Journal ·
Monday, 4 May 2026
Regime NeutralMarket regime
Neutral — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 18.29 (elevated). Breadth 56.6% (554/978) of names above their 50-day EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 718.09 — +8.5% vs its 200-EMA (661.88).
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Neutral | Flip from risk-on |
| VIX | 18.29 | Elevated |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 56.6% (554/978) | Mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends |
| SPY close | 718.09 | +8.5% vs 200-EMA (661.88) |
Regime assessment
Regime flipped to neutral from the prior risk-on read, the first neutral print. The model reads neutral: the signals are mixed, neither confirming a rally nor pointing to stress.
Status
Close-of-day regime for 4 May 2026: neutral. Changed from risk-on.