WULF · TeraWulf Inc. · Stock research

Current Thesis

The leg on offer is unchanged in shape: interconnected power converted into twenty-year contracted AI rent. The anchor is the 2026-07-06 lease between subsidiary Raylan Data LLC and Anthropic PBC covering roughly 401 MW of critical IT at the Kentucky (Justified Data) campus — approximately $19B of contracted revenue over the initial term, up to roughly $33B if both five-year extensions are exercised, with initial capacity guided into service in H2 2027 and the full 401 MW in early 2028. None of it reaches a 2026 income statement. Until it does, the equity is priced by financing terms, share count and how the neocloud cohort trades against long-duration rates.

What advanced since the last update is the disclosure vacuum breaking, and the tape's answer to it. On 2026-08-24 the company announced that the Kentucky Public Service Commission had approved the Retail Electric Service Agreement for the Justified Data Campus in Hancock County — an order dated 2026-08-21 authorising Big Rivers Electric Corp. And Kenergy Corp. To serve up to 482 MW, on a 790-acre former Century Aluminum smelter site, with company-estimated site development and initial data-hall investment of $4.0B–$4.5B. That is the retail-power question at the campus carrying the Anthropic lease, cleared, and it ended a 19-day silence running from the 2026-08-05 Q2 release.

Benzinga quoted the shares up 1.69% at $15.90 intraday that Monday. The adjusted close for the session was $15.48 — below the 2026-08-21 close of $15.64 and two cents below the $15.50 of 2026-08-19 that had stood as the August closing floor. RSI(14) printed 32.8, 46.6% below the $28.98 52-week high, with a three-month price change of -38.5%. One session is one observation. It is, however, the specific observation the reclaim case needed to go the other way: the most favourable company-specific headline in three weeks was bought at the open and given back by the close.

The narrative is saturated, unchanged. Dating it — Roundhill listed a Neocloud ETF (NCLD) on 2026-08-06, so the theme trades as a packaged basket rather than a discovery; the strongest cohort print of the cycle (CoreWeave, 2026-08-11) bought roughly three sessions of cohort strength; on 2026-08-18/19 the marginal bid rotated within the basket, with The Futurum Group's ledger ranking IREN first on AI monetisation efficiency at $40M/MW ahead of CoreWeave; and on 2026-08-24 a regulatory clearance on the anchor asset faded into a lower close. Not dead: the lease is filed, dated and unrestructured, and HPC rent is already the majority of revenue.

Bullish and bearish views on TeraWulf Inc.

The model's bull view on TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), in brief: The permitting question at the Anthropic campus is answered. The bear view: The income statement is years behind the contract. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• The permitting question at the Anthropic campus is answered. The Kentucky PSC order of 2026-08-21, announced 2026-08-24, authorises retail service of up to 482 MW and found the agreement "provides adequate protections for existing customers … establishes rates that are fair, just and reasonable." Set against New York, where the 2026-07-14 hyperscale moratorium sits on Lake Mariner expansion with a stated one-year term, Kentucky is now the unblocked leg.
• Contracted rent is already the majority of the top line. Q2 2026 HPC lease revenue was $31.9M of $44.8M total (71%), against $21.0M of $34.0M in Q1 (2026-08-05 results release).
• The forward step sits in published estimates. An 18-analyst compilation carries 2026 revenue of $270.10M and 2027 of $905.32M, with an average target of $36.64 against a $25 low and a $62.50 high (stockanalysis.com, retrieved 2026-08-20). The 2026-08-24 close of $15.48 is roughly 38% under the lowest of those published targets.
• The prospective lead arranger holds the highest target. Morgan Stanley is leading the roughly $3.5B leveraged-loan and high-yield package for the Kentucky campus (Bloomberg, 2026-07-09) and reiterated Overweight at $62.50 on 2026-08-13 after cutting from $72. B. Riley raised to $40 with a Buy on 2026-08-03; Bernstein maintained an outperform call with roughly 100% upside on 2026-08-06.
• Capacity is stepping on the stated schedule. 81 MW of revenue-generating critical IT at 2026-06-30, 102 MW after CB-3 completed in early July, CB-4's first data hall in commissioning with phased delivery and rent commencement guided into H2 2026, CB-5 targeted for early 2027 (2026-08-05). FERC authorised the subsidiary acquisition of Morgantown Power on 2026-07-30.

Bear Case

• The income statement is years behind the contract. Q2 2026 GAAP EPS was $(1.94) against a $(0.22) consensus and revenue $44.767M against $46.392M expected (2026-08-05); adjusted EBITDA was $(18.3)M. No Anthropic rent can be recognised before initial Kentucky capacity is in service, guided H2 2027.
• The balance sheet is carrying the build. Total debt was $4.1B at 2026-06-30 ($3.0B long-term plus $1.0B convertible notes) against H1 2026 capex of $1.38B (Q2 10-Q, filed 2026-08-05). Weighted average shares were 485.7M; Morgan Stanley carried 624.8M diluted on 2026-08-13.
• There is a clock on the permanent financing. The $500M delayed-draw bridge signed 2026-03-13 with Morgan Stanley Senior Funding is a 364-day facility priced at Term SOFR plus 2.75%, with a $100M minimum-liquidity covenant, for the Hawesville, Kentucky build. On its stated tenor it comes due inside Q1 2027, which is the constraint on the roughly $3.5B package Bloomberg placed before year-end 2026.
• Targets are being cut while the deal narrative is intact. KBW cut to $30 on 2026-07-28; Morgan Stanley cut from $72 to $62.50 on 2026-08-13. Both retained positive ratings, so the reductions are about the path, not the asset.
• Reported earnings are distorted by warrant marks. Non-cash Google-warrant charges were $755.7M in Q2 2026 and $216.3M in Q1 2026, against roughly 73.5M penny warrants disclosed through mid-2026.
• Bitcoin still sits in the revenue line. Digital-asset revenue was $12.8M of the $44.8M Q2 total.

Setup & Price Structure

• The closing sequence: $16.20 on 2026-08-10, $17.38 on 08-14, $15.50 on 08-19, $16.45 on 08-20, $15.64 on 08-21, $15.48 on 08-24. No higher low since 2026-08-14, and the August closing floor gave way on the session of the PSC headline.
• RSI(14) at 32.8 follows 33.6 on 08-21 and 44.0 on 08-20 — pressing into oversold territory without a reversal close to date.
• The 2026-07-06 Anthropic gap zone near $30 was retraced weeks ago and is no longer live structure. The immediate question is narrower: whether $15.48–$15.50 becomes a shelf or a step, and whether any subsequent company release closes green.
• Positioning observables, stated as observables: short interest was 104.37M shares at the 2026-07-31 settlement, 27.32% of the 382.05M float, with the next report due 2026-08-26; a dedicated Neocloud ETF (NCLD) began trading 2026-08-06, giving the cohort passive plumbing that did not exist in July; CEO-affiliated Beowulf E&D Holdings has been a recurring open-market seller under Rule 10b5-1 plans through 2026; and the roughly $3.5B Kentucky raise is unpriced, so the denominator the $19B contract is divided across is unknown.
• The trailing three-month figure moved from -31.5% (as of 08-21) to -38.5% (as of 08-24) largely because the reference point three months back rolled forward, not because of a single session's move.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• 2026-08-26 — Short-interest report covering the 2026-08-14 settlement date. First read on whether the 104.37M-share base was added to or covered into the August de-rate.
• ~2026-09-10 (est.) — Short-interest report covering the 2026-08-31 settlement. Turns any change into a two-print direction rather than a single reading.
• ~2026-09-30 (est.) — CB-4 first data-hall energisation and rent commencement at Lake Mariner, guided H2 2026. The hall was in commissioning at 2026-08-05; no date has been disclosed, so any confirmation arrives unscheduled.

Elapsed catalysts

• Undated inside the window — Launch of the roughly $3.5B Morgan Stanley-led leveraged-loan and high-yield package (Bloomberg placed it before year-end 2026 on 2026-07-09), and interim New York rulemaking under the 2026-07-14 moratorium. (passed 43d ago)

What Would Change Our Mind

The break that matters is structural rather than fundamental right now: the Anthropic lease is filed and unrestructured, and Kentucky's retail-power question was cleared on 2026-08-21, so the disconfirming evidence has to come from price and from the funding. A weekly close below $15 removes the $15.48–$15.50 August closing shelf and dates the point at which the pivot re-rate stops being late-cycle and starts being failed; at that point the saturated read would be re-labelled dead. A second, independent break: the roughly $3.5B package arriving with a material equity-linked component, or an equity raise alongside it, pushing the diluted count beyond the 624.8M Morgan Stanley carried on 2026-08-13.

Evidence running the other way, which would re-open the case: CB-4 energisation and rent commencement confirmed by a dated release before year-end 2026, Q3 HPC lease revenue stepping above the $31.9M booked in Q2, or the financing clearing as straight debt at a spread the market treats as investment-grade-adjacent. A weekly close back above the $17.38 of 2026-08-14, with the short base still above 100M shares, would be the first structural evidence that the marginal bid returned.

Correlation Notes

• The name trades as a neocloud cohort member with CRWV, IREN, HUT, GLXY, CORZ and NBIS. On 2026-08-12 the group rallied on the CoreWeave and Nebius prints; on 2026-08-18 Benzinga attributed the group's decline to inflation fears and surging bond yields, with no company-specific news.
• Intra-basket rotation is a live drag, not just a beta: on 2026-08-18/19 The Futurum Group's ledger ranked IREN first on contracted revenue per megawatt at $40M/MW, IREN rallied, and WULF closed at $15.50.
• Bitcoin correlation persists through the $12.8M Q2 digital-asset line, but has been weak: bitcoin traded above $77,000 on 2026-08-21 and the shares closed down that session.
• Counterparty concentration links the equity to private AI-lab funding conditions — Anthropic, Fluidstack and Google sit behind essentially all contracted revenue and credit backstops.
• Long-duration rate sensitivity dominates on macro days; the 2026-08-18 session is the cleanest recent example of company news being irrelevant to the print.