreement announced in the 126 days since 2026-04-21 and no company item filed since 2026-08-11; the ~2026-08-26 FINRA print for the 2026-08-14 settlement is the only dated read inside 30 days besides the 2026-09-21 buyback expiry. | A weekly close below $88.20 loses the shelf reclaimed on 2026-08-21 and re-opens the 2026-08-20 close of $85.31; secondary, 2026-09-21 passing with the $250M authorisation lapsed, $226.7M unused, and still no spectrum sale agreement announced since 2026-04-21. |
M&A & special situations
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRDM | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $47.10 | Deal-arb: $27.00 cash plus a collared RKLB stock leg marks a $54.00 package against the 2026-08-24 close of $47.30, a 12.41% discount. The S-4/A filed 2026-08-24 finally dated the special meeting (2026-09-24), but RKLB at $68.28 sits just 1.16% above the $67.50 collar floor — below it the package floats one-for-one with the acquirer. | A weekly close below $46.00 — 14.8% under the $54.00 contractual package and 5.7% above the ~$43.52 undisturbed pre-deal reference — marks break risk rather than collar mechanics; secondary conditions are sustained RKLB closes under the $67.50 collar floor, or the 2026-09-24 special meeting adjourning without an adoption vote. |
Managed care & health services
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNC | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $65.00 | Margin-repair guide raise of 2026-07-28 stays fully priced: the 2026-08-24 close of $65.65 is 2.7% under the 2026-08-14 close of $67.47 and 4.5% below the $68.72 52-week high, with no analyst target moved since Argus on 2026-08-11. maturing; the next company-controlled datapoint is Q3, now calendared 2026-10-27. | A weekly close below $63 breaks the post-print sequence and confirms the failed retest of the 2026-08-14 close of $67.47; a weekly close below $56 would surrender the July range. Secondary: the September 8–10 healthcare-conference window passing with no incremental 2027 rate commentary while price stays under $67.47. |
| HNGE | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $89.87 | Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. | A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to saturated or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor. |
| HUM | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $389.71 | Margin-over-volume Medicare Advantage reset reclaimed its trend: the 2026-08-24 close of $386.61 is 2.0% above the prior session and back clear of the last 50-day value observed ($378.33, 2026-08-12), with RSI(14) at 64.6 from 52.5. Revision flow idle since Bernstein's 08-14 Buy/$425, and the 2027 number now has a venue — a 2026-12-10 investor update — past both the… | A daily close below $372 takes out the 2026-08-11 close of $372.82 and turns the 2026-08-12 reclaim of the 50-day into a failed one; a weekly close below $353 removes the 2026-08-05 low of $353.69. Secondary: the 2026-09-08/10 conference window passing with no participation release and no intermediate 2027 figure. |
| OSCR | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $30.93 | Still maturing and range-bound: the 2026-08-24 close of $31.81 is the sixth session without a new high since the 2026-08-14 closing high of $32.76, and it sits 4.6% above the $30.40 consensus mean target. Short interest fell to 17.83M from 18.74M the prior month, so the consolidation is not covering-fed. The 2026-09-16 Investor Day is the only dated estimate driver. | A weekly close below $30.11 gives back the 2026-08-05 print-eve close and returns price inside the 2026-08-06 gap-down; a weekly close below $26.54 retraces the entire post-print reaction. Secondary: the 2026-09-16 Investor Day passing with no 2027 membership range or premium framework. |
Medtech & diagnostics
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXG | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $64.72 | First lower close of the run: 2026-08-24 at $63.80, 2.0% under the 2026-08-21 record close of $65.12, with price still above every published target (high mark Stephens $65, 08-12; 16-analyst average $49.54). No company item since the 08-06 Q2 print and no rating action in twelve sessions, so the leg runs on a news vacuum until the ~09-09 short-interest file, with no company… | A weekly close below $58.57 gives back the 2026-08-19 reclaim of the prior record close and returns price into the 2026-07-21 to 08-03 range; secondary: the ~2026-09-09 short-interest file showing the 13.22%-of-float base materially cut while the panel stays 10 Hold with nothing published above $65. |
Mega-cap AI platforms
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
Networking & optical
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $113.15 | The $110 shelf that defined the August leg is gone: the 2026-08-24 close of $107.63 fully unwinds the 2026-08-04 policy gap (pre-gap close $110.21), three sessions after a second $600,000,000 ATM was filed on 2026-08-21. Q2 revenue +86% YoY and a 115%–144% Q3 growth guide are intact, but the equity narrative is late-cycle with no company-controlled catalyst before Q3… | A weekly close below $104 takes out the 2026-08-24 intraday low of $104.50 and leaves no part of the August advance intact. Secondary: the FCC September open-meeting tentative agenda (~2026-09-03) publishing with no transceiver-import item, which removes the policy option entirely. |
| LITE | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $885.57 | Optical-content-per-rack leg intact, but the cohort just repriced on a peer's dilution rather than on anything Lumentum said: the 2026-08-24 close of $830.17 sits 1.2% over the 2026-08-11 shelf at $820.59 after Applied Optoelectronics' $600M ATM took 5% out of the name. Nvidia's 2026-08-26 print after the close is the borrowed binary; no company-reported number until early… | A weekly close below $820 loses the 2026-08-11 pre-print shelf at $820.59, which held closing tests on 08-19, 08-20 and again on 08-24; secondary condition is the 2026-08-26 Nvidia call passing with no 2027 networking-content detail, leaving no priced event until the early-November FQ1 print. |
Nuclear & uranium
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCJ | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $106.96 | Nuclear-uranium theme maturing and CCJ's structure has broken twice into improving news: mkt cap $44.79B (06-29) → ~$39.9B (07-25), ~$88, ~35% off the $135.24 high, absorbing a $17.5B federal AP1000 program and NJ's $24B plan. Barclays cut to Equal-Weight, PT $104 (07-16). Q2 print 2026-07-31 (EPS est $0.26, −49% YoY) is the binary; no setup until a higher-low reclaim of ~$104. | A weekly close below $85 turns the twice-broken structure into a trend, losing the July shelf and opening the $68.96 base; confirmed fundamentally by a Q2 delivery guide cut below 29–32M lb or a realized-price guide under $85/lb on the ~2026-07-31 print. A failed reclaim at ~$104 on thin volume marks a third lower high. |
| CEG | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $278.42 | Post-print reclaim still failing: $282.50 (2026-08-14) is the only close above the broken $281 shelf, and 08-24 printed $273.43 thirteen sessions after the beat-and-raise. Seven sell-side cuts since 07-27 against one raise, PJM's 2028/29 capacity auction capped at $325/MW-day, and the ~2026-09-12 EO 62 working-group deadline is the next dated resolution. | A weekly close below $267 hands back the entire post-print advance — the pre-print close was $267.25 on 2026-08-04 — and confirms 2026-08-14's $282.50 as a failed retest of the $281 shelf. Secondary: the ~2026-09-12 EO 62 working-group remit landing with no carve-out for co-located or behind-the-meter nuclear. |
| NNE | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $19.24 | Nuclear-microreactor narrative has stopped converting news into demand: a Truist Hold/$22 initiation (7/14) and a Virginia consortium announcement (7/17) landed inside four sessions and NNE still printed a fresh 52-week low at $15.78 (7/16), losing the prior $18.04 floor. Broken structure, $400M ATM armed against a ~$844M cap, first KRONOS revenue ~FY2030. The setup does not clear until… | A weekly close below $15.78 confirms the fresh 52-week low as a breakdown rather than a washout and opens undiscovered downside; secondarily, any 424B or 8-K disclosing ATM share sales into a bounce confirms dilution is capping every rally. |
| OKLO | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $44.27 | Three straight cohort-driven sessions carried OKLO from the 2026-07-29 close of $36.84 to $43.33 on 2026-08-04, with no Oklo release behind any of them. The 2026-08-07 Q2 call is the binary. | A daily close below $38.83 hands back the entire three-session recovery off the 2026-07-29 low and returns the $36.61 52-week low to the tape; secondary break if the 2026-08-07 Q2 call passes with no dated Groves first-criticality schedule. |
| SMR | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $9.80 | Funded wait on one unsigned ENTRA1–TVA power purchase agreement, with the company silent for twenty days since the 2026-08-05 Q2 release. The 2026-08-24 close of $9.05 gave back most of the bounce off the 2026-08-18 floor at $8.64 and RSI(14) slipped to 45.8; the only dated item inside a week — 2026-08-27 — belongs to a rival design's licence docket at NuScale's own… | A daily close below $8.64 (the 2026-08-18 range floor) re-opens the 2026-07-20 close of $7.96 and the 2026-07-17 low of $7.21; secondary: 2026-08-27 passing with the Clinch River comment record closed, no NuScale site named at TVA, and still no company release after 2026-08-05. |
Quantum computing
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $42.05 | Broken gov-capital quantum leg, now publicly capitulated: seven-plus down weeks, an inverse-ETF complex up to +108%, and Cramer warning it off air on 2026-07-23. Washed out but not based, heading into a binary Q2 print (est. 2026-08-05 to 08-12) that referees the disputed Pentagon-revenue composition. No edge in a fresh long at current levels. | A weekly close below $36 confirms the breakdown extends toward the $30 shelf and ends the base-building case; a reclaim of $44 on volume is the first sign the leg is repairable. Secondary: a Q2 print (est. 2026-08-05 to 08-12) with revenue under the $65M guide low or an FY cut from $260–270M. |
| QUBT | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $8.46 | The 2026-08-21 group bounce round-tripped in one session — the 2026-08-24 close of $8.24 gave back the move to $8.92, with IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave all off ~8.5% the same day. Price sits two cents above the $8.22 shelf, under a 50-day at $8.88 and 200-day at $9.71 that were both falling on 2026-08-21. No company-dated news since the 2026-08-10 Q2 print; the bid is entirely… | A weekly close below $8.22 returns price to the July 2026 $7.30–$8.22 range with the 50-day and 200-day both declining from their 2026-08-21 readings; secondarily an S-3 takedown, 424B5 or disclosed ATM usage dated after 2026-08-10. |
| RGTI | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $16.94 | Quantum pure-play basket is in outright hype-cycle deflation: RGTI ~$14.19 (2026-07-17), -27% MoM, and the $14 shelf that held the May CHIPS-stake gap and the June executive-order pop has broken. Inverse quantum ETFs printing +108% and the Quantinuum IPO landing into the tape mark late-cycle supply. No company binary until the Q2 print ~2026-08-10. Nothing in the structure supports a fresh entry here. | A weekly close below $12.53 takes out the 52-week low and confirms the quantum pure-play theme has gone from saturated to dead, with no bid until a company-specific contract event; corroborating tells would be an ATM-issuance 8-K filed into any bounce, or the ~2026-08-10 Q2 print passing without a named Fortune-500 Cepheus customer. |
Semi foundry & equipment
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEHR | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $95.59 | Wafer-level burn-in toll on AI silicon: FY2027 guided $130–150M against $50.0M in FY2026, guide unamended. But the 2026-07-21 shelf at $98.91 gave way on the 2026-08-24 close of $96.43 — a fifth straight lower close from $145.61 (2026-08-17), now under the $110 low end of published targets. 2026-08-25 Jefferies and 2026-09-10 Lake Street are the dated chances to name a… | A weekly close below $96.43 confirms the loss of the 2026-07-21 shelf at $98.91, breached on the 2026-08-24 daily close, leaving $70.00 (2026-07-28) as the next dated closing reference. Secondary: 2026-09-10 Lake Street passing with no second distinct hyperscaler named for AI-ASIC wafer-level burn-in, after 2026-08-19 and 2026-08-25. |
| ASML | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $1744.16 | The $1,740 July band floor is being tested: the 2026-08-24 close of $1,740.13 sits on it after the $1,805 shelf reclaim failed. Consensus has been flat at $2,195 for a fourth reading, nothing ASML-dated resolves before 2026-10-14, and the 2026-08-26 Nvidia print is the only input before the week settles. | A weekly close below $1740 surrenders the July band floor, confirms the failed reclaim of the $1,805 shelf from the 2026-08-14 settlement at $1,844.08 and re-exposes the $1,686.01 late-July low; secondary condition is the 2026-08-26 Nvidia print passing with no close back above $1,805 and no ASML-dated event until 2026-10-14. |
| AXTI | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $67.45 | The prior break level failed: 2026-08-24 closed $65.40, roughly a third below the 2026-08-17 intraday $97.79 and back at the $64.25 April secondary price, erasing almost the whole post-Q2 gap while contracted InP demand keeps building. The 2026-08-26 NVIDIA print is a sector event; the first company-specific number is not until 2026-10-29. | A weekly close below $62 completes the round trip of the 2026-07-31 post-Q2 gap and takes out the $64.25 April secondary price. Secondary: the 2026-08-26 NVIDIA print passing without a reclaim of the $73.8 shelf, or the Lumentum $43,500,000 initial deposit unconfirmed past ~2026-09-04. |
| TSEM | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $212.71 | Picks-and-shovels silicon-photonics foundry leg has de-rated straight into the range where July's pre-arranged CEO sales printed: the 2026-08-24 close of $211.10 sits inside $210.33–$211.27 and 33.4% under the 2026-06-22 high, with no downgrade, no guidance change and no company disclosure dated after 2026-08-12. The 2026-08-25/26 Jefferies appearance is the first venue… | A daily close below the published invalidation level completes the round-trip beneath the $210.33–$211.27 July insider-sale range and puts price under the entire post-Q2 advance. Secondary: both the 2026-08-25/26 Jefferies and 2026-09-10 Benchmark-StoneX appearances passing with no reiteration of the $3.6B FY2028 framework. |
| UMC | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $19.60 | Silicon-photonics pivot re-rated the ADR ~3x, but the July blowoff to $28.96 round-tripped -26% to $21.25 in days while sell-side finally upgraded (Macquarie Outperform 2026-07-14) — late-stage distribution behaviour. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the leg resumes or the re-rate unwinds. | A weekly close below $19.00 takes out the June breakout shelf and confirms the $28.96 July high as the cycle top; secondarily, a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 that meets revenue but compresses gross margin, showing the mature-node price war reasserting under an AI headline. |
Space economy
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $62.01 | Deployment-cadence leg goes dead: the 2026-08-24 close of $62.35 (-9.2%, per GuruFocus) erased the 08-21 reclaim and broke below the 08-20 intraday low of $62.89, with BlueBirds 14/15/16 still undated 15 days after "ready to ship shortly." At $62.35 the tape prices below even Barclays' $65 Underweight target and below the $79.57 conversion price on the 2034 notes. | A weekly close below $56 loses the early-August low of $55.74 and confirms the post-print leg is extending; secondary: no dated BlueBird 14/15/16 launch release by 2026-09-30, or beta service re-dated past 2026-12-31. |
| PL | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $21.55 | The 8/21 bounce failed in one session: the 8/24 close of $21.57 sits four cents above the $21.53 8/3 shelf that defines the break, with the 50-day/200-day inversion widening to $1.53 at the 8/25 read ($25.11 vs $26.64). The unrevised 6/4 guide (FY27 $425–441M, Q2 $102–107M) is the last number in the space complex not marked down with its share price; the 9/3 Q2 FY27 print… | A weekly close below $21.53 surrenders the 8/3 pre-gap shelf and the 8/4 gap, reopening the $19.16–$19.83 July range; secondarily, the 9/3 Q2 FY27 print cutting the $425–441M FY27 guide or Q2 revenue landing under $102M. |
| SPCX | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $137.95 | Flight 14's ship catch is deferred (Musk, 2026-08-20); the mission is now a first orbital-class flight with ~20 Starlink V3, FCC window opening 2026-08-28. NVIDIA's 2026-08-24 release dated orbital compute — Starmind gen-1 on Vera Rubin NVL72 — to Q4 2027. Price sat back on the $135 IPO price at the 2026-08-24 close, with no close above $146.15 since 2026-08-12; the… | A weekly close below $133 puts price back inside the 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-11 shelf and reduces the 2026-08-21 reclaim of the $135 IPO price to a one-session excursion. Secondary: the ~2026-09-09 tranche passing with another lower high and still no close above $146.15. |
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How should you read this watchlist?
- Conviction / status is the model's current tag, not a recommendation. LOW = interesting but the setup isn't here yet; HELD = on the active research bench as a continuation idea.
- Archetype is the playbook the dossier engine assigns (Dominant Narrative, Picks & Shovels, 2nd-Order AI, Legacy Pivot, Binary Catalyst, Retail Squeeze, Emergent).
- "Watching for" is the concrete public level or event that confirms the entry or invalidates the thesis — analyst price targets, technical bases, catalyst dates. Never positioning.
Research only. No positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed. Per-name prices are reads via FMP (a US exchange fallback) as of 2026-08-25; theses and levels are drawn from the live ticker dossiers.