ALMS · Alumis Inc.

The thesis

Alumis is a one-drug psoriasis company, and the filing of that drug's New Drug Application (NDA) with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) settles the read. The company guides to an envudeucitinib submission in the fourth quarter of 2026, so the test ends on 31 December 2026. The shares closed at $6.64 on 27 October 2026, 78.1% below the 52-week high of $30.30.

The narrative is maturing on psoriasis and dead on lupus. The 408-patient LUMUS Phase 2b lupus trial missed its primary and secondary endpoints in the overall population, per the company's 1 September 2026 release. The psoriasis data are well known, and the shares are down 77.1% over three months.

Since the previous note, the shares closed at $6.06 on 14 October 2026 and at $6.64 on 27 October 2026, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) rose to 47.9 from 27.8. Searches of company releases and SEC filings found no NDA submission announcement, financing or new trial data after the 9 October 2026 release of Phase 3 ONWARD data on scalp disease, itch and quality of life. The rebound has come without company news, so it leaves the filing as the open question.

Bullish and bearish views on Alumis Inc.

The bull case on Alumis Inc. (ALMS), in brief: Psoriasis data lead the oral class. The bear case: The lupus program has no funded path.

Bull case

• Psoriasis data lead the oral class. The 13 August 2026 results release reported 54% complete skin clearance (PASI 100) at Week 48 in ONWARD3. Alumis calls this the highest publicly reported rate among oral psoriasis therapies.
• New data broaden the filing package. The 9 October 2026 release reported scalp, itch and quality-of-life results from Phase 3 ONWARD, and the company repeated that the NDA is on track for 4Q 2026.
• The filing date has held through the lupus failure. The 1 September 2026 release kept the 4Q 2026 NDA guidance. A submission announcement would be the first regulatory step for the drug.
• Cash covers the filing. Alumis reported $502.3 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at 30 June 2026, with runway guided into the fourth quarter of 2027 on 13 August 2026.
• Targets sit far above the price. Morgan Stanley's target is $29 (cut from $39) and Wells Fargo's is $25 (cut from $51), both set in early September 2026.
• An affiliated insider fund bought after the drop. A Form 4 filed 9 September 2026 shows purchases on 4 September 2026 by funds affiliated with director Srinivas Akkaraju, plus purchases and sales on 8 September 2026.

Bear case

• The lupus program has no funded path. The End-of-Phase-2 meetings with FDA and the European Medicines Agency were announced on 1 September 2026 without a date. No Phase 3 design exists for the interferon-gene-signature-high subgroup.
• A direct competitor is ahead on the calendar. The FDA accepted Takeda's zasocitinib NDA under priority review, with a first-quarter 2027 target action date, per Takeda on 14 September 2026.
• Analysts have stepped back. Guggenheim downgraded to Neutral from Buy on 3 September 2026, and Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo cut targets in early September.
• The company still loses heavily. The Q2 2026 net loss was $142.2 million, including a $41.8 million impairment tied to lonigutamab, per the 13 August 2026 results release. MarketBeat reported Q2 revenue of $1.66 million against an estimate of $3.65 million.
• Dilution history is on the record. Alumis closed a $17.00 follow-on of 20.3M shares on 9 January 2026. Funding a lupus Phase 3 or a launch could mean another share sale at a far lower price.

Price setup

Adjusted daily closes put the shares at $6.64 on 27 October 2026, against $6.06 on 14 October 2026 and a 52-week high of $30.30. The 1 September 2026 lupus failure produced a one-day gap of roughly 56%, and the shares have not recovered any meaningful part of it. The RSI of 47.9 is neutral after the reading of 27.8 two weeks earlier.

Crowding evidence is thin on the buying side. There is no wide gap above a rising moving average, and no heavy retail attention is visible in company news. The Q3 report, estimated for about 12 November 2026, is the nearest scheduled event. Past issuance into strength, the January 2026 follow-on at $17.00, is the main financing precedent.

A daily close below $5.00 would put the shares well under the $6.06 close of 14 October 2026 and extend the decline that began on 1 September 2026.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~12 November 2026, est.: Q3 2026 results. Alumis has not announced a date; the estimate follows the 13 August 2026 and 14 May 2026 report dates. The release updates cash against $502.3 million at 30 June 2026, the runway wording and the NDA timing.
• Any date to 31 December 2026: envudeucitinib NDA submission. A company announcement would confirm the guidance first made on 1 September 2026.
• ~Q4 2026, est.: lupus End-of-Phase-2 meetings. Outcomes show whether a biomarker-selected Phase 3 is acceptable to regulators.
• ~Q1 2027, est.: FDA action on Takeda's zasocitinib. Outside the 30-day window, it matters because it sets the competitive timeline.

What would change the view

The case breaks if the psoriasis NDA is not submitted by 31 December 2026, or if the Q3 release moves the timing to 2027. It also breaks if the Q3 report shortens the cash runway or if Alumis announces a share sale to fund lupus work. A daily close below $5.00 would confirm the market is pricing further losses.

A submission announcement, with the runway intact, would improve the evidence. Reaching the rating line would still need a lupus path that regulators accept, or evidence that envudeucitinib's data hold up against Takeda's zasocitinib.

What it trades with

Alumis trades on its own news and on competitor datasets. Takeda's zasocitinib and Bristol Myers Squibb's Sotyktu are the direct comparators in TYK2 psoriasis. Two gaps in eight months, +95.31% on 6 January 2026 and roughly -56% on 1 September 2026, dominate any measured link to the S&P 500, so beta is not a useful guide. Small-cap biotech funds and year-end tax-loss selling are the other forces on the shares.