BLZE · Backblaze, Inc.

The thesis

Backblaze's cloud storage is the capacity layer for AI cloud providers, but the roughly $335 million CoreWeave contract has not yet converted into reported revenue, and the early-November Q3 2026 report decides whether it does. The shares closed at $9.91 on 15 October 2026, 51.5% below the 52-week high of $20.43 and well under the $13 level that the prior note set as the end of the recovery case.

The narrative is maturing and now under strain: the CoreWeave deal (23 June 2026), the 3 August 2026 Q2 report and the 9 September 2026 Investor Day are all public, and the shares fell 22.26% on 14 October 2026 to $9.73 from $12.51, according to Yahoo Finance and Global Banking & Finance. Those outlets found no Backblaze announcement behind the move. Kalkine reported that CoreWeave fell about 13% the same day as its bond yields rose, which points to funding fears at the largest customer; no filing confirms that link.

The business guidance has not changed since the prior note. Q3 revenue guidance remains $44.4 million to $44.8 million (3 August 2026), and Chief Financial Officer Marc Suidan targeted B2 Cloud Storage growth of at least 40% on 9 September 2026. MarketBeat shows an average analyst target of $19.71. The shares trade at about half of that.

Bullish and bearish views on Backblaze, Inc.

The bull case on Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE), in brief: Storage growth already accelerated. The bear case: The largest customer shows funding strain.

Bull case

• Storage growth already accelerated. B2 Cloud Storage revenue was $26.6 million in Q2 2026, up 34% from a year earlier, against total revenue of $42.7 million, up 18% (company results, 3 August 2026).
• Contracted revenue sits behind the story. The Q2 filing attributed $313 million of remaining performance obligations to CoreWeave, net of $22 million of warrant value (3 August 2026). The selloff has not changed that contracted figure.
• Analyst targets sit far above the shares. Citizens reiterated $21 on 14 September 2026. B. Riley's target is $24, Lake Street's $21 and Oppenheimer's $25, all set after the Q2 report. The close of $9.91 is below every one.
• Price fell with no company news. The 22.26% drop on 14 October 2026 came without a Backblaze release, and the shares rose 1.9% on 15 October 2026. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) read 24.0 on 15 October 2026, a level that marks heavy selling.

Bear case

• The largest customer shows funding strain. Kalkine reported CoreWeave down about 13% on 14 October 2026 as its bond yields rose. CoreWeave's debt-financing costs also drove a 12.1% fall on 18 August 2026, according to Motley Fool coverage. Backblaze's contracted revenue depends on that customer's ability to keep spending.
• Cash spending comes before revenue. On 9 September 2026 Suidan forecast negative free cash flow for four to five quarters and gross-margin compression of 300-600 basis points through mid-2027. Q2 adjusted free cash flow was only $3.2 million (3 August 2026).
• Profit measures diverge. Q2 2026 net loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $5.09 million, against $12.8 million of adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).
• Share supply overhangs the price. CoreWeave's warrants over 4,194,876 Class A shares at $7.60 were registered for resale on 3 August 2026, and 0.00% convertible notes due 15 August 2031 carry a conversion price of about $21.94. No Form 4 or Schedule 13G filing showing a CoreWeave sale has been found.
• The older business drags. Computer Backup revenue fell 2% to $16.1 million in Q2 2026 (company results, 3 August 2026).

Price setup

Adjusted daily closes trace a steep slide: $14.36 on 2 October 2026, $13.80 on 6 October 2026 (heygotrade), $12.51 on 13 October 2026, $9.73 on 14 October 2026 and $9.91 on 15 October 2026. The shares are 24.7% lower over three months and 51.5% below the 52-week high of $20.43. The 19 August 2026 close of $16.88 is the nearest prior high above the current price.

The next level below is $7.60, the strike price of CoreWeave's warrants. The shares are about 30% above it. The RSI of 24.0 shows the decline is stretched, but the 14 October 2026 close stands only one session from an unexplained drop.

Crowding evidence points to forced selling more than heavy buying. No insider sales appear in SEC filings over the last 30 days.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~3 November 2026, est.: Q3 2026 results. Third-party calendars range from 2 November 2026 (Yahoo Finance) to 5 November 2026 (StockAnalysis). Revenue against the $44.4 million guidance floor is the first test.
• Any CoreWeave financing news. A CoreWeave debt raise or contract update would bear directly on the $313 million of contracted obligations.

Elapsed catalysts

• ~20 October 2026, est.: Q3 results date notice. Backblaze announced its Q3 2025 date on 17 October 2025 for a 6 November 2025 report. No Q3 2026 date is confirmed. (passed 4d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if CoreWeave cuts, delays or renegotiates its commitment, or if Q3 2026 revenue lands below the $44.4 million guidance floor. B2 Cloud Storage growth below the 40% target would also weaken it. A daily close below $7.60, the strike price of CoreWeave's warrants, would end the case on price.

The rating moves back up if the Q3 report confirms revenue within guidance and the CoreWeave obligations are intact. Management comment on CoreWeave's financing would also carry weight.

What it trades with

Backblaze traded in step with CoreWeave on 14 October 2026, according to Kalkine's report that both fell sharply that day. The two share a customer and supplier link and a common sensitivity to long-term interest rates, which Motley Fool tied to CoreWeave's 18 August 2026 drop. Other AI infrastructure names fell the same session, per Global Banking & Finance.