Journal ·
Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Regime Risk-offMarket regime
Risk-off — the model's close-of-day read. VIX 17.2 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 36.4% (356/979) of names above their 50-day EMA (deteriorating — most names below their 50-day EMA). SPY closed 757.42 — +5.2% vs its 200-EMA (719.82).
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-off | Flip from neutral |
| VIX | 17.2 | Calm — no fear bid |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 36.4% (356/979) | Deteriorating — most names below their 50-day ema |
| SPY close | 757.42 | +5.2% vs 200-EMA (719.82) |
Regime assessment
Regime flipped to risk-off from the prior neutral read. The model reads risk-off: at least one of trend, breadth or volatility has turned against risk-taking.
Status
Close-of-day regime for 15 September 2026: risk-off. Changed from neutral.