QBTS · D-Wave Quantum Inc.

The thesis

D-Wave Quantum's shares closed at $11.63 on 22 October 2026, 68.6% below the 52-week high of $37.06, and the business case turns on the Q3 report, estimated for about 5 November 2026, showing whether the booked $20 million system sale entered revenue. The price case broke earlier in October: the close of $14.57 on 9 October 2026 fell under the $16.18 July low, and the $13.00 level in the prior note has since given way.

D-Wave's 6 August 2026 Q2 release put that sale in bookings but not in revenue. Q2 revenue was $3.1 million, and Benzinga reported on 6 August 2026 that sales of $3.076 million missed the $4.025 million estimate. No filing or announcement since then shows the sale moving into revenue.

The narrative is maturing: company news kept coming after 9 October 2026, including a multi-year SkyWater Technology manufacturing agreement on 13 October 2026 and the arrival of an Advantage2 system in Italy on 15 October 2026, yet the adjusted close fell from $14.57 to $11.63 over the same stretch. New headlines have not lifted the shares.

Bullish and bearish views on D-Wave Quantum Inc.

The bull case on D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS), in brief: Booked system sale can still reach revenue. The bear case: Revenue is missing its estimates.

Bull case

• Booked system sale can still reach revenue. The 6 August 2026 Q2 release reported a $20 million system sale in first-half bookings, with revenue due in later quarters. Recognition in Q3 would be the first reported revenue from it.

• Cash covers the near term. The Q2 release reported $546.2 million in cash and marketable securities at 30 June 2026. The 8 September 2026 Form 8-K added a conditional federal award of up to $100 million.
• Manufacturing supply is secured. Benzinga reported on 13 October 2026 that D-Wave signed a multi-year agreement with SkyWater Technology for specialized semiconductor process development and manufacturing.
• European system deployment is under way. D-Wave said on 15 October 2026 that its Advantage2 computer arrived in Italy for installation under the previously announced €10 million Swiss Quantum Technology deal. The headline does not say whether this is the $20 million sale booked in Q2.
• Analyst targets sit far above the price. Investing.com listed a 12-month average target of about $35.25 across 15 analysts, with individual targets such as Wedbush's $40 dated 3 August 2026. Those targets predate the October decline.

Bear case

• Revenue is missing its estimates. Q2 earnings per share were $(0.13) against a $(0.10) estimate, and sales missed by about $0.9 million (Benzinga, 6 August 2026). First-half bookings of $35.5 million compare with first-half revenue of $5.9 million.
• Losses are large against sales. The Q2 adjusted EBITDA loss was $37.1 million on $3.1 million of revenue (Q2 release, 6 August 2026).
• Finance chief departed. Benzinga reported on 25 August 2026 that CFO John Markovich would retire effective 2 September 2026, with Greg Golkov as acting CFO. Benzinga reported the shares falling sharply on 26 August 2026. No permanent CFO appears in company news through 16 October 2026.
• Federal award carries conditions and issuance. The 8 September 2026 Form 8-K described a conditional award that contemplates common stock being issued to the Commerce Department. The full $100 million is not cash received.
• Price keeps breaking lower. The 22 October 2026 close of $11.63 is down 40.4% over three months and under both the $16.18 low of 29 July 2026 and the $13.00 level from the prior note.

Price setup

The adjusted close on 22 October 2026 was $11.63, down from $14.57 on 9 October 2026. The shares are 68.6% below the $37.06 52-week high. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge where readings under 30 mark heavy selling, was 19.3 on 22 October 2026.

The price has no support from prior July lows, which now sit above it. The nearest round-number level below is $10.00.

Crowding evidence is thin on the buying side: the shares are far below their highs, and the 8 September 2026 federal award contemplates share issuance to the Commerce Department. An earnings report is about two weeks away.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~5 November 2026, est. Q3 2026 results. D-Wave had not confirmed the date in sources reviewed on 23 October 2026. The 2025 report came on 6 November 2025. The release shows whether the $20 million system sale reached revenue.
• ~5 November 2026, est. Bookings and backlog commentary. Management remarks decide whether the $40.7 million of remaining performance obligations is being recognised on schedule.

What would change the view

The case breaks if the Q3 report defers the booked $20 million system sale beyond that quarter, or if Q3 revenue stays near the $3.1 million of Q2 while the adjusted EBITDA loss stays near $37.1 million. A daily close below $10.00 would also end it.

The case improves if Q3 revenue includes the system sale and management reaffirms recognition of the $40.7 million backlog on its stated timetable. A named permanent CFO and disbursement terms for the federal award would remove two open questions.

What it trades with

D-Wave trades with other listed Quantum computing companies, and sector headlines move it, such as the 16 October 2026 comments by New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani on quantum as a multi-trillion-dollar industry. Its annealing hardware and its customers' budgets are specific to D-Wave. Broad risk appetite for high-growth, unprofitable shares also matters to the price.