TTMI · TTM Technologies, Inc. · Stock research

Current Thesis

The binary this name was walking into has resolved, and it resolved on the bull side. Q2 2026 (reported 2026-08-05, after close) put revenue at $1.004B against $962.04M consensus and above the company's own $930–970M guide, with adjusted EPS $0.99 vs $0.90 expected. The Q3 guide — $1.100–1.140B revenue and $1.21–1.27 adjusted EPS against $1.073B/$1.09 consensus — was a raise. Book-to-bill went the right way, 1.41 in Q1 to 1.49 in Q2. What has not happened is a price re-rating: the last completed daily close was $140.0 on 2026-08-14, still 36.8% below the $221.47 52-week high, still under the 2026-07-02 breakdown close of $155.98, and 3-month return sits at -16.3%. The leg on offer is no longer "will the orders hold" — the order book answered that — it is whether an owner base that de-grossed in June and July comes back for a business compounding at these rates.

Bullish and bearish views on TTM Technologies, Inc.

The model's bull view on TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI), in brief: Q2 beat both consensus and the company's own guide: revenue $1.004B vs $962.04M consensus and a $930–970M guide range; adjusted EPS $0.99 vs $0.90 (2026-08-05 release). The bear view: The print did not buy a reclaim: a beat-and-raise of this size left the 2026-08-14 close at $140.0, below the 2026-07-14 close of $141.97 and well below the 2026-07-02 breakdown close of $155.98. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Q2 beat both consensus and the company's own guide: revenue $1.004B vs $962.04M consensus and a $930–970M guide range; adjusted EPS $0.99 vs $0.90 (2026-08-05 release). Prior-year Q2 net sales were $730.6M.
• Orders still lead shipments and accelerated: total book-to-bill 1.49 in Q2 versus 1.41 at the Q1 call, with the commercial segment at 1.63 and aerospace & defense at 1.30 (2026-08-05 call).
• The cancellable near-term book grew fastest: 90-day backlog $901M versus $497M a year earlier, +81% YoY (2026-08-05 call).
• The AI leg is now the biggest leg: Data Center & Networking was 40% of Q2 net sales with revenue +91% YoY, and management guided that end market to roughly 49% of Q3 sales.
• A named, dollar-quantified product ramp: approximately $600M of N+M asymmetric PCB production planned across 2H26 (2026-08-05 call) — a specific line item rather than a TAM slide.
• Defense backlog grew alongside it: A&D program backlog over $1.7B at the Q2 call, up from the $1.6B cited on 2026-04-29.
• Sell-side moved up, not down, after the print: Truist Securities maintained Buy and raised its target to $224 from $215 on 2026-08-06; the trailing six-month median of four published targets stood at $211.50 (Benzinga ratings page).

Bear Case

• The print did not buy a reclaim: a beat-and-raise of this size left the 2026-08-14 close at $140.0, below the 2026-07-14 close of $141.97 and well below the 2026-07-02 breakdown close of $155.98. INFERRED, not measured: the June–July drawdown was a multiple and ownership event rather than an estimate event, and the estimate confirmation has not reversed it.
• Insider distribution continued straight through the print: SVP of Information Technology Dale Martin Knecht sold 26,198 shares at $142.00 on 2026-08-10 for $3,720,116, leaving 40,138 shares held. That follows sales by Knecht, Robert P. Farrell and Tom Clapprood in the 2026-06-23 to 2026-06-25 window, into the June top, with no offsetting open-market buys disclosed.
• Concentration is rising by design: guiding Data Center & Networking to ~49% of Q3 sales means roughly half of revenue keys off one capex cycle whose timing TTM does not control.
• The fastest-growing backlog measure is the cancellable one: the $901M 90-day figure is explicitly subject to cancellation, so an order-rate air pocket shows up there first.
• Target-to-price gap is wide: a $211.50 median target against a $140.0 close is roughly a 50% spread, and published targets adjust after price, not before it.
• Ownership was broadest at the high: Russell 1000 inclusion took effect 2026-06-26, eleven days after the $206.66 closing high of 2026-06-15 — the passive bid arrived at the top of the move.

Setup & Price Structure

• Reference levels: last completed daily close $140.0 (2026-08-14); 52-week high $221.47; distance from that high -36.8%; RSI(14) 60.5, which is mid-range and shows no extension either way.
• The July descent, close by close: $206.66 (2026-06-15) → $155.98 (2026-07-02, a -13.2% session) → $141.97 (2026-07-14) → $133.17 (2026-07-20) → $131.61 (2026-07-24). Each step printed a lower shelf on no company-specific news.
• What the print changed: the sequence of lower shelves stopped after 2026-08-05, and price has held above the $130–132 area that combines the June gap fill with the July closing low. That is a base attempt, not a completed base — $140.0 still sits inside the July breakdown range.
• Overhead structure: $155.98 is the first real resistance (the breakdown session close); above it the June air pocket runs largely unfilled toward $206.66.
• The narrative is maturing. The story is well known and still working on the numbers — Russell 1000 inclusion 2026-06-26 marked mainstream ownership, four sell-side targets cluster near $211.50, and the 2026-08-05 beat-and-raise was fresh, favourable news. Accelerating business, moderating flow.
• Crowding observables, stated plainly: continued insider sales post-print (2026-08-10, 26,198 sh at $142.00); zero disclosed insider buys through a 36% drawdown; analyst targets roughly 50% above spot; no company catalyst on the calendar to force a repricing; RSI 60.5 with price below the 2026-07-14 close.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• ~2026-08-26 (est.) — Nvidia fiscal Q2 report, date unconfirmed. Theme-level read-through on AI accelerator and backplane build rates that drive the ~$600M of N+M asymmetric PCB production TTM guided for 2H26.
• 2026-09-30 — close of the quarter guided to $1.100–1.140B revenue and $1.21–1.27 adjusted EPS. Nothing is disclosed on that date; it is the period the next print grades.
• ~2026-11-04 (est.) — Q3 2026 print, outside the 30-day window. Not yet announced as of 2026-08-16.

Elapsed catalysts

• No confirmed company event. TTM's IR calendar, checked 2026-08-16, listed no scheduled events after the 2026-08-05 Q2 conference call. There is no dated company-controlled catalyst inside the next 30 days. (passed 10d ago)

What Would Change Our Mind

Gradeably: a weekly close below $128. On fundamentals, three observables would break the leg independently of price — total book-to-bill printing under 1.0 at the Q3 report, Q3 revenue landing below the $1.100B guide low, or the Data Center & Networking mix guided down from the ~49% of Q3 sales management indicated, which would mean the AI ramp is stalling rather than compounding. On the other side, a weekly close back above $155.98 would reclaim the 2026-07-02 breakdown level and argue the de-grossing is finished; that is the level that would flip the structural read constructive.

Correlation Notes

• Moves with the AI hardware supply chain rather than with broad industrials — the -13.2% session on 2026-07-02 came with no company news, consistent with a basket de-grossing across AI-adjacent hardware suppliers.
• Direct exposure to hyperscaler and custom-silicon build rates through the Data Center & Networking segment (40% of Q2 sales, +91% YoY), so accelerator-vendor guidance is a leading input to the order book.
• The aerospace & defense leg (book-to-bill 1.30, program backlog over $1.7B at the Q2 call) converts on program schedules and is the part of the mix least tied to hyperscaler capex timing.
• Passive flow sensitivity increased with Russell 1000 inclusion effective 2026-06-26, which widens the index-driven component of any future drawdown.