ARQQ · Arqit Quantum Inc.

The thesis

The full fiscal 2026 results, expected in December 2026, show whether a NATO contract and about $51 million of cash can restart the revenue line.

Arqit published the preliminary figures on 8 October 2026 in a 6-K filing (exhibit 99.1). Second-half revenue for the six months to 30 September 2026 is expected at $355,000 to $380,000, below the $463,000 of the same half a year earlier and the $623,000 first half. The company said it stopped recognising revenue under a material contract with a Middle East customer whose ability to meet its obligations was hit by geopolitical events in the region.

Since the previous note, Arqit announced on 20 October 2026 a strategic investment in Sirius Computer, a supplier of secure networking for defence and critical infrastructure. No financial terms were disclosed. The narrative is dead on its fiscal 2026 revenue terms: the shares closed at $16.30 on 26 October 2026, against $24.06 on 30 September 2026 and a 52-week high of $47.04.

Bullish and bearish views on Arqit Quantum Inc.

The bull case on Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ), in brief: A NATO contract is new revenue. The bear case: Revenue fell in the second half.

Bull case

• A NATO contract is new revenue. On 6 October 2026 Arqit signed, within a winning consortium, to provide secure networking services to NATO. The contract runs one year with two annual renewal options, and the company did not disclose its value (6-K, 8 October 2026).
• Sirius ties Arqit to the NATO work. Arqit said on 20 October 2026 that the Sirius investment will fund development of the Crux connectivity product and deeper integration with Arqit's encryption software. The two companies are in the same NATO consortium.

• Contract count keeps rising. Arqit signed seven new contracts in fiscal 2026, including three for its Encryption Intelligence product in the second half (6-K, 8 October 2026).
• Full-year revenue still grew. Preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue of $975,000 to $1 million compares with $530,000 in fiscal 2025.

Bear case

• Revenue fell in the second half. Second-half revenue of $355,000 to $380,000 is below the $463,000 of the second half of fiscal 2025 (6-K, 8 October 2026).
• One customer carried too much weight. Arqit called the halted Middle East contract material. Its loss pushed the year below the roughly $1.2 million the company gave in its fiscal 2025 results on 9 December 2025.
• Cash burn dwarfs revenue. Arqit reported $25.7 million of operating cash outflow for the half-year to 31 March 2026 against $623,000 of revenue (half-year operating review).
• Share sales fund the business. The same filing reported about $18 million of gross proceeds from at-the-market equity sales in that half. A programme set up in January 2026 permits sales of up to $125 million.
• Cash now also funds a stake in Sirius. The 20 October 2026 announcement gave no amount, so the effect on the $51 million cash balance is unknown until the December results.
• Insiders sold into the summer rally. MarketBeat counted 70,785 shares, worth about $2.1 million, sold by insiders over the 90 days to 28 September 2026, including 9,893 shares sold by chief executive Andrew Leaver at an average of $25.20.

Price setup

The shares closed at $16.30 on 26 October 2026, 65.4% below the 52-week high of $47.04. The 14-day relative strength index (a momentum gauge where readings under 30 are called oversold) stood at 25.4 on that date. The three-month price change was 5.2%, so the summer gain has largely survived while the October fall has been steep.

The close sits below the $16.84 close of 13 October 2026 cited in the previous note. The $20.70 price line in the earlier note was crossed on the way down, and the $14.30 invalidation level in the previous note remains below the current close. The selling followed the 8 October 2026 revenue release.

Crowding evidence is mixed. Insider sales in the 90 days to 28 September 2026 came at prices near $25. The at-the-market programme lets the company issue shares into any rally. No earnings date falls in the next 30 days.

Catalysts, next 30 days

No company event with a confirmed date falls before 26 November 2026. The case turns on one later event.

• ~9 December 2026 (est.): full fiscal 2026 results and conference call. The report confirms the preliminary revenue, discloses second-half cash burn and share sales, states the amount invested in Sirius, and says whether the Middle East contract is written off.

What would change the view

The case breaks further if the December 2026 results write off the Middle East contract and show second-half operating cash outflow near the first half's $25.7 million, with at-the-market proceeds near the $18 million raised in that half. It breaks too if no NATO or Sirius-linked revenue appears in first-half fiscal 2027 results, due around May 2027.

The case improves if the December results disclose a value for the NATO contract, a named paid contract from Babcock or Es'hailSat, or signs that the Middle East customer will resume payment. On price, a daily close below $14.30 would end the thesis; that level sits under the 26 October 2026 close of $16.30.

What it trades with

Arqit trades with other Quantum computing and quantum-security shares, so sector moves in either group can swing it independently of its own revenue. Its own news, such as the 8 October 2026 release, has moved it more than sector news in recent weeks. Peer-group figures are not cited here because none were verified for this note.