AVR · Anteris Technologies Global Corp.

The thesis

Anteris Technologies has the cash to run its DurAVR heart-valve pivotal trial, and the trial keeps adding countries, but the shares have kept falling and the company's own stock-sale program is the main overhang. The September-quarter cash-flow report, due by the end of October 2026, shows whether the company sold stock into the decline. The shares closed at $6.10 on 28 October 2026, 42.3% below the $10.57 52-week high and down 22.2% over three months (adjusted daily closes).

The company reported $260.9 million of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at 30 June 2026 (Q2 2026 10-Q, via the 424B3 prospectus supplement filed 12 August 2026). Operating cash outflow was $20.8 million in the June quarter (results release, 11 August 2026).

The narrative is maturing: the clinical story is well known, and the newest company news is incremental. Anteris announced German regulatory clearance for the PARADIGM trial on 20 October 2026, and on 27 October 2026 it announced a first presentation of 30-day outcomes for its medium-size DurAVR valve at the TCT 2026 cardiology meeting. The $6.36 close of 15 October 2026 has given way to $6.10, so the slide continues and the standing rating stays at the coverage level.

Bullish and bearish views on Anteris Technologies Global Corp.

The bull case on Anteris Technologies Global Corp. (AVR), in brief: Cash covers the near-term burn. The bear case: The decline has not stopped.

Bull case

• Cash covers the near-term burn. The company held $260.9 million at 30 June 2026 against a $20.8 million operating outflow for the June quarter (10-Q). Management says existing cash should cover operations for at least 12 months.
• The trial footprint is widening. Anteris announced German clearance for PARADIGM on 20 October 2026, adding to the United States, Denmark, the Netherlands, Canada and France reported on 11 August 2026. Germany is described in the company's release as Europe's largest transcatheter aortic valve market.
• A clinical data point arrives at a major meeting. On 27 October 2026 the company said it will present first 30-day clinical and hemodynamic outcomes for the medium-size DurAVR valve at TCT 2026. Early valve-performance data from a new size is the first trial-adjacent clinical news since the August results.
• Analyst targets sit well above the price. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight with a $15 target on 14 October 2026. Barclays initiated at Equal-Weight with a $10 target on 7 October 2026. Both exceed the $6.10 close of 28 October 2026.
• Momentum selling has eased from its extreme. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a 0-to-100 momentum gauge, was 37.6 on 28 October 2026, against 23.1 on 15 October 2026.

Bear case

• The decline has not stopped. The shares closed at $9.40 on 14 August 2026, $8.16 on 18 September 2026, $7.71 on 2 October 2026, $6.36 on 15 October 2026 and $6.10 on 28 October 2026 (adjusted daily closes).
• A large stock-sale program is open. The at-the-market program announced 22 May 2026 allows sales of up to $250 million of common stock. The company had 97,458,474 shares outstanding at 10 August 2026 (424B3 filed 12 August 2026).
• That supply raises no cash for the company.
• Spending is rising. The six-month net loss was $52.1 million, and a $23.2 million property lease commitment began 1 September 2026 (10-Q). June-quarter research and development expense was $23.4 million against revenue of $1.009 million.
• Results are years away. PARADIGM's one-year primary endpoint falls around 2028, with enrollment completion guided for about the first quarter of 2027. News until then concerns site activations and early data from small samples.
• A supplier contract is on a short extension. A subsidiary extended its Harvey Industries Group bovine pericardia agreement to the earlier of 31 December 2026 or a replacement agreement (8-K, 24 September 2026).

Price setup

The adjusted close of $6.10 on 28 October 2026 sits 42.3% under the $10.57 52-week high. The shares have lost 22.2% over three months. They closed at $9.40 on 14 August 2026, so the fall since mid-August is about a third of that level.

The $5.50 level in the previous note remains below the market. A close under it would extend the decline past the round-number level that held through the 15 October 2026 close.

Crowding evidence is limited to the open at-the-market program and the resale registration. No SEC Form 4 insider sales or retail-attention data are cited here. The next scheduled events are the September-quarter cash-flow report and the TCT presentation, both within days.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~12 November 2026 (est.): Third-quarter 2026 results. Anteris reported its third quarter 2025 results on 12 November 2025. This report updates site activations, research spending and revenue against the $1.009 million for the June quarter.
• 31 December 2026: Harvey Industries supply amendment term ends unless replaced. It falls outside the 30-day window but bears on manufacturing continuity.

Elapsed catalysts

• ~30 October 2026 (est.): ASX Appendix 4C quarterly cash-flow report for the September quarter. The ASX deadline is one month after quarter-end, 31 October 2026, which is a Saturday. It shows cash burn and any proceeds from at-the-market sales during the fall from $9.40 in August. (passed 6d ago)
• 31 October to 3 November 2026: TCT 2026 cardiology meeting in San Diego, as dated in the previous note. Anteris announced on 27 October 2026 that it will present first 30-day outcomes for the medium-size DurAVR valve; the session date is not in the company headline. (passed 3d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if PARADIGM enrollment is suspended, or if a filing shows heavy at-the-market issuance at prices well below recent levels. The September-quarter cash-flow report is the first test. Operating outflow well above the $20.8 million of the June quarter would show spending running ahead of plan.

Adverse 30-day outcomes for the medium-size valve at TCT 2026 would weaken the clinical case. A small early cohort supports no firm conclusion in either direction, so a clean result would not by itself change the rating.

A daily close below $5.50 would extend the slide from the $10.57 52-week high and end the case as written. A rating above the coverage level would need evidence that issuance has been small and that the shares have stopped falling.

What it trades with

Anteris trades on both the ASX and NASDAQ as AVR. Its closest trading relationships are with other clinical-stage medical-device companies that depend on equity raises, and with the incumbent valve makers whose meeting news arrives at TCT.

Medtronic, through Covidien, is a top shareholder and also the incumbent competitor in transcatheter aortic valves. Competitor data at TCT can move the shares independent of Anteris's own news.