Watching
XMTR · Xometry, Inc.
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 9 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A weekly close below $92, which would put the shares back under the 50-day moving average MarketBeat reported on 5 October 2026. Third-quarter revenue below $234 million, adjusted EBITDA below $16 million, or a cut to the 33–34% full-year growth outlook would also break the case.
Open pick Medium conviction, opened at $104.23. Since then +6.6% against the S&P 500's +1.9% (+4.7 pp). Kill line at open: $85.00 (weekly close); graded by at the latest.
Catalyst (in 23 days)
How picks are graded →The thesis
Xometry's AI-assisted manufacturing marketplace has kept its shares close to their record on the strength of guidance raised in August. The third-quarter report, expected around 4 November 2026 but not yet dated by the company, settles it. The test is the 4 August 2026 guidance: revenue of $234–236 million, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) of $16–17 million, and full-year revenue growth of 33–34%. Q2 2026 release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1
The shares eased after the 6 October record close of $110.66. Adjusted daily closes show a $106.48 close on 8 October 2026, 3.8% below that high and up 10.1% over three months. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) cooled to 61.8 from 72.4 at the record close.
The narrative is maturing: JPMorgan, Citizens and Rosenblatt all set $120 targets between 24 August and 22 September 2026, and no target change or company announcement has followed since 22 September. Expectations, more than new facts, set the price until the November report.
Bullish and bearish views on Xometry, Inc.
The bull case on Xometry, Inc. (XMTR), in brief: Guidance was raised after a large beat. The bear case: The price has nearly caught up with targets.
Bull case
- Guidance was raised after a large beat. Second-quarter revenue was $229.3 million, up 41% year over year, and marketplace revenue was $215 million, up 45%. Full-year growth guidance rose to 33–34% from 27–28% on 4 August 2026. Q2 release
- The third-quarter bar sits below the run rate. The $234–236 million range equals 30–31% growth, against 41% in the second quarter, per company guidance of 4 August 2026. A quarter near the second-quarter pace would clear it.
- Profit is scaling from a low starting point. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of $16–17 million compares with $6.1 million in the third quarter of 2025. Full-year guidance of $60–62 million compares with $18.5 million in 2025, per the 4 August 2026 release.
- Cash covers the losses. Cash was $517 million at 30 June 2026, after $248 million of net offering proceeds and a $50.0 million private placement with Siemens, as reported on 4 August 2026.
- Sell-side support is broad. JPMorgan initiated at Overweight with a $120 target on 24 August, Citizens reiterated Market Outperform at $120 on 21 September, and Rosenblatt raised its target to $120 from $110 on 22 September 2026. Wedbush's $126 target from its 16 July 2026 initiation is the highest listed by MarketBeat.
Bear case
- The price has nearly caught up with targets. MarketBeat's consensus target was $113.18 across 13 analysts on 5 October 2026, with 8 buy, 4 hold and 1 sell rating. The 8 October close of $106.48 sits just under it. MarketBeat, 5 October 2026
- The shares trade well above their averages. MarketBeat put the 50-day moving average at $92.03 and the 200-day at $79.57 on 5 October 2026, against a $106.48 close on 8 October. A miss would have a long way to fall before reaching either average.
- Insiders sold near the high. Executive Chair Randolph Altschuler sold 10,000 Class A shares at an average $104.04 on 1 October and 5,721 shares at $103.32 on 2 October 2026, about $1.63 million in total, per SEC Form 4 filings.
- GAAP results remain negative. The company guides to adjusted EBITDA, while the second quarter of 2026 still showed a net loss of $5.31 million, per the 4 August 2026 release. MarketBeat listed a market value of $5.31 billion on 5 October 2026.
Price setup
The 52-week high close is $110.66, set on 6 October 2026, per adjusted daily closes. The shares closed at $106.48 on 8 October, two sessions later. The 5 October close of $107.70 was the prior record.
The 50-day moving average stood at $92.03 on 5 October 2026, per MarketBeat, and the $92 area is the level the price case rests on. The RSI reading of 61.8 on 8 October sits below the 70 level commonly read as overbought, after touching 72.4 on 6 October.
Crowding signs are visible. Institutional ownership was 97.31% per MarketBeat on 5 October 2026. Benzinga listed Xometry in its "Stock Whisper" index of names drawing unusual trader interest on 12 September 2026. Executive sales landed in the first week of October, about a month before the report.
Catalysts, next 30 days
- ~20 October 2026, est.: Company announcement of the third-quarter results date. Xometry announced the 2025 date on 21 October 2025.
- ~4 November 2026, est.: Third-quarter 2026 results and conference call, unconfirmed by the company. The report tests $234–236 million of revenue, $16–17 million of adjusted EBITDA and the 33–34% full-year growth outlook. It is the first full quarter reported under CEO Sanjeev Singh Sahni, who took the role on 1 July 2026.
What would change the view
The operating case breaks if third-quarter revenue lands below $234 million, adjusted EBITDA below $16 million, or management cuts the 33–34% full-year growth outlook. A third-quarter marketplace gross margin below the year-earlier level would show growth being bought with pricing.
On price, a weekly close below $92 would put the shares back under the 50-day moving average MarketBeat reported on 5 October 2026, and erase most of the advance since then. Broader insider selling outside tax withholding or pre-set trading plans before the report would also weaken the case.
What it trades with
Xometry trades as a second-order beneficiary of artificial intelligence: its marketplace uses machine-learning pricing to match buyers of custom parts with manufacturers. Its revenue tracks industrial production and manufacturing spending, so it carries cyclical-industrial risk alongside growth-stock valuation risk. The $50.0 million Siemens private placement disclosed on 4 August 2026 ties it to industrial-software partners. With institutional ownership at 97.31%, fund flows out of high-multiple growth names can move the shares independently of company news.
Notes
- Dual-class structure: Class A trades publicly; Class B, held by founders including Executive Chair Randolph Altschuler, carries super-voting rights.
- Adjusted EBITDA is the metric management guides to; GAAP results remain negative, with a Q2 2026 net loss of $5.31M.
- Capital structure includes $250M of 0.75% convertible senior notes due 2030 plus residual 1.00% notes due 2027.
- Many Xometry insider sales are Rule 10b5-1 executions, option exercises, tax withholding or estate transfers; each Form 4 footnote states which.
- Third-party short-interest figures for Xometry diverge widely, from 5.6% to 13.01% of float, so no single figure is reliable.
- Sanjeev Singh Sahni became CEO effective 1 July 2026; Q3 2026 is the first full quarter reported under him.
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