Watching
AMPL · Amplitude, Inc.
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 9 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A weekly close below $12.60, inside the $12.30–$12.99 price range of the September insider sales. Third-quarter revenue below the $105.6 million guidance floor, or dollar-based net retention at or below 103%, would separately break the business case.
Open pick Medium conviction, opened at $14.88. Since then +5.3% against the S&P 500's +0.5% (+4.8 pp). Kill line at open: $12.60 (weekly close); graded by at the latest.
Catalyst (in 23 days)
How picks are graded →The thesis
Amplitude's product-analytics shares closed at a new 52-week high of $15.29 on 8 October 2026, carried by a raised outlook and an AI-driven growth story. The open question is still whether customer retention improves. The third-quarter report, expected around 4 November 2026 (an Earnings Whispers and MarketBeat estimate the company has not confirmed), settles it. That report tests revenue against the company's $105.6–108.0 million guidance and dollar-based net retention against the 103% reported on 5 August 2026.
The narrative is maturing: the shares rose 63.4% over three months to 8 October 2026 in adjusted daily closes, but the last fresh company-specific news is Piper Sandler's 30 September 2026 target raise to $18. The business figures have not changed since the August report. The price has moved further ahead of the evidence since 6 October 2026, when it closed at $14.79, which puts more weight on the November report.
Bullish and bearish views on Amplitude, Inc.
The bull case on Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL), in brief: Growth beat expectations last quarter. The bear case: Retention has not improved yet.
Bull case
- Growth beat expectations last quarter. Amplitude's 5 August 2026 release showed second-quarter revenue of $100.9 million, up 21% year over year, against a $98.165 million consensus.
- Larger customers are growing faster. The same release counted 824 customers paying $100,000 or more in ARR, up 30% year over year.
- Raised guidance sets a clear hurdle. On 5 August 2026 management lifted full-year revenue guidance to $407.2–411.2 million from $397–403 million. It guided third-quarter revenue to $105.6–108.0 million against a $102.581 million consensus.
- The most bullish targets moved higher. Piper Sandler raised its target to $18 from $13 and kept Overweight on 30 September 2026, according to Benzinga and MarketBeat. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $16 on 13 August 2026, per Benzinga.
- The business generates cash. Second-quarter operating cash flow was $25.6 million and free cash flow $23.7 million, a 24% margin, with cash and marketable securities of $161.4 million (Q2 2026 release, 5 August 2026).
Bear case
- Retention has not improved yet. Dollar-based net retention was 103%, and pro forma retention 105%, in the 5 August 2026 report. The company has published no newer retention figure.
- Price sits above the consensus target. MarketBeat's consensus target of $13.05 across 11 analysts, as of 9 October 2026, is 14.65% below the 8 October 2026 close of $15.29. Only Piper Sandler's $18 and Morgan Stanley's $16 sit above that close. Citi's Neutral target was $11 as of 7 August 2026.
- Insiders keep selling into strength. SEC Form 4 filings show the CEO's spouse converted and sold Class A shares on 30 September 2026 and 1 October 2026 near $14.45, and a further 70,087 shares on 2 October 2026 at a weighted average $14.5203, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 11 June 2026.
- GAAP losses remain large. The Q2 2026 net loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $34.62 million, or $(0.27) per share, against non-GAAP earnings per share of $(0.01). Stock-based compensation accounts for most of the gap.
Price setup
The shares closed at $15.29 on 8 October 2026, which is also the 52-week closing high. That close is 3.4% above the $14.79 close of 6 October 2026 and 63.4% above the level of three months earlier. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge where readings above 70 are conventionally read as overbought, stood at 77.4 on 8 October 2026.
The crowding evidence is observable. The price is above the consensus target, momentum is stretched, insiders have sold on every run toward $14.50 since late September, and the deciding report sits about four weeks out. The $12.30–$12.99 range where the September insider sales cleared is the nearest reference zone below the market. A weekly close below $12.60 would put the shares back inside it and erase most of the run since early September.
Catalysts, next 30 days
- ~15 October 2026, est. Announcement of the third-quarter earnings date. The second-quarter date was announced on 15 July 2026. A date later than early November would extend the period in which the price runs without new business figures.
- ~4 November 2026, est. Third-quarter 2026 results, per Earnings Whispers and MarketBeat estimates; Amplitude has not confirmed the date. The report grades revenue against the $105.6–108.0 million guidance and dollar-based net retention against 103%.
What would change the view
The business case breaks if third-quarter revenue lands below the $105.6 million guidance floor, if the $407.2–411.2 million full-year range is cut, or if dollar-based net retention prints at or below 103% on the same series reported on 5 August 2026. Any of those would show the AI analytics story is not yet lifting spending by existing customers.
On price, a weekly close below $12.60, inside the $12.30–$12.99 range of the September insider sales, would end the thesis. Discretionary insider sales outside Rule 10b5-1 plans near current prices would also weaken the case.
What it trades with
Amplitude trades with mid-cap application software and the group of companies selling AI features into existing enterprise customers. Its results move with the same seat-count and usage-budget decisions that drive other product-analytics and digital-experience vendors. The 63.4% three-month gain to 8 October 2026 is far larger than any move in the business figures over that period. That makes the shares sensitive to a sector-wide pullback in software valuations even before the company reports.
Notes
- Dual-class structure: founders hold Class B shares that concentrate voting power away from holders of the publicly traded Class A shares.
- Two retention series are reported, dollar-based net retention (103%) and pro forma (105%) in Q2 2026. Compare the same series quarter to quarter.
- GAAP and non-GAAP results diverge widely: Q2 2026 GAAP operating loss was $(35.2) million versus non-GAAP $(1.5) million, with stock-based compensation as the bridge.
- Many insider Form 4 sales are made under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans or for RSU tax withholding rather than at the insider's discretion.
- The Statsig acquisition added $17 million of ARR in Q2 2026, so ARR and retention comparisons across that quarter are not like-for-like.
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