Journal ·
Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Regime Risk-offMarket regime
Credit repricing leads today: FRED reports a 29bps weekly increase in high-yield spreads through 28 September 2026, indicating higher compensation for credit risk despite calm equity volatility. The measured change is week over week; the data do not establish a same-day move.
Key numbers
| Metric | Level | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Regime | Risk-off | Close-of-day read |
| VIX | 16.04 | Calm |
| Breadth above 50-day EMA | 28.8% (282/978) | Deteriorating |
| SPY close / 200-EMA | 764.38 / 722.97 | +5.7% above trend |
| 10Y Treasury | 5.24% | 2026-09-28; week over week +13bps |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.92% | 2026-09-28; week over week +7bps |
| 10Y–2Y spread | 0.32% | 2026-09-28; week over week +6bps |
| 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.34% | 2026-09-28; week over week -1bps |
| Real 10Y rate | 2.90% | 2026-09-28; week over week +14bps |
| HY credit spread | 3.02% | 2026-09-28; week over week +29bps |
| Fed funds | 3.63% | 2026-08-01 |
| Initial jobless claims | 197K | 2026-09-19; week over week -1K |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 |
| Nonfarm payrolls | 159.1M | 2026-08-01; change not reported |
| Housing starts | 1,275K | 2026-08-01; change not reported |
Regime assessment
Index-level resilience is insufficient evidence of broad equity strength while participation is deteriorating. That divergence supports a defensive market characterization, conditional on the reversal test below. The payroll and housing levels lack changes and cannot establish an improving or contracting activity backdrop.
What would change the call
The defensive interpretation would be invalidated by a joint improvement: breadth rising above 28.8%, high-yield spreads narrowing below 3.02% and real yields falling below 2.90%, while SPY remains above its 200-EMA.
What to watch
Activity watchpoints are subsequent claims, payroll and housing-starts releases. Release dates are not yet scheduled; payroll and housing changes are needed to assess direction.
Status
Risk-off — eleventh consecutive read in the journal.