AXP · American Express

The thesis

American Express shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third quarter beat on adjusted earnings, but card spending growth slowed, most of the guidance raise came from a one-time gain, and senior executives sold stock in early November. The fourth-quarter report and the 2027 outlook, expected in late January 2027, settle the call.

The company's 23 October 2026 results release showed revenue net of interest expense of $20.06 billion, up 9% from a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $4.68, up 13%. Newsquawk put the consensus at $4.50 and revenue at $20.1 billion, so profit beat while revenue came in roughly level with estimates. Billed business, the dollar value of spending on Amex cards, grew 8% to $454.0 billion. That is below the 9% pace for the first nine months of 2026.

The company raised full-year 2026 diluted EPS guidance to $18.30–$18.60. RTTNews reported the prior range as $17.30–$17.90. The adjusted range, which strips out a $982 million pretax gain from selling the Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) stake and a $336 million restructuring charge, is $17.60–$17.90. Underlying earnings power moved far less than the headline figure.

At $318.06 on 12 November 2026, the shares closed 17.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $387.49 set on 12 December 2025. That gap persists after a quarter of double-digit adjusted EPS growth. The market is pricing slower spending growth and political pressure on card economics more than the reported earnings.

Bullish and bearish views on American Express Company

The bull case on American Express Company (AXP), in brief: credit quality is improving. The bear case: spending growth is slowing.

Bull case

• Credit quality is improving. The net write-off rate fell to 1.8% in the third quarter of 2026 from 1.9% a year earlier, and provisions for credit losses dropped to $1.0 billion from $1.3 billion as the company released reserves (23 October 2026 results release).
• Double-digit revenue growth is holding. Revenue rose 10% over the first nine months of 2026 to $58.61 billion, and Chief Executive Stephen Squeri said the company is on track for another year of 10% revenue growth (23 October 2026 results release).
• Analyst targets sit above the price. Tickeron's 8 November 2026 tally of 17 targets averaged $370, ranging from BTIG's $315 to Deutsche Bank's $450. UBS raised its target to $346 on 2 November 2026 and kept a Neutral rating.
• The dining and lifestyle push keeps expanding. The company completed its purchase of European restaurant booking platform TheFork on 6 November 2026, adding to its Resy dining business (company news).

Bear case

• Spending growth is slowing. Billed business grew 8% in the third quarter of 2026, below the 9% nine-month pace (23 October 2026 results release). Spending volume drives discount revenue, the company's largest line.
• Guidance raise rests on a one-time gain. The $982 million pretax GBTG gain added $1.11 per share after tax in the third quarter. The adjusted 2026 range of $17.60–$17.90 is far narrower than the jump in reported guidance suggests (23 October 2026 results release).
• Executives sold in early November. SEC Form 4 filings show Squeri exercised options on 299,401 shares at $148.45 and sold them at an average $332.16 on 4 November 2026. Chief Legal Officer Laureen Seeger sold 69,860 shares at $328.17, and Group President Anna Marrs sold 44,910 shares at an average $327.20, both on 2 November 2026.
• Targets are being cut. Daiwa Securities lowered its target to $362 from $386 on 5 November 2026 (company news).
• Political risk to card economics remains. On 13 January 2026 the shares fell 4.3% to $359 after President Trump called for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates (IANS). A congressional report on 10 November 2026 criticised several financial institutions, American Express among them, over suspicious-transaction reporting in the Epstein case (company news).

Price setup

The shares closed at $318.06 on 12 November 2026, down from $323.11 on 11 November 2026. As of that close the 50-day moving average was $315.19 and the 200-day moving average was $322.90. The price sits between the two, below the longer trend line. The three-month price change is −6.8%.

Early-November trading ran higher. The insider sales on 2 November 2026 and 4 November 2026 were filled between $326.63 and $332.98 (SEC Form 4 filings), and the shares closed at $324.97 on 5 November 2026. Since then each close has stayed below $325.

The 52-week intraday high is $387.49, set on 12 December 2025. The 52-week closing low is $292.27, set on 27 March 2026. A move back above the 200-day average and the early-November range would show buyers absorbing the insider supply. A close under the 50-day average would extend the three-month decline.

Catalysts ahead

• ~29 January 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results and full-year 2027 guidance. Shows whether billed business growth recovers from 8% and whether the 2027 revenue and EPS outlook gives the shares a reason to lead; a 2027 outlook above 10% revenue growth would undercut the lag call.

What would change the view

A weekly close above $342, which would recover the mid-August 2026 price and erase the three-month decline, showing the shares leading; or a 2027 outlook at the fourth-quarter report calling for revenue growth above 10%.

What it trades with

American Express trades as the large-cap bellwether for premium consumer and small-business card spending. It moves with card networks and card-lending banks such as Visa, Mastercard and Capital One on spending data and credit trends. Political events hit the whole group together. On 13 January 2026, after the 10% rate-cap proposal, American Express fell 4.3% and Capital One fell 6.4% (IANS). Because spending skews toward affluent card members and travel, the shares also respond to travel and luxury demand readings.