AYA · Aya Gold & Silver Inc.

The thesis

Aya Gold & Silver's record third-quarter (Q3) output should lift cash generation, and the financial results on 12 November 2026 settle whether realized prices and costs allow it. The shares closed at $24.55 on 5 November 2026 (adjusted daily close), under the $25 weekly-close level named in the previous note.

Two company releases have arrived since the 29 October 2026 note. On 4 November 2026 Aya reported Boumadine drill results and three more exploration permits. On 5 November 2026 it signed a term sheet to sell the Azegour copper-tungsten-molybdenum project to Sama Resources for Sama shares. Both concern exploration and the asset portfolio, so the cash case still rests on Zgounder and the Boumadine reclaim.

The narrative is maturing: the story is well known after the 4 May 2026 Nasdaq listing and the 16 June 2026 VanEck Gold Miners ETF addition, and the shares closed lower on 5 November 2026 than the $26.00 of 15 October 2026 despite three company releases in between. The three-month change has swung to a 12.1% loss from the 28.7% gain in the previous note.

Bullish and bearish views on Aya Gold & Silver Inc.

The bull case on Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA), in brief: Consolidated output is rising fast. The bear case: Zgounder growth has nearly stalled.

Bull case

• Consolidated output is rising fast. Aya's 14 October 2026 release shows Q3 production of 2,034,628 silver-equivalent ounces, up 51% from a year earlier and 21% from Q2. Year-to-date output stands at 5,204,752 silver-equivalent ounces.
• Cash results start from strength. Aya's Q2 results on 13 August 2026 show revenue of US$97 million, operating cash flow of US$48 million and cash of US$183 million. Realized price was US$64.22 against a cash cost of US$16.82 per silver-equivalent ounce.
• Boumadine reclaim lifts volume. Pyrite reclaim produced 536,879 silver-equivalent ounces in Q3, up 186% from Q2's 187,784. Aya expects the reclaim to run about 20 to 24 months from 19 November 2025.
• Drilling keeps extending Boumadine. Aya's 4 November 2026 release reports hole BOU-DD26-1072 at 239 grams per tonne silver equivalent over 17.0 metres, including 953 grams per tonne over 1.7 metres. Three new permits take the project area to 357 square kilometres, according to StockTitan's summary of the release.
• Drilling is ahead of plan. Year-to-date drilling reached 181,685 metres by 4 November 2026, past the 180,000-metre 2026 target, and 51% of the 360,000-metre 2026–2027 infill program is complete. Aya said on 15 July 2026 that the feasibility study is expected by the second half of 2027.
• Analysts were positive in October. A TMX Money summary showed three Buy ratings and one Strong Buy, with an average target of C$39.50 against a TSX price of C$38.28 on 1 October 2026.

Bear case

• Zgounder growth has nearly stalled. Silver output rose only 1% from Q2 to Q3, to 1,497,749 ounces, and the 11% year-over-year gain is smaller than the 43% Aya reported for Q2. The faster consolidated growth comes mainly from Boumadine's reclaim, a time-limited operation.
• Good news has in the shares. StockTitan showed an 11.33% rise on the day of the 4 November 2026 drill release, yet the adjusted close on 5 November 2026 was $24.55, below the $25.29 of 28 October 2026. Q2 results on 13 August 2026 were followed by a 3.8% fall.
• Expectations may run ahead of costs. An Earnings Whispers preview dated 4 November 2026 is headlined "Aya Gold & Silver Faces Steeper Strip Ratio As Street Bets On A Sharp Earnings Rebound." A steeper strip ratio means more waste rock moved per tonne of ore, which pushes mining costs up.
• Azegour brings no cash. The 5 November 2026 release describes consideration entirely in Sama common shares, up to 19.11% of Sama after issuance. It is a term sheet that still needs a definitive agreement and regulatory approvals, and it does nothing toward Boumadine's US$463 million initial capital estimate.
• Study value leans on price assumptions. The assessment dated 9 September 2026 shows US$3.5 billion of after-tax net present value and a 93% internal rate of return, assuming gold at US$3,500 and silver at US$50 per ounce. It is preliminary, includes inferred resources and is not a feasibility study.

Price setup

Adjusted daily closes show a steady decline since early October: US$27.12 on 2 October 2026, US$26.00 on 15 October 2026, US$25.29 on 28 October 2026 and US$24.55 on 5 November 2026. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge, was 41.3 on 5 November 2026, against 44.5 in the previous note.

The 5 November 2026 close sits below $25, the level the previous note used for a weekly close. The 6 November 2026 close decides that test for this week.

Crowding evidence is modest. Finviz showed short interest at 5.95% of the float on 6 November 2026, and the RSI reading shows no overheating. The nearest pressure point is the earnings date, four sessions after the 6 November 2026 close. The one share issuance in recent company news is small: C$4.0 million in Aya shares for a Moroccan copper-silver portfolio, announced on 1 September 2026.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 12 November 2026, before the market opens: Q3 2026 financial results, with a management call at 10 a.m. Eastern. Aya set the date in its 21 October 2026 release. The report shows realized price against Q2's US$64.22, cash cost against US$16.82 per silver-equivalent ounce, and operating cash flow against US$48 million on 21% more output.
• Early 2027, per Aya: Zgounder crusher expansion finish. This falls outside the next 30 days and matters because Zgounder silver output has flattened.

Elapsed catalysts

• No date set: definitive agreement for the Azegour sale. The 5 November 2026 release states no expected closing date. (passed 1d ago)

What would change the view

The cash-generation case breaks if Q3 operating cash flow comes in at or below Q2's US$48 million despite 21% more silver-equivalent output. A realized price below US$64.22 together with a cash cost above US$16.82 per silver-equivalent ounce would break it as well. A share offering, debt facility or streaming deal to fund Boumadine's US$463 million initial capital would weaken the self-funding argument, and a fiscal or permitting change in Morocco would hit every asset at once.

On price, the previous note named a weekly close below $25, and a close under that level on 6 November 2026 would mean that test has failed. This note sets its level at a weekly close below $22. StockTitan's 11.33% one-day move on 4 November 2026 shows that the shares swing far more in a day than the 1.2% margin the old level allowed, so the lower level separates a broken case from ordinary movement. The change widens the room for error, and the 12 November 2026 cash figures carry more of the test as a result.

What it trades with

The shares move with precious-metals miners as a group.

The 16 June 2026 addition to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF ties part of the flows to that fund. Company-specific exposure comes from Morocco, where all producing assets and projects sit, so a Moroccan regulatory change would hit the shares regardless of metal prices.