PRM · Perimeter Solutions, Inc.

The thesis

Perimeter Solutions, the maker of PHOS-CHEK wildfire retardant, is a debate over third-quarter earnings, and the company now says it will report on 5 November 2026, a week later than the earlier estimate. The result settles whether the roughly 10% earnings miss that UBS says the shares already price in is right.

The shares closed at $28.75 on 27 October 2026, 23.9% below the adjusted 52-week high of $37.78 and down 22.8% over three months (adjusted daily closes). The narrative is maturing and has turned skeptical: the record fire season was widely covered through the summer, and J.P. Morgan cut its target to $40 on 13 October 2026, after UBS cut to $38 on 29 September 2026, with both keeping positive ratings.

The second-quarter report on 31 July 2026 framed the debate. Net sales were $213.8M, up 31% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $105.6M, up 16%. Fire Safety, the retardant segment, grew sales 7% to $129.1M but adjusted EBITDA only 1% to $78.8M.

Bullish and bearish views on Perimeter Solutions, Inc.

The bull case on Perimeter Solutions, Inc. (PRM), in brief: Analysts keep positive ratings after cuts. The bear case: Acreage is no longer accelerating.

Bull case

• Analysts keep positive ratings after cuts. J.P. Morgan stayed at Overweight on 13 October 2026 with a $40 target. UBS kept Buy on 29 September 2026 and said the shares may be pricing in about a 10% miss, or ignoring the roughly 15% EBITDA growth it expects next year.
• Specialty Products is growing fast. Second-quarter net sales were $84.7M, up 100%, with segment adjusted EBITDA of $26.8M, up 96% (Q2 2026 release, 31 July 2026).
• Monaco adds earnings. The $120M acquisition closed 30 July 2026. Management expects more than $11M of annualized adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026 call).
• Defense foam deliveries are due to restart. Management said on the 31 July 2026 call that Defense Logistics Agency foam deliveries, near zero in the second quarter during an inventory-system transition, would resume in the third quarter.

Bear case

• Acreage is no longer accelerating. UBS tied its 29 September 2026 cut to slowing acres burned and fears of a third-quarter disappointment. The CEO said on 31 July 2026 that acres burned do not translate directly into volumes.
• Fire Safety profit is not following sales. Second-quarter segment adjusted EBITDA rose 1% against 7% sales growth. Management blamed a 5% year-one price step-down in the federal retardant contract and the foam pause.
• Targets keep falling. J.P. Morgan cut from $50 to $45 on 3 August 2026 and to $40 on 13 October 2026. UBS cut to $38 on 29 September 2026. Morgan Stanley held Buy at $40 on 20 August 2026. Coverage is thin, four analysts per S&P Global as of 5 September 2026.
• Insiders have been sellers. GuruFocus reported on 1 October 2026 that insiders sold $239.6M of stock over the past 12 months with no buying.
• Leverage leaves little room for error. At 30 June 2026 the company held $82.8M of cash and $1.21B of long-term debt, with net debt at 3.1 times LTM adjusted EBITDA (31 July 2026 call).

Price setup

The shares closed at $28.75 on 27 October 2026, up from $27.49 on 14 October 2026 and $27.20 on 1 October 2026. The two-week range of about $27 to $29 has held through the J.P. Morgan cut on 13 October 2026. The adjusted 52-week high is $37.78.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge where readings under 30 are called oversold, was 52.8 on 27 October 2026. It stood at 28.5 on 1 October 2026 and 46.5 on 14 October 2026, so the oversold reading has fully cleared.

Crowding evidence is limited to the earnings date and the insider record. The report falls on 5 November 2026 before the market opens, and GuruFocus counted $239.6M of insider sales over the 12 months to 1 October 2026. The view that the third-quarter report decides the next move is wrong if the shares close below $24.50 before it, since that would mean the market is pricing a larger shortfall than UBS describes.

Catalysts, next 30 days

No upcoming dated catalysts on file — the dated entries below have passed.

Elapsed catalysts

• ~4 November 2026: corporate name change. A company news item dated 16 October 2026 says the name changes effective Nov. 4. The new name is rendered differently across sources, so the NYSE ticker PRM is the stable identifier. (passed 2d ago)
• 5 November 2026: third-quarter results and call. The company announced on 22 October 2026 that it will report before the market opens, with the call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The report tests foam delivery resumption, Monaco's first contribution and Fire Safety margins against the 5% federal price step-down. (passed 1d ago)
• 5 November 2026: guidance on the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is seasonally weak, and the call follows the 30 September 2026 federal funding deadline for the largest customer group. (passed 1d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if third-quarter Fire Safety adjusted EBITDA falls below the third-quarter 2025 level, or if the company discloses minimal foam deliveries or moves the ramp into 2027. Either would confirm the slowdown UBS flagged and show the 5% price step-down outweighing volume.

On price, a daily close below $24.50 would extend the slide well past the late-September closes near $27. A third-quarter report that shows Fire Safety profit growing alongside sales, with foam deliveries resumed, would weaken the bear case and make the roughly 10% miss UBS describes look excessive.

What it trades with

No current theme carries the name. Its sales depend on federal and state wildfire budgets and on fire-season severity, so it trades on its own earnings more than on any sector group. Customers are the U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management and CAL FIRE, so appropriations timing matters more than market direction.