The live book · 28 held · 202 lines armed
What we hold. And the line under it.
As of 10 September 2026, we hold 28 names, and the ledger below draws every open name against the exact level that would prove it wrong — 202 on the 10 September 2026 close.
Held = on the book now. Every other name here publishes a kill line and is drawn against it. The scored picks are counted on the scoreboard (open commitments), and the forward theme-bets on forecasts (open bets).
On the record
The names we hold, and the reasoning behind every one.
Most books are a logo wall published a quarter late, if at all. This one is live and reasoned — ticker, conviction, archetype, theme, thesis, and the exact condition that would prove each one wrong, published the day it's decided.
Every claim here is dated and falsifiable — see how each one gets scored in public.
Every open name against its line
28 names have closed through their lines on this close, and 3 are sitting on theirs. 202 of the 204 open names can be measured on the 10 September 2026 close; the rest publish no parseable level.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 10 September 2026; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Held · the book
2867 of the 271 names below already carry a verdict, and each is badged with it. A fired kill line ends the pick, not the coverage: the model keeps re-reading the name and the dossier keeps a current thesis, but the resolved pick is closed and counted on the scoreboard rather than on this board. How a pick resolves →
- AMDMEDIUM
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Cyclical recovery Mega-cap AI platformsAdvanced Micro Devices’ Helios thesis depends on an operating OpenAI deployment in the fourth quarter of 2026. September 9 analyst target changes extend favorable coverage, but delayed activation or a weekly close below $456 would invalidate the case.
Kill line A weekly close below $456 invalidates the September recovery by undercutting the 2026-09-03 market close of $456.16; independently, AMD or OpenAI postponing Helios activation beyond Q4 2026 breaks the deployment timetable.
Covered since catalyst today - HPEMEDIUM
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Special situation AI datacenter infrastructureHewlett Packard Enterprise's AI and networking earnings upgrade has stronger price support at the 2026-09-09 close of $58.90. Confirmation requires a weekly close above $54.44 after the 2026-09-30 Networking Investor Day with the fiscal 2027 growth framework intact; a weekly close below $50 invalidates the case.
Kill line A weekly close below $50 invalidates the earnings-repricing thesis; a reduction in management's fiscal 2027 revenue-growth framework of 13–17%, announced on 2026-09-02, separately breaks the fundamental premise.
Covered since catalyst in 19d - HUMMEDIUM
Humana Inc.
Compounder Managed care & health servicesHumana's Medicare Advantage margin reset supports continuation above the $409.42 adjusted reference high before a daily close below $383. Bernstein maintained its $425 analyst target on 2026-09-09, while October Star Ratings leave the 2028 operating objective unresolved.
Kill line A daily close below $383 invalidates the continuation thesis by losing the advance above the 2026-08-31 adjusted reference close of $383.23.
Covered since catalyst in 27d - IRDMMEDIUM
Iridium Communications Inc
Earnings inflection Space economyIridium Communications’ merger-discount thesis depends on Rocket Lab completing the acquisition announced on 2026-06-29. The 2026-09-24 vote tests shareholder approval; completion before a weekly close below $43.50 settles the published case.
Kill line A weekly close below $43.50 invalidates the merger-premium structure near the market’s $43.52 pre-announcement close on 2026-06-26; formal termination or certified shareholder rejection separately ends the completion thesis.
Covered since catalyst in 13d - JBHTMEDIUM
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
Compounder Freight & logisticsCyclical industrialsJ.B. Hunt’s freight recovery requires stronger intermodal pricing and continued profit growth at the estimated 2026-10-15 report. Confirmation requires fuel-excluded pricing growth above Q2’s 1% year-over-year increase and rising intermodal operating income before a weekly close below $265 invalidates the structure.
Kill line A weekly close below $265 invalidates the published freight-recovery structure, measured against the adjusted daily-bar series used for the 2026-09-09 reference close.
Covered since catalyst in 5d - MRCYMEDIUM
Mercury Systems Inc
Special situation Defense & aerospacePlayed out 24 July 2026 · still under coverage
Defense-electronics turnaround still re-rating on record bookings and a promised FCF turn, but the stock has given back ~20% from its $128.45 ATH and now chops near the analyst median (~$103) into a binary ~Aug 10-18 Q4/full-year print. Consolidation, not acceleration — the move is maturing into the report.
Kill line A weekly close below $94 loses the breakout base and rising 50-day shelf underpinning the advance. Secondary: a Q4 FY26 print (~2026-08-10 to 08-18) with free cash flow failing to turn positive or book-to-bill under 1.0, or defense-electronics flipping to saturated as KTOS/AVAV break their July lows.
Covered since catalyst 1d ago - MUMEDIUM
Micron Technology, Inc.
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memoryMicron Technology's contracted memory revenue supports a durability thesis tested by its 2026-09-30 results against June's $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion revenue guidance and approximately 86% adjusted gross margin. A weekly close below $958 invalidates the rebound before confirmation.
Kill line A weekly close below $958 breaks the rebound structure retained in the 2026-09-09 dossier. Secondary failure: 2026-09-30 revenue below the lower end of June's $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion guidance or adjusted gross margin below 86%.
Covered since catalyst in 19d - NTAPMEDIUM
NetApp, Inc.
Special situation AI datacenter infrastructureNetApp's AI storage expansion must meet its September guidance before a weekly close below $164 breaks the recovery thesis. Fiscal-Q2 revenue of at least $2.025 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of at least 67.0%, with the September 2 annual revenue outlook maintained, would confirm the case.
Kill line A weekly close below $164 breaks the recovery thesis; fiscal-Q2 revenue below $2.025 billion, non-GAAP gross margin below 67.0%, or a reduction to the fiscal-2027 revenue outlook issued on 2026-09-02 independently invalidates the operating case.
Covered since catalyst in 18d - OKTAMEDIUM
Okta, Inc.
Defensive CybersecurityInvalidated 22 June 2026 · still under coverage
Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme accelerating, this leg maturing; open risk is paying up for a stretched 52-week-high tape.
Kill line A weekly close below $110 loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA; secondary confirmation would be a cRPO/billings/net-new-seat deceleration at the ~2026-08-26 print that resets the multiple.
Covered since catalyst in 11d - OSCRMEDIUM
Oscar Health, Inc.
Earnings inflection Managed care & health servicesOscar Health's next valuation leg needs quantified 2027 growth at its September 16, 2026 Investor Day. Confirmation requires that disclosure and a subsequent weekly close above $32.76 before a weekly close below $29.83; absence of the specified growth framework also ends the case.
Kill line A weekly close below $29.83 breaks the post-August 6 earnings structure. Separately, September 16, 2026 passing without either a quantified 2027 membership range or a quantified 2027 premium framework ends the information-catalyst thesis.
Covered since catalyst in 5d - RXOMEDIUM
RXO, Inc.
Compounder Freight & logisticsCyclical industrialsInvalidated 31 July 2026 · still under coverage
Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground — bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to consensus; the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print (adj EBITDA guide $27–37M vs $6M Q1) is the binary the whole re-rate discounts.
Kill line A weekly close below $24 loses the May–June breakout shelf and consolidation base; secondary breaks are Q2 adjusted EBITDA (~2026-08-05) printing below the $27–37M guide floor, or the RXO Curve spot index rolling over.
Covered since catalyst in 5d - SIMOMEDIUM
Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memorySilicon Motion's storage-controller expansion needs third-quarter 2026 revenue of at least $519 million to validate the recovery before a weekly close below $230 breaks it. Its September 9 certification adds no revenue guidance; reported sales settle the case.
Kill line A weekly close below $230 breaks the recovery thesis beneath the market's 2026-08-13 shelf at $238.51 and 2026-09-03 session low near $231.51. Reported third-quarter 2026 revenue below management's $519 million guidance floor independently defeats the operating case.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - TXGMEDIUM
10x Genomics, Inc.
Special situation Medtech & diagnostics10x Genomics' Atera launch and Parse patent verdict support a recovery thesis tested by a weekly close above $65.12 before a weekly close below $58.57. The September 9 daily close of $67.29 advances that test, while shipment execution and the requested injunction remain unresolved.
Kill line A weekly close below $58.57 breaks the August shelf identified in the September 9 published analysis and ends the continuation thesis; deferral of the disclosed second-half Atera shipment plan into 2027 would separately undermine the operating case.
Covered since catalyst in 13d - XMTRMEDIUM
Xometry, Inc.
Theme leader AI datacenter infrastructureXometry's AI manufacturing thesis depends on marketplace growth delivering its August 4 profit guidance. Third-quarter revenue of at least $234 million and adjusted EBITDA of at least $16 million, with the annual growth outlook maintained, would confirm the case; a weekly close below $85 would invalidate the price structure.
Kill line A weekly close below $85 breaks the June 2, 2026 public-offering reference; third-quarter revenue below $234 million, adjusted EBITDA below $16 million or a reduction in the August 4 full-year revenue-growth outlook also rejects the operating case.
Covered since catalyst 1d ago - ARCBLOW
ArcBest Corporation
Special situation Freight & logisticsCyclical industrialsArcBest’s cost reductions must preserve margins: Q3 2026 recurring savings and an adjusted Asset-Based operating ratio at or below Q2’s 90.8% would confirm the case. A weekly close below $134.45 invalidates the price-supported thesis first.
Kill line A weekly close below $134.45 invalidates the rebound component at the research threshold published on 2026-09-07; a Q3 2026 adjusted Asset-Based operating ratio above 90.8% separately fails the margin-preservation condition.
Covered since catalyst today - ATEXLOW
Anterix Inc.
Defensive Industrial power & gridAnterix's spectrum-conversion thesis requires another utility agreement with disclosed payments before a weekly close below $85.31 invalidates it. The 2026-09-09 daily close of $83.93 is below that reference but does not itself establish a weekly breach.
Kill line A weekly close below $85.31 breaks the 2026-08-20 support reference and invalidates the setup before another utility spectrum agreement with disclosed contractual payments confirms conversion.
Covered since catalyst in 10d - CNCLOW
Centene Corporation
Earnings inflection Managed care & health servicesCentene's margin-repair case requires sustained earnings guidance and a weekly breakout above $68.72 by its 2026-10-27 results. The 2026-09-09 daily close of $64.06 leaves continuation under pressure; a weekly close below $65 or a reduction of fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance above $4.80 invalidates the case.
Kill line A weekly close below $65 ends the September continuation thesis. Withdrawal or reduction of fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance above $4.80 independently breaks the fundamental case; failure to close weekly above $68.72 by 2026-10-27 ends the time-bounded thesis.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - DAVELOW
Dave Inc.
Compounder Fintech & consumer creditDave Inc.'s growth-and-credit-quality story supports a recovery case, completed by a weekly close above the September 3 reference close of $390.86 before a weekly close below $358 invalidates it. The September 9, 2026 close of $361.88 leaves confirmation unresolved and the evidence weak.
Kill line A weekly close below $358 invalidates the published recovery case; a reduction below the August 5, 2026 full-year operating-revenue guidance floor of $725 million separately breaks the operating premise.
Covered since catalyst 1d ago - DELLLOW
Dell Technologies Inc.
Cyclical recovery AI datacenter infrastructureDell Technologies’ AI-server backlog must convert into roughly $19 billion of next-quarter revenue while ISG operating margin holds at least 15.0%. The next quarterly results test those September 1, 2026 benchmarks; management’s margin caveat keeps conviction low despite September 9’s analyst target increase.
Kill line A weekly close below $456 breaks the pre-results structure beneath the August 31, 2026 close of $456.01. Secondary failure occurs if Dell reduces its roughly $19 billion next-quarter AI-server revenue outlook, reports below it, or reports ISG operating margin below 15.0%.
Covered since catalyst 1d ago - HNGELOW
Hinge Health, Inc.
Compounder Managed care & health servicesPlayed out 18 June 2026 · still under coverage
Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print.
Kill line A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to saturated or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor.
Covered since - LSTRLOW
Landstar System, Inc.
Defensive Freight & logisticsLandstar System's truckload repricing needs to produce further earnings improvement. The 2026-10-27 results confirm the case if truck revenue per load grows year over year and earnings per share exceed Q2's $1.44 before a weekly close below $167.
Kill line A weekly close below $167 breaks the published price structure. Separately, no year-over-year growth in truck revenue per load in the 2026-10-27 results invalidates the operating repricing thesis.
Covered since catalyst in 3d - MRVLLOW
Marvell Technology, Inc.
Cyclical recovery Mega-cap AI platformsInvalidated 10 July 2026 · still under coverage
Custom-silicon ASIC royalty story intact, but the AI-semi theme is mid-correction — chips posted their worst month vs software on record (7/17) with money rotating into energy. Buying a falling sector with no confirmed higher low is the trap; the setup needs the $250-255 May shelf to hold before re-engaging.
Kill line a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the May breakout shelf and rising weekly 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: Broadcom disclosing incremental custom-ASIC share at AWS Trainium or Microsoft MAIA, a Google/Marvell TPU walk-back, or hyperscalers guiding FY27 capex flat-to-down on the late-July prints.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - SEZLLOW
Sezzle Inc.
Compounder Fintech & consumer creditSezzle's recovery thesis is that profitable growth can repair its post-earnings price structure. A daily close above the 2026-08-17 recovery level of $129.87 would establish the case before a weekly close below $114 invalidates it; the 2026-09-09 close of $117.14 has instead lost the August 18 shelf.
Kill line A weekly close below $114 invalidates the recovery thesis by undercutting the 2026-09-01 closing low of $114.52, following the 2026-09-09 daily close below the August 18 shelf of $117.18.
Covered since catalyst in 4d - SNXLOW
TD SYNNEX Corporation
Theme leader AI datacenter infrastructureTD SYNNEX's Hyve business links AI hardware demand to earnings; the 2026-09-24 results test whether growth exceeds guidance. The case requires revenue above $19.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS above $4.75 before a weekly close below $255 invalidates the September reclaim.
Kill line A weekly close below $255 forfeits the September reclaim of the $255.70 market pivot. Separately, fiscal Q3 non-GAAP EPS below management's $4.25 guidance floor on 2026-09-24 invalidates the earnings-transmission thesis.
Covered since catalyst in 13d - STXLOW
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memoryPlayed out 31 July 2026 · still under coverage
Maturing AI-storage supercycle with sell-side still chasing: Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight $1,100 (7/10) and Citi Street-high $1,240 (7/13). But the DRAM ETF is down ~30% and Seagate's Q4 FY26 print ~2026-07-22 is a binary about two trading days out — a late, crowded name gated by earnings.
Kill line A weekly close below $780 (loses the June breakout base and the low end of raised sell-side targets); a Q4 FY26 guide (~2026-07-22) that walks back nearline pricing or exabyte growth would confirm the theme flipping to saturated.
Covered since catalyst 1d ago - UMCLOW
United Microelectronic Corp.
Special situation Semi foundry & equipmentInvalidated 7 August 2026 · still under coverage
Silicon-photonics pivot re-rated the ADR ~3x, but the July blowoff to $28.96 round-tripped -26% to $21.25 in days while sell-side finally upgraded (Macquarie Outperform 2026-07-14) — late-stage distribution behaviour. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the leg resumes or the re-rate unwinds.
Kill line A weekly close below $19.00 takes out the June breakout shelf and confirms the $28.96 July high as the cycle top; secondarily, a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 that meets revenue but compresses gross margin, showing the mature-node price war reasserting under an AI headline.
Covered since catalyst in 3d - WDCLOW
Western Digital Corporation
Cyclical recovery AI chips & memoryInvalidated 6 August 2026 · still under coverage
The 29% bounce off the 2026-07-28 low stalled: WDC closed $527.22 on 2026-08-03, −3.23% on a day its sector rose 0.58%, back under a rising 50-day at $562.65. Consensus (~$3.69B / $3.31–$3.35) still sits above the company's own $3.65B ±$100M / $3.25 ±$0.15 guide, so the 2026-08-05 print — 16.8% implied — is the binary.
Kill line A daily close below $462 surrenders the 2026-07-28/29 closing floor ($462.04–$463.51) and re-opens the $422.11 spike low. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q4 print landing at or under the $3.65B / $3.25 guide midpoints, or a September quarter not guided up sequentially against Seagate's ~$4.1B bar.
Covered since - XPOLOW
XPO, Inc.
Compounder Freight & logisticsCyclical industrialsXPO, Inc.'s shipment-growth story requires continued volume growth and a third-quarter adjusted LTL operating ratio below 81% at the confirmed 2026-10-29 results. A weekly close below $185 invalidates the price case first; the 2026-09-09 daily close of $184.25 already lies below that threshold without establishing a weekly breach.
Kill line A weekly close below $185 invalidates the September price thesis. Separately, a Q3 2026 adjusted LTL operating ratio of 81% or higher fails management's below-81% guidance issued on 2026-07-30.
Covered since catalyst in 20d
Under research
Browse by theme →A name is under research when a theme the model is currently producing carries it, or when the model's own conviction still stakes a claim on it — recomputed every theme run, not maintained by hand. 243 names qualify today; the full library holds 929. The ledger above draws every open name that publishes a line, held or not.
Common questions
- Is this a real portfolio?
- It's our live book on a paper account — the names we hold and are researching, each with a thesis and a published kill line. The value is in whether the reasoning holds up; see the scoreboard.
- What else is on this page besides the held names?
- Every open name that publishes a kill line is drawn on the ledger. A name under research carries no position — it carries a dated thesis and the level that would prove it wrong. The full library is browsable by theme and conviction.
- How does a name get onto this page?
- It is derived, not curated. Every trading day the model rebuilds its theme clusters; a name inside a current theme — or one whose conviction the model still stakes — is under research, and a name that stops meeting either for two weeks comes off. Held names come from the account itself, not from the themes.
- How often does the book change?
- The 56 names the model holds, has just exited, or that sit in a theme it is currently calling accelerating are re-read every trading day — every one of them was read in the current session. The wider 873-name coverage universe cycles behind them: its median name was last read 3 sessions ago, and no dossier is more than 8 sessions old. The board here reflects the latest synced dossier status, and every name is dated, so the cadence is checkable name by name.
- Why do some names show a resolved pick?
- Because a fired kill line ends the pick, not the coverage. When a thesis is invalidated or plays out it is dated, scored and kept on the scoreboard — and the model carries on re-reading the name, so the dossier keeps a current thesis and the name stays on this board with its verdict badged.