Journal ·
Friday, 1 May 2026
Regime Risk-onMarket regime
Risk-on — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.99 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 61.6% (602/978) of names above their 50-day EMA (healthy participation). SPY closed 720.49 — +8.9% vs its 200-EMA (661.80).
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-on | Close-of-day read |
| VIX | 16.99 | Calm — no fear bid |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 61.6% (602/978) | Healthy participation |
| SPY close | 720.49 | +8.9% vs 200-EMA (661.80) |
Regime assessment
The model reads risk-on: the S&P 500 is above its 200-day average, breadth is healthy and volatility is contained.
Status
Close-of-day regime for 1 May 2026: risk-on.