Journal ·
Thursday, 21 May 2026
Regime Risk-onMarket regime
Risk-on — the model's authoritative close-of-day read. VIX 16.76 (calm, vol easing). Breadth 56.8% (556/979) of names above their 50-day EMA (healthy but marginal — just over half of names in primary uptrends). SPY closed 742.71 — +11.0% vs its 200-EMA (669.21).
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-on | First risk-on print, a flip from neutral |
| VIX | 16.76 | Calm — vol easing |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 56.8% (556/979) | Healthy but marginal — just over half of names in primary uptrends |
| SPY close | 742.71 | +11.0% vs 200-EMA (669.21) |
Regime assessment
Regime flipped to risk-on from the prior neutral read. The model reads risk-on: the S&P 500 is above its 200-day average, breadth is healthy, if marginal, and volatility is contained.
Status
Close-of-day regime for 21 May 2026: risk-on. Changed from neutral.