XMTR · Xometry, Inc. · Stock research

Last completed daily close $84.58 on 2026-08-24, 19.3% below the 52-week high of $104.85 on the split/dividend-adjusted series. RSI(14) 39.9. The shares are down 8.7% over three months.

XMTR — Xometry, Inc.

Current Thesis

The leg an investor is buying is a custom-manufacturing marketplace taking share fast enough to force two guidance raises inside one quarter: Q2 marketplace revenue $215.4M (+45% YoY), total revenue $229.280M against $215.137M consensus, and an FY2026 growth frame lifted on 2026-08-04 to 33–34% from the 27–28% set on 2026-05-07.

What has changed since the last update is the sponsorship, not the tape. On 2026-08-24 JP Morgan assumed coverage at Overweight with a $120 price target — above Citigroup's and Cantor Fitzgerald's $110 and above Rosenblatt's $110 from four sessions earlier — citing roughly 90,000 active buyers, about 5,000 active suppliers and a custom-manufacturing addressable market near $275B, and modelling revenue growth above 30% in H2 2026 and above 20% in 2027 (Investing.com summary of the note, 2026-08-24). The same session, Benzinga carried XMTR on a JPMorgan consumer-tech picks list. The close moved from $83.59 on 2026-08-21 to $84.58.

That is the seventh positive sell-side action in fourteen sessions — five target raises on 2026-08-05, Rosenblatt's Buy initiation on 2026-08-20, JP Morgan on 2026-08-24 — with no rating cut among them. Over the same stretch the stock went from a $96.26 close on 2026-08-14 to $84.58, and has now closed four consecutive sessions under $85.00, the price at which June's follow-on of 2,647,059 Class A shares was placed.

The narrative is saturated. The dating is in the response function. Rosenblatt's $110 initiation printed on 2026-08-20 into a close of $83.12, lower than the $84.59 of the prior session. The highest target on the tape arrived 2026-08-24 and the session added under a dollar. Three of the 2026-08-05 raise cohort are neutral-equivalent (Goldman Sachs $104, RBC $100, UBS $95), and a MarketBeat-syndicated compilation carried the aggregate recommendation as "Hold" on 2026-08-20. Coverage is broad, uniformly constructive, and the marginal bid it is drawing is small.

Nothing company-sourced is scheduled until the Q3 report, expected around 2026-11-03 — CEO Sanjeev Singh Sahni's first full reported quarter. August ISM Manufacturing on 2026-09-01 is the only independent demand read before then.

Bullish and bearish views on Xometry, Inc.

The model's bull view on Xometry, Inc. (XMTR), in brief: Marketplace revenue $215.4M, +45% YoY in Q2 (release 2026-08-04) against a 35–36% guide, a fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration. The bear view: Insider filings run one direction. CFO James Miln, Form 144 on 2026-08-06, 1,500 Class A shares, aggregate market value $135,420. CEO Sahni, Form 4 of 2026-08-18, 1,500 shares in an $88–$96 band under a plan adopted 2026-05-18. Director Emily Rollins, 2026-08-19, 5,000 options… Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Marketplace revenue $215.4M, +45% YoY in Q2 (release 2026-08-04) against a 35–36% guide, a fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration.
• Q3 guided $234–236M against $221.633M consensus with Adjusted EBITDA $16–17M; FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guided $60–62M versus $18.5M delivered in FY2025 (2026-08-04).
• JP Morgan's 2026-08-24 assumption puts hard operating numbers behind the frame: Q2 active buyers +26% YoY, enterprise accounts +23% YoY, international roughly 16% of 2025 revenue, trailing-twelve-month revenue growth 34% against a 22% revenue CAGR for 2022–2025.
• Siemens is a strategic holder, not just a channel. The 2026-05-06 collaboration agreement embeds Xometry's manufacturability, pricing and sourcing intelligence into Siemens Xcelerator, Designcenter and Supplyframe, alongside a Siemens investment of about $50M in Xometry.
• The demand backdrop confirmed once already: July ISM Manufacturing printed 55.6% on 2026-08-03, a four-year high.
• The 2026-08-24 close of $84.58 sits below every posted target in the current cohort, which spans UBS at $95 to JP Morgan at $120.

Bear Case

• Insider filings run one direction. CFO James Miln, Form 144 on 2026-08-06, 1,500 Class A shares, aggregate market value $135,420. CEO Sahni, Form 4 of 2026-08-18, 1,500 shares in an $88–$96 band under a plan adopted 2026-05-18. Director Emily Rollins, 2026-08-19, 5,000 options exercised at $12.32 and stock sold into $83.6073, $84.827 and $85.4666. Each open-market execution cleared lower than the one before it, and no open-market insider purchase has been filed against any of them.
• 85,582 Class A shares left Executive Chair Randolph Altschuler's reporting chain on 2026-08-20 — a transfer for no consideration from the 2021 Tigers Trust to trusts where he is neither trustee nor beneficiary (Form 4 signed 2026-08-21). No proceeds and no supply on the day; the consequence is that later disposals by those trusts do not appear on his Forms 4.
• The $85.00 follow-on level is now overhead. Closes of $84.59, $83.12, $83.59 and $84.58 on 2026-08-19 through 2026-08-24 all sit beneath it.
• No GAAP earnings to anchor the multiple. Q2 GAAP net loss $5.31M; trailing-twelve-month net income -$30.81M as of 2026-08-07. Price/sales stood at 5.9x against a 1.1x industry average on 2026-08-21.
• The upgrade cycle has spent its ammunition. Seven positive actions since 2026-08-05 with zero rating changes among the 2026-08-05 cohort leaves a reduction more available than an upgrade.
• Ten weeks of silence. No scheduled company disclosure between 2026-08-24 and roughly 2026-11-03.

Setup & Price Structure

• Daily closes: $96.26 on 2026-08-14, $89.75 on 2026-08-17, $84.59 on 2026-08-19, $83.12 on 2026-08-20, $83.59 on 2026-08-21, $84.58 on 2026-08-24. The whole advance off the $87.09 earnings-session close of 2026-08-04 has been given back.
• $85.00 is the level that matters near term: June's follow-on placement price, now capping rather than supporting after four consecutive closes below it.
• $80 is the structural floor of the post-follow-on range. Below it there is no marked shelf until the pre-print area.
• Repair would require a weekly close back above $85.00 and then the 2026-08-14 close of $96.26 being retaken — neither has been attempted since 2026-08-14.
• Momentum: RSI(14) 39.9 on 2026-08-24, with price 19.3% under the 52-week high of $104.85.
• Crowding and positioning observables, stated as observables: seven constructive sell-side actions in fourteen sessions; retail-facing valuation coverage rotating from "still overvalued" (GuruFocus, 2026-08-17) to "24% undervalued following its recent pullback" (Simply Wall St, 2026-08-21) in five sessions; five insider filings in eleven sessions with no offsetting purchase; and short-interest compilations that disagree — 5.6% to 6.13% depending on the vendor queried 2026-08-25, against 13.01% quoted elsewhere around 2026-08-21. The FINRA file is the arbiter, and the next two publications land inside the window below.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• ~2026-08-26 (est.) — FINRA publication of the 2026-08-14 short-interest settlement. First reading spanning both the run to $96.26 and the turn.
• 2026-09-01 — ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026. The only independent read on US custom-manufacturing demand before the Q3 print; tests whether July's 55.6% was a level or a spike.
• ~2026-09-03 (est.) — September sell-side conference season opens; no XMTR participation announced as of 2026-08-25. The company held a fireside chat at Citi's Global TMT conference on 2025-09-03.
• ~2026-09-10 (est.) — FINRA publication of the 2026-08-31 settlement. Shows whether a short base rebuilt into the decline or whether the selling was long liquidation and insider supply.
• ~2026-09-10 (est.) — Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology window, unannounced for XMTR in 2026; Xometry held a fireside chat there on 2025-09-10.
• Outside the window: ~2026-11-03 (est.) — Q3 2026 results, the next company-sourced datapoint of any kind and the grade on the $234–236M revenue and $16–17M Adjusted EBITDA guide.

What Would Change Our Mind

The structure that has to hold is the post-follow-on range floor near $80. The bear read gets confirmed if $85.00 keeps capping through September: a name that cannot reclaim its own June placement price with the highest target on the street freshly posted on 2026-08-24 is not converting sponsorship into demand. A weekly close below $80 removes the post-follow-on structure entirely, with no company disclosure due until roughly 2026-11-03 to arrest it.

Second, a macro break — August ISM Manufacturing printing under 52 on 2026-09-01 with New Orders back below 50 — would remove the demand confirmation that arrived with the 55.6% July print on 2026-08-03 and put the 33–34% FY2026 frame under a question no management commentary is scheduled to answer.

Third, a downgrade or a target reduction from Citigroup, Cantor Fitzgerald, Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital or UBS would mark the 2026-08-05 cohort turning.

Going the other way: two consecutive weekly closes above $96.26 would say the August distribution was absorbed, and an open-market Form 4 purchase by any officer or director would be the first insider datapoint contradicting the sequence since 2026-08-04.

Correlation Notes

• Protolabs (PRLB) is the listed on-demand manufacturing comparison. Its FY2026 growth guide of 8–10% frames how much of XMTR's 33–34% is share gain versus cycle; a PRLB cut would read across.
• ISM Manufacturing and the industrial capex cycle drive the marketplace order book directly; the 2026-08-03 release at 55.6% and the 2026-09-01 print are the two clean observations either side of this note.
• Siemens became an equity holder via the roughly $50M investment disclosed 2026-05-06, tying part of the equity story to the industrial-software complex rather than to pure marketplace metrics.
• Unprofitable small-cap growth factor: with trailing-twelve-month net income of -$30.81M as of 2026-08-07, the multiple is rate- and risk-appetite-sensitive and tends to move with Russell 2000 breadth rather than with industrial cash-flow compounders.
• Physical-AI and robotics baskets carry XMTR as a supply-chain adjacency; flows into that theme have historically arrived without company news, which cuts both ways during the ten-week disclosure gap.