CACI · CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA · Stock research

m# CACI — CACI International Inc

Current Thesis

The leg being bought remains the re-rate of a federal IT services contractor into a defense-technology supplier, priced off the 2026-08-05 FY2026 Q4 print (adjusted EPS $8.91 vs $7.21 consensus; revenue $2.709B vs $2.693B, +17.6% YoY with 11.6% organic) and the FY2027 guide that moved forward numbers rather than just the multiple: revenue $10.65–10.85B, adjusted EPS $32.96–33.86 against $30.78 consensus, GAAP EPS $25.74–26.64 against $22.19, free cash flow of at least $900M. What has changed since mid-August is the market's response function. The 2026-08-17 selection onto the US Space Force NITE-STAR IDIQ (valued up to $981M across two five-year periods) did not produce a new high; the 52-week high of $680.08 was set around 2026-08-13, and the last completed daily close on 2026-08-21 was $647.39. Fresh awards are landing and the price is no longer extending on them. The load-bearing assumption is unchanged: a roughly 12.4% midpoint revenue guide off a total backlog that grew 2% YoY.

Bullish and bearish views on CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA

The model's bull view on CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA (CACI), in brief: FY2026 free cash flow of $735.4M, up 66.2% YoY, with FY2027 guided to at least $900M (FY2026 results, 2026-08-05). The bear view: Total backlog grew 2% YoY to $32.0B while FY2027 revenue is guided to roughly 12.4% growth at the midpoint. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• FY2026 free cash flow of $735.4M, up 66.2% YoY, with FY2027 guided to at least $900M (FY2026 results, 2026-08-05). Cash conversion is what funds the path from 3.7x pro-forma leverage at FY2026 year-end toward the low-3x range management targeted by June 2027 on the 2026-08-05 call.
• FY2026 revenue $9.57B, +10.9% YoY (7.2% organic), EBITDA margin 12.3% (+110bps), Q4 EBITDA margin 13.0% (+150bps) — margin expansion weighted to the back of the year.
• Funded backlog up 29% YoY with total backlog at $32.0B and FY2026 awards above $10B at 1.1x book-to-bill, roughly six-year weighted average duration (2026-08-05 call). Funded is the near-term-convertible slice supporting the first half of the FY2027 guide.
• Product content keeps getting named contract vehicles: SkyValor counter-drone at full-rate production under a three-year $500M IDIQ with JIATF-401 (2026-07-31), then the NITE-STAR space test-infrastructure IDIQ on 2026-08-17.
• Target revisions in the week after the print: UBS to $804 from $598 and JP Morgan Overweight $715 (both 2026-08-07), Jefferies to $700 from $510, Stifel to $892 from $765, Wells Fargo to $715 from $580. Consensus stood at $717.43 across 17 analysts (13 Buy / 4 Hold / 0 Sell), range $550–$892, as of 2026-08-11.

Bear Case

• Total backlog grew 2% YoY to $32.0B while FY2027 revenue is guided to roughly 12.4% growth at the midpoint. A 1.1x book-to-bill is barely above replacement for that gap.
• NITE-STAR is a multiple-award ceiling shared across the awardee pool — Rocket Lab, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman were named among the participants on 2026-08-18, and the 2026-07-31 Space Force announcement of the program covered 15 firms. The $981M figure is a program ceiling over ten years, not booked CACI orders; task-order competition still has to happen.
• The adjusted-to-GAAP gap is wide and structural. FY2026 GAAP diluted EPS was $24.16 (+8.2%) against adjusted $29.83 (+12.7%), net income $535.8M; FY2027 is guided at GAAP $25.74–26.64 versus adjusted $32.96–33.86, with acquisition intangible amortization inside the difference.
• Citigroup maintained Neutral on 2026-08-11 with a target of $648, level with the 2026-08-21 close of $647.39. The consensus $717.43 was set almost entirely in the 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-11 window; no target revision has been reported since.
• Revenue concentration in US federal contracts makes 2026-09-30 the gating date for new starts. A full-year continuing resolution with new-start restrictions slows award flow regardless of pipeline quality.

Setup & Price Structure

The 2026-08-21 close of $647.39 sits 4.8% below the 52-week high of $680.08, with the shares up 29.1% over three months. RSI(14) was 77.8 at that close, down from the 82.3 Benzinga cited on 2026-08-13 when it screened CACI in a piece headlined around overbought industrials at $680.08. An RSI that stays near 78 after a 4.8% pullback is an inference about slope: the multi-week advance was steep enough that a week of chop has not reset the oscillator.

The structure to watch is the post-guide gap shelf. The lowest identifiable close since the 2026-08-05 guide was around $646 on 2026-08-07; the 2026-08-21 close is on that level rather than above it. The measured facts are that a fresh $981M-ceiling award on 2026-08-17 produced no new high, and price has round-tripped most of the post-print extension while the fundamental numbers have not changed. That combination places the narrative in maturing rather than accelerating: well known since 2026-08-05, still working on the numbers, with moderating flow and thinner incremental bid.

Crowding observables, stated as observables: retail-facing overbought coverage clustered on 2026-08-13; whale-alert options coverage on 2026-08-06; and a two-month gap to the next scheduled company event, so there is no imminent print to force resolution either way.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• No confirmed company-scheduled event between 2026-08-23 and 2026-09-22. The FY2026 Form 10-K was filed 2026-08-06, which resolves the estimated filing date carried in earlier coverage; contract-mix, ARKA purchase accounting and the debt schedule behind the 3.7x pro-forma leverage are now on file.
• Rolling through September: federal fiscal year-end obligation cluster — agency award announcements are the observable, including any task orders under the JIATF-401 SkyValor IDIQ and NITE-STAR.
• 2026-09-30: US federal fiscal year-end and the FY2027 appropriations deadline (38 days from 2026-08-23, just outside the 30-day window).
• ~2026-10-21 (est.): Q1 FY2027 results; the prior-year Q1 print landed 2025-10-22.

What Would Change Our Mind

The structure at risk is the post-2026-08-05 gap shelf, and it is being tested now rather than in the abstract — the 2026-08-21 close of $647.39 sits on the ~$646 area that marked the lowest close since the FY2027 guide. A daily close below $640 forfeits that shelf and puts the whole August re-rate move back in play, with the pre-print range as the next reference.

On fundamentals, the specific numbers that would break the frame: Q1 FY2027 book-to-bill under 1.0x or total backlog reported down sequentially at the late-October print; Q1 free cash flow tracking materially below the pace required for the at-least-$900M FY2027 guide; leverage flat or higher versus 3.7x. On policy, a full-year continuing resolution enacted at or after 2026-09-30 carrying new-start restrictions.

The reverse case also has a marker. If price reclaims and closes above the $680.08 area on continued award flow while targets hold at $717.43, the moderating-flow read is wrong and participation is expanding rather than thinning.

Correlation Notes

• Moves with the government-services complex (Leidos, SAIC, Booz Allen, Parsons) on appropriations and budget headlines more than with broad industrials; the 2026-09-30 deadline is a shared factor across the group.
• Partial overlap with the space and counter-UAS complexes through NITE-STAR co-awardees named 2026-08-18 (Rocket Lab, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman) and through SkyValor. Drone-defense headlines can move the name independently of federal IT budget news.
• Idiosyncratic driver is leverage: at 3.7x pro-forma post-ARKA, the name carries more rate and credit sensitivity than debt-light services peers, so the deleveraging trajectory is a separate axis from the award cycle.