QLYS · Qualys, Inc.

The thesis

Qualys shares closed at $193.86 on 8 October 2026, 3.0% below their 52-week high, after a sector-wide Cybersecurity rally lifted them above the analyst consensus. Momentum and a fresh Buy initiation give the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500 into the third-quarter report, expected around 3 November 2026. That report settles the case: revenue has to clear the $185.5 million floor of the company's 4 August 2026 guidance to justify the price.

The shares set their 52-week high close of $199.93 on 6 October 2026 and gave back part of it over the next two sessions, according to adjusted daily closes. They are up 27.9% over three months. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge where readings above 70 are usually called overbought, stood at 66.9 on 8 October 2026.

The narrative is maturing: Qualys is an established security-software company that the market is re-rating with its sector, yet it has issued no results or guidance news since 4 August 2026. The one new datapoint since the last update is analyst attention. StockAnalysis lists Daniel Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co initiating at Buy with a $230 target on 7 October 2026, the first new Buy-rated target since August. As of 9 October 2026, Qualys had not announced its third-quarter results date.

Bullish and bearish views on Qualys, Inc.

The bull case on Qualys, Inc. (QLYS), in brief: The last quarter beat and raised. The bear case: The price is ahead of the consensus.

Bull case

• The last quarter beat and raised. On 4 August 2026, Qualys reported Q2 revenue of $182.2 million, up 11% year over year, with a 34% operating margin under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). MarketBeat put non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) at $1.98 against a $1.78 consensus.
• Guidance moved up across the board. The same day, management raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $732–738 million from $721–727 million and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $7.74–7.88 from $7.44–7.65. Q3 guidance is revenue of $185.5–187.5 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.91–1.98.
• A new bull target sits above the high. StockAnalysis records Yorkville Ives & Co initiating at Buy with a $230 target on 7 October 2026. That is above Scotiabank's $220 (5 August 2026), previously the top of the range.
• The sector still has buying. CNBC ran "Cybersecurity stocks are back with a bang" on 21 September 2026. On 23 September 2026, 24/7 Wall St. reported 4% gains in CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Okta while large-cap tech fell.
• The trend remains intact. The 8 October 2026 close of $193.86 sits well above the $171.90 50-day and $129.84 200-day moving averages MarketBeat recorded on 30 September 2026.

Bear case

• The price is ahead of the consensus. StockAnalysis showed a Hold consensus from 22 analysts with an average target of $179.36 on 9 October 2026. Morgan Stanley's Underweight target of $130 (5 August 2026) remains the low end.
• Most targets sit below the price. J.P. Morgan holds a Neutral rating with a $173 target (7 August 2026), Wedbush moved to Hold at $175 (10 September 2026) and Canaccord's Buy carries $190 (12 August 2026), per StockAnalysis. All three are below the 8 October 2026 close.
• The gap above the long-term average is wide. The $193.86 close sits far above the $129.84 200-day moving average. A gap that size leaves room for a sharp pullback if sector buying fades before the report.
• Insiders keep selling into the rise. Chief executive Sumedh Thakar sold 3,200 shares at $170.05 on 14 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 27 February 2026, according to his Form 4. MarketBeat counted 9,906 shares of insider sales worth $1,620,158 in the 90 days to 30 September 2026.

Price setup

The shares closed at $193.86 on 8 October 2026, according to adjusted daily closes. Overhead, the 52-week high close of $199.93 (6 October 2026) and the $198.68 close of 5 October 2026 mark the recent top. Below, the late-August close of $187.05 (28 August 2026) is the prior high the September rally cleared, and the first level where a pullback would undo part of that rally.

Further down, the 50-day moving average of $171.90 recorded by MarketBeat on 30 September 2026 is the level that separates a pause from a broken trend. The 200-day moving average of $129.84 sits far below and does not come into play inside the three-month window unless the sector reverses hard. The RSI of 66.9 on 8 October 2026 is elevated but below the 70 line.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~15 October 2026, est.: Qualys announces its Q3 2026 results date. In 2025 the company reported Q3 on 4 November 2025; as of 9 October 2026 no 2026 date had been posted.
• ~3 November 2026, est.: Q3 2026 results and Q4 guidance. The report shows whether revenue clears the $185.5–187.5 million guide, whether 11% growth holds and whether full-year guidance of $732–738 million moves up again.

What would change the view

The case breaks if the business stops supporting a price above the consensus target. Q3 2026 revenue at or below the $185.5 million guidance floor, or Q4 guidance implying growth below the 11% reported for Q2, would remove the reason the shares trade above the $179.36 average target.

On price, a daily close below $172 would put the shares back under the $171.90 50-day moving average MarketBeat recorded on 30 September 2026 and erase the late-September rally. A close back above the $199.93 high of 6 October 2026, alongside more targets raised toward Yorkville's $230, would strengthen the case.

What it trades with

Qualys has traded with large Cybersecurity peers since mid-September. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Okta led the 23 September 2026 sector move reported by 24/7 Wall St., and Qualys reached its high within two weeks of it without company news. Until the Q3 report, sector flows drive the shares more than Qualys-specific events. A sector reversal would likely hit a name trading above its consensus target harder than peers with more analyst support.