Journal ·
Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Regime Risk-offMarket regime
Risk-off — the model's close-of-day read. VIX 17.71 (calm, no fear bid). Breadth 33.4% (327/979) of names above their 50-day EMA (deteriorating — most names below their 50-day EMA). SPY closed 754.05 — +4.6% vs its 200-EMA (720.58).
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-off | Close-of-day read |
| VIX | 17.71 | Calm — no fear bid |
| Breadth >50-day EMA | 33.4% (327/979) | Deteriorating — most names below their 50-day ema |
| SPY close | 754.05 | +4.6% vs 200-EMA (720.58) |
Regime assessment
The model reads risk-off: at least one of trend, breadth or volatility has turned against risk-taking.
Status
Close-of-day regime for 16 September 2026: risk-off.