Journal ·
Monday, 4 May 2026
Regime NeutralMarket Regime
NEUTRAL — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.99 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 57.1% (558/978) of names above their 200-EMA (mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 717.09 — +8.3% vs its 200-EMA (661.87).
Key Macro Reads
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | NEUTRAL | Flip from RISK-ON |
| VIX | 16.99 | Calm — no fear bid |
| Breadth >200-EMA | 57.1% (558/978) | Mixed — about half of names in primary uptrends |
| SPY close | 717.09 | +8.3% vs 200-EMA (661.87) |
Regime Assessment
Regime flipped to NEUTRAL from the prior RISK-ON read. A mixed tape — the model reads neutral. Participation is not broad enough to lean in hard nor weak enough to de-risk. Be selective; let conviction, not breadth, do the work.
Research Funnel
The screen cast a 132-name universe; 20 cleared the conviction floor for deeper research. (Screening reach only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed.)
Status
Regime NEUTRAL on the public ledger for 2026-05-04. Flipped from the prior RISK-ON read. Entry reconstructed from the pipeline's recorded close-of-day regime state. Research only — no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L.
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