Covered
TBLA · Taboola.com Ltd.
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on the last session; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A daily close below $2.95, which would break under the October low area and erase the stabilisation since the $3.23 close of 2 October 2026. Third-quarter ex-TAC gross profit under $184 million or adjusted EBITDA under $51.5 million would also break the case.
Not a pickResearch coverage at low conviction. A medium-or-higher call would open a pick on the scoreboard.
Catalyst (2 days ago)
How picks are graded →The thesis
Taboola's profit is still growing, but the shares closed at $3.48 on 28 October 2026, 37.6% below the 52-week high of $5.58 (adjusted daily closes), so the recovery case is unproven. The third-quarter report on 4 November 2026 settles whether profit guidance holds, starting with the $184 million floor for ex-TAC gross profit. Ex-TAC gross profit is revenue left after paying publishers, which are called traffic acquisition costs (TAC).
The shares have moved sideways since the previous note. The adjusted close was $3.54 on 15 October 2026 and $3.48 on 28 October 2026, and the 14-day relative strength index is 47.7, near the middle of its range. The three-month price change is -30.5%. The close remains below the $3.60 close of 18 September 2026.
The narrative as an AI-led breakout is dead: the 5 August 2026 revenue guidance cut ended the story that lifted the shares to the June high near $5.41. What remains is a profit-delivery case. Q2 ex-TAC gross profit rose 11.8% to $192.4 million, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) rose 22.8% to $55.5 million (Q2 2026 results release, 5 August 2026).
The revenue cut has a specific cause. PPC Land reported on 5 August 2026 that Google's spam policy on back-button hijacking, enforced from 15 June 2026, removed Taboola's Explore More product, which the CFO said was expected to add more than $20 million of ex-TAC gross profit in the second half of 2026.
New since the previous note: Taboola confirmed on 15 October 2026 that it will report third-quarter results on 4 November 2026, with a call at 8:30 a.m. ET (company announcement via Finviz). On 28 October 2026 the company announced a partnership to put its DeeperDive answer engine on select Motorola moto g smartphones "in coming months". No revenue figure accompanied the announcement.
Bullish and bearish views on Taboola.com Ltd.
The bull case on Taboola.com Ltd. (TBLA), in brief: Profit growth held through the reset. The bear case: Revenue came in below the guidance floor.
Bull case
- Profit growth held through the reset. Q2 ex-TAC gross profit grew 11.8% against revenue growth of 2.4%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 22.8% (5 August 2026 release). Q2 net income was $4.3 million against a $4.3 million loss a year earlier, after a $12.2 million one-time publisher prepayment write-off (PPC Land, 5 August 2026).
- Full-year profit guidance moved up. Adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to $228–240 million from $222–240 million, and the full-year ex-TAC range is $772–783 million (5 August 2026 release; PPC Land). The Q3 floors of $184 million ex-TAC gross profit and $51.5 million adjusted EBITDA are a clear test.
- DeeperDive gains a hardware channel. The 28 October 2026 Motorola announcement adds a consumer device route for the answer engine, which previously ran on publisher sites. The company has not disclosed DeeperDive revenue as of the 5 August 2026 release.
- Analysts remain positive but are trimming. StoneX maintained Buy and lowered its target to $5 on 20 October 2026. MarketBeat listed a Moderate Buy consensus with an average target of $5.75 on 8 October 2026. All of these targets sit above the $3.48 close.
Bear case
- Revenue came in below the guidance floor. Q2 revenue of $476.8 million was $15.2 million under the $492 million floor, and full-year revenue guidance fell to $1.930–1.956 billion from $2.006–2.062 billion (5 August 2026 release; PPC Land). Shares closed at $3.84 on 5 August 2026 after a fall of about 27.5%, according to MarketBeat.
- A platform policy removed a profit source. Google's enforcement from 15 June 2026 ended Explore More, worth more than $20 million of second-half ex-TAC gross profit by the CFO's estimate (PPC Land, 5 August 2026). Dependence on search-engine traffic rules remains a feature of the business.
- Price targets are drifting down. StoneX cut its target to $5 on 20 October 2026, and TD Cowen and Benchmark cut theirs to $5 and $5.50 after the August report, according to news summaries. The shares have not recovered the 18 September 2026 close of $3.60.
- Litigation overhangs the shares. A securities class action covers purchasers from 6 May to 4 August 2026, and the lead-plaintiff deadline passed on 20 October 2026. The suit does not change reported results.
Price setup
The shares closed at $3.48 on 28 October 2026. The 52-week high is $5.58 and the close is 37.6% below it. The recent range runs from the $3.23 close of 2 October 2026 to the $3.60 close of 18 September 2026, and the close sits inside it. A move above $3.60 would be the first close above the September level. A close below $2.95 would break under the October low area.
Crowding evidence is thin. The shares sit well below the 52-week high, so there is no gap above a rising moving average. The earnings date is six days away, which is the main event risk.
Catalysts, next 30 days
No upcoming dated catalysts on file — the dated entries below have passed.
Elapsed catalysts
- 4 November 2026: Q3 2026 results, 8:30 a.m. ET call. Tests the $184 million ex-TAC gross profit floor, the $51.5 million adjusted EBITDA floor and the $460–473 million revenue guidance. Also shows whether management raises, holds or lowers the full-year $772–783 million ex-TAC range and whether DeeperDive gets a disclosed revenue figure. (passed 2d ago)
- Coming months, no date: Motorola moto g launches with DeeperDive. The company gave no launch date or revenue estimate on 28 October 2026. (passed 9d ago)
What would change the view
The case breaks if third-quarter ex-TAC gross profit comes in under $184 million or adjusted EBITDA under $51.5 million. It also breaks if management lowers the full-year $772–783 million ex-TAC range or names another traffic source lost to a platform policy change. On price, a daily close below $2.95 would erase the stabilisation since the $3.23 close of 2 October 2026.
A report that meets the floors and holds the full-year range, followed by a close above $3.60, would strengthen the case. A disclosed DeeperDive revenue line would add a second profit driver to a story that now rests on cost and mix improvement.
What it trades with
Taboola's revenue depends on traffic from publisher sites and on search-engine and browser rules, so Google policy changes move it more than broad technology indices. The 5 August 2026 reset showed that exposure. Digital advertising peers react to the same ad-spend data, but no current peer comparison is cited here. The Dianomi offer announced on 18 September 2026, at about £19 million upfront, is small against quarterly revenue of $476.8 million and is unlikely to drive correlation with other stocks.
Notes
- Israel-domiciled issuer (Taboola.com Ltd.) with Nasdaq-listed ordinary shares; reports in US dollars.
- The company guides on ex-TAC gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, both non-GAAP measures; it does not guide GAAP earnings per share.
- A US securities class action covers purchasers from 6 May to 4 August 2026; the lead-plaintiff deadline passed on 20 October 2026.
- DeeperDive has no separately disclosed revenue line or third-party customer count as of the 5 August 2026 Q2 release.