VYX · NCR Voyix
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $9.40
Updated ·
Price against the kill line
11.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $9.40, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are up 36.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $9.40, under the $9.43 close of 4 November 2026 before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-results gain; or full-year 2026 revenue below the $2,188 million low end of guidance.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 539
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −20.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 7.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −826
- Price to earnings (×)
- 12.0
All filed numbers
What NCR Voyix reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| filed | 539 | −20.4 | 7.8 |
| filed | 523 | −20.8 | 2.7 |
| filed | 606 | −1.0 | −3.1 |
| filed | 677 | −4.4 | 2.1 |
| filed | 660 | −8.6 | 2.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 21.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 119 | 24.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +1.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 136 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 275 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus short-term borrowings | 1,101 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −826 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −17.6% on a year | 182 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) 0.0% on a year | 1,200 |
| Receivables ($M) | 410 |
| Inventory ($M) | 121 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 952 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,424 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,250 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 12.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 13 November 2026): 23.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 11.1 days of average trading to cover, +1.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $105K |
The thesis
NCR Voyix's shares have a modest edge over the S&P 500 for the next three months. Large grocers and restaurant chains are signing onto its cloud platform, and margins are rising even as reported revenue shrinks. The fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027, settles the case. It shows whether full-year 2026 revenue holds the low end of guidance and whether new contracts begin to lift recurring revenue.
The company reported third-quarter 2026 results on 5 November 2026. Revenue was $539 million, against $677 million a year earlier. Most of the drop reflects the move of hardware to an outsourced design-and-manufacturing model, completed at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Software and services revenue was flat at $500 million. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) was $120 million, a 22.3% margin against 18.2% a year earlier. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.32, ahead of the $0.28 analyst estimate reported by Benzinga.
The weak spot is growth. Recurring revenue rose to $428 million from $422 million. The company now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $2,188–$2,303 million range because customers delayed hardware purchases and the related installation work. The rating is Medium because momentum in contracts and margins is measurable now, while the revenue line has yet to confirm it.
The price already reflects part of the recovery. The shares closed at $10.45 on 11 November 2026, up 23.1% over three months and above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Bullish and bearish views on NCR Voyix Corporation
The bull case on NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX), in brief: Platform contract value is compounding fast. The bear case: recurring revenue barely grows.
Bull case
- Platform contract value is compounding fast. Remaining Contract Value on the Voyix Commerce Platform was about $440 million at 30 September 2026, up 151% year over year and 54% from the prior quarter, according to the company's 8-K results release.
- Large customers signed in a single month. Ahold Delhaize USA agreed to a multi-year modernisation of its grocery store technology on the platform (2 November 2026). First Watch committed nearly 600 restaurants to Aloha Next (27 October 2026), and Sbarro committed nearly 300 locations to point-of-sale and payments (14 October 2026).
- Margins are expanding on less revenue. The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 22.3% from 18.2%. Continuing operations swung to $14 million of GAAP net income from an $18 million loss a year earlier (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Cash flow is close to the full-year target. Adjusted free cash flow before restructuring was $189 million for the first nine months of 2026. The full-year guide is $190–$220 million, and $28 million of shares were repurchased over the nine months.
- Deployments are going live. Morrisons began rolling out Emerald checkout software, built with NCR Voyix, across its UK stores (company news, 10 November 2026). Aloha Next went live at its first location in the third quarter.
Bear case
- Recurring revenue barely grows. Recurring revenue grew from $422 million to $428 million in the third quarter of 2026. Recurring software revenue grew from $202 million to $208 million. The contract wins have not yet reached reported revenue.
- Revenue guidance slipped to the floor. On 5 November 2026 the company said 2026 revenue would land at the low end of $2,188–$2,303 million because hardware purchases were delayed. The $0.89–$0.92 earnings-per-share guide sits at or below the $0.92 estimate Benzinga reported.
- Restructuring still absorbs cash. Third-quarter adjusted free cash flow was $62 million before restructuring costs but only $19 million after them (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Debt and management turnover. Long-term debt stood at $1,101 million against $275 million of cash at 30 September 2026. The company named a new President and a new head of Retail and Payments on 5 November 2026.
- Small insider sale at lower prices. The President of Restaurants sold 12,750 shares in the open market at $8.20 on 13 August 2026 (SEC Form 4). The Form 4 filed 2 November 2026 by Darren Wilson records an option exercise and shares withheld for tax, with no open-market sale.
Price setup
The shares closed at $10.45 on 11 November 2026. On adjusted daily closes, the 50-day moving average is $7.93 and the 200-day moving average is $7.78. The last close sits well above both.
The move came in two steps. The Ahold Delhaize agreement on 2 November 2026 preceded a $9.43 close on 4 November 2026. The third-quarter report followed, with a $9.86 close on 5 November 2026 and a run to $10.45 by 11 November 2026.
The 52-week intraday high is $11.51, set on 12 November 2025, and the last close is 9.2% below it. The 52-week closing low is $6.15, on 2 April 2026. The 3-month reference close was $8.49 on 13 August 2026.
The $9.43 close of 4 November 2026 marks the price before the results. Falling back under it would mean the market has given up the post-report gain. The $11.51 high is the next prior peak above the current price.
Catalysts ahead
- ~11 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether 2026 revenue holds the $2,188M low end of guidance, whether recurring revenue growth rises above Q3's pace as platform contracts convert, and what the company guides for 2027.
What would change the view
A daily close below $9.40, under the $9.43 close of 4 November 2026 before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-results gain; or full-year 2026 revenue below the $2,188 million low end of guidance.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Delayed hardware purchases push 2026 revenue below the guided range. Confirmed by: full-year 2026 revenue below $2,188M reported with fourth-quarter results.
- Platform contract wins convert to recurring revenue more slowly than signings suggest. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 recurring revenue growing no faster than Q3's $422M-to-$428M year-over-year pace.
- Platform signings stall after the October–November burst of agreements. Confirmed by: Voyix Commerce Platform Remaining Contract Value falling from about $440M at the fourth-quarter report.
- Restructuring costs keep absorbing cash while long-term debt stands at $1,101M. Confirmed by: full-year adjusted free cash flow before restructuring below the $190M low end of guidance.
- Management changes disrupt execution in Retail and Payments. Confirmed by: further senior departures or a reorganisation charge disclosed in an 8-K before the fourth-quarter report.
What it trades with
NCR Voyix trades mainly on its own news: contract announcements, the hardware transition and its cash flow. The 2 November 2026 Ahold Delhaize agreement and the 5 November 2026 results moved the shares more than any industry datapoint did. PAR Technology is the closest listed peer in restaurant point-of-sale software. A shift in restaurant or grocery technology budgets would hit both companies.
The revenue shortfall on 5 November 2026 came from customers delaying hardware purchases. That ties the shares to how much retailers and restaurants are spending on stores. A slowdown in store capital spending would hit installation revenue before it reaches software subscriptions.
Notes
- Since the end of the first quarter of 2026, hardware is designed and made under an outsourced model, so reported revenue is lower against 2025 periods.
- The company reports Remaining Contract Value for its Voyix Commerce Platform rather than annual recurring revenue, so recurring-revenue metrics before 2026 are not directly comparable.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $539M versus $677M a year earlier; software and services revenue was flat at $500M. Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 recurring revenue was $428M versus $422M; recurring software revenue was $208M versus $202M. Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $120M, a 22.3% margin versus 18.2% a year earlier; non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.32. Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Voyix Commerce Platform Remaining Contract Value was about $440M, up 151% year over year and 54% sequentially. Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- FY2026 guidance maintained: revenue $2,188M–$2,303M, now expected at the low end; adjusted EBITDA $432M–$447M; non-GAAP EPS $0.89–$0.92. Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Nine-month 2026 adjusted free cash flow before restructuring was $189M against a full-year guide of $190M–$220M; $28M of stock repurchased. Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Ahold Delhaize USA signed a multi-year agreement to modernise grocery store technology on the Voyix Commerce Platform. NCR Voyix company announcement · as of
- EVP and President, Restaurants Beimnet Tadele sold 12,750 shares in the open market at $8.20. SEC Form 4 filed 14 August 2026 · as of
Sources
- NCR Voyix Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- NCR Voyix Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · morningstar.com ·
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