BA · The Boeing Company

The thesis

Boeing's case now rests on its commercial losses more than on the regulator. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) found on 2 October 2026 that the 737 MAX 10 software glitch poses no safety issue, which removes the open-ended delay behind the 28 September 2026 sell-off. The 27 October 2026 third-quarter report decides whether Commercial Airplanes margins and free cash flow improve enough to lift the shares.

Good news has piled up since the last note, but the price has hardly moved. In eight days Boeing won the FAA finding, a $14.7 billion PAC-3 seeker contract from Lockheed Martin (5 October 2026), a ratified engineers' contract (1 October 2026) and the first full-rate Grey Wolf helicopter order (1 October 2026, per DefenseNews). The shares closed at $187.75 on 8 October 2026, against $186.05 on 30 September 2026. They sit 25.5% below their 52-week high of $252.15, are down 12.9% over three months and carry a 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 38.4.

The narrative is maturing: the factory recovery under Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg is well known, and the fresh contract and regulatory news since 1 October 2026 has not brought in new buying. The odds that the shares beat the S&P 500 over the next three months look slightly worse than even. The quarterly report lands inside that window, and Boeing's second-quarter figures still showed losses in both main segments.

Bullish and bearish views on The Boeing Company

The bull case on The Boeing Company (BA), in brief: The MAX 10 overhang has shrunk. The bear case: Commercial Airplanes still loses money.

Bull case

• The MAX 10 overhang has shrunk. An FAA expert panel ruled on 2 October 2026 that the flight-guidance glitch is not a safety concern, per the Wall Street Journal. Boeing will send airlines a bulletin while it writes a permanent fix, and the company said the finding could help the MAX 10 reach certification before the end of 2026.
• Defense awards are stacking up. The Navy picked Boeing for the F/A-XX fighter on 29 September 2026, a development contract worth more than $20 billion. Lockheed Martin then awarded Boeing a seven-year, roughly $14.7 billion contract on 5 October 2026 to triple PAC-3 MSE missile-seeker production.
• Strike risk is gone for four years. The SPEEA engineers' union ratified a four-year contract on 1 October 2026. A strike could have disrupted MAX 10 and 777X certification work.
• Backlog is at a record. Boeing reported a $715 billion total backlog on 30 June 2026, including more than 6,200 commercial airplanes valued at $597 billion.
• New widebody demand is appearing. Reuters reported on 8 October 2026 that Southwest Airlines is weighing the 787 for a long-haul international push. Ethiopian Airlines ordered ten 777 freighters on 30 September 2026.

Bear case

• Commercial Airplanes still loses money. The segment's operating margin was (2.7)% in the second quarter of 2026, and Defense, Space & Security was at (0.2)%. Boeing posted a core loss of $0.76 per share for the quarter.
• Debt is heavy as yields climb. Boeing carried $45.9 billion of consolidated debt against $20.0 billion of cash and investments on 30 June 2026. Benzinga reported on 6 October 2026 that Boeing has billions of dollars of debt coming due as the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.3%.
• The MAX 10 still lacks a certificate. The FAA finding clears a safety question, but no certification date has been set. Jefferies, which kept a Buy rating and a $265 target after cutting it from $295 on 22 September 2026, expects certification by year-end and deliveries in 2027.
• China trade friction targets aviation. Benzinga reported on 2 October 2026 that the US is slowing aircraft-part export licenses to China as leverage in trade talks. That raises the risk of Chinese retaliation against Boeing orders or deliveries.
• Fixed-price defense work has cost Boeing before. F/A-XX is a development program with deliveries targeted for the 2030s. The defense unit's (0.2)% margin in the second quarter of 2026 shows how thin its fixed-price returns have been.

Price setup

The shares closed at $187.75 on 8 October 2026, 25.5% below the 52-week high of $252.15. They are down 12.9% over three months, and the 14-day RSI of 38.4 is closer to oversold than overbought. On 28 September 2026 the shares fell 6.9% on the MAX 10 delay, per CP24, and the later news has not won back that drop.

There is little sign of crowding. The stock is well below its high, and momentum readings are soft. Benzinga's options scanner listed Boeing among industrial names with large options trades on 1 October 2026 and 2 October 2026. The main crowding factor is the calendar: the 27 October 2026 report falls inside any three-month window measured from now.

$170 is the level that matters on the downside. A close below it would mean the slide had continued even after the FAA finding and two large defense awards.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~13 October 2026 (est.): Third-quarter commercial deliveries and orders. These show whether the move to 47 737s a month is turning into completed deliveries.
• 27 October 2026: Third-quarter 2026 results and conference call with Kelly Ortberg and Chief Financial Officer Jay Malave at 10:30 a.m. ET, per Boeing's 30 September 2026 release. The call tests Commercial Airplanes margins against (2.7)%, whether free cash flow stays positive after $0.6 billion in the second quarter, and whether any program charges appear.
• By 31 December 2026 (est.): 737 MAX 10 certification. Both Boeing and Jefferies point to year-end. Any delay past that date would revive the September overhang.

What would change the view

Program charges would break the case. That means a reach-forward loss on the 777X or a fixed-price defense program at the 27 October 2026 report, or negative third-quarter free cash flow. A new MAX 10 problem that pushes certification past year-end, or Chinese retaliation that halts Boeing deliveries to Chinese carriers, would do the same.

The read would improve if the third quarter shows Commercial Airplanes margins clearly better than (2.7)% and free cash flow above the second quarter's $0.6 billion. An FAA certification date for the MAX 10 would also help, and so would shares that start responding to news like the 2 October 2026 FAA finding.

On price, a daily close below $170 would show the market treating the recent good news as already priced in.

What it trades with

Boeing now trades on two drivers. Commercial news (FAA rulings, delivery counts, airline orders) moves it alongside Airbus and the aerospace supply chain. Defense awards link it to Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, the losing F/A-XX bidder. With $45.9 billion of debt on 30 June 2026, the shares are also exposed to the 10-year Treasury yield, which rose above 5.3% in early October per Benzinga. US–China trade talks are a separate, two-way risk, because the aircraft-parts licenses under review also feed China's COMAC jet program, a Boeing competitor.