BRUN · Boost Run
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $12.35
Updated ·
Price against the kill line
55.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $12.35, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are down 75.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $12.35, the 50-day moving average as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again; or Boost Run announcing that the Georgia project went live before 2027 alongside financing for its 2027 hardware plan without new shares.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 39.9
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +491.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 95.5
- Operating margin (%)
- −42.8
All filed numbers
What Boost Run reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| filed | 39.9 | +491.7 | 95.5 | −42.8 |
| filed | 31.1 | +269.7 | 94.5 | −41.4 |
| filed | 6.7 | — | 82.7 | −201.9 |
| filed | 8.4 | — | 93.6 | 35.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −23.9 |
| Net income ($M) | −14.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) | Not available |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 157 |
| Debt ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 12 November 2026; non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 6.3 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 19.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 42.8 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 171 |
| Market value ($M) at the 13 November 2026 close, filed figures to 1 June 2026 | 0.0 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 13 November 2026): 685626500.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.8 days of average trading to cover, +37.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $11.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $11.0M |
The thesis
Boost Run's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The contract book is large, but third-quarter 2026 revenue missed estimates, a major Georgia project slipped to 2027, and the 2027 hardware plan needs far more capital than the company holds. The end-November 2026 deployment milestone and the fourth-quarter report test whether delivery and financing catch up.
Boost Run rents NVIDIA graphics-processor (GPU) computing capacity to AI customers from leased US data-center space. It reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $39.9 million on 12 November 2026, up from $6.7 million a year earlier, according to its 8-K. GuruFocus put the analyst estimate at $53.40 million. On the 12 November 2026 call, management said the Georgia project, worth about $13 million of monthly recurring revenue, moved from the third quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027.
The shares closed at $5.92 on 12 November 2026, the day of the report, down from $7.38 the session before and 85.9% below the $42.00 intraday high of 3 June 2026. At that price the market is pricing deep doubt that the company can fund and deliver its $2.7 billion contract book. The rating is Low because neither the delays nor the financing question can be settled before the first-quarter 2027 deployments.
Bullish and bearish views on Boost Run Inc.
The bull case on Boost Run Inc. (BRUN), in brief: contracted revenue keeps climbing. The bear case: third-quarter revenue missed by a wide margin.
Bull case
- Contracted revenue keeps climbing. Total contract value reached $2.7 billion at the third-quarter report, up $800 million from the previous quarter, according to the 12 November 2026 release. The company says all of it is live, being deployed or contracted for 2027 deployment.
- Revenue is scaling quarter to quarter. Third-quarter revenue of $39.9 million rose from $31.1 million in the second quarter of 2026, according to company filings. The loss of $0.17 per share matched the consensus estimate, MarketBeat reported on 12 November 2026.
- Management points to a much larger run rate. On the 12 November 2026 call, management said the fully deployed contract book could produce about $750 million of annual recurring revenue. It expects about 26% of total contract value to be live by the end of November 2026.
- Customers prepay part of the build. Management cited about $482 million of customer prepayments due on deployment and more than $600 million of project financing secured year to date on the 12 November 2026 call. The chief executive said prepayments cover about 38% of capital spending on upcoming projects.
- Cash generation was positive in the quarter. The 12 November 2026 release reported $65.6 million of operating cash flow for the third quarter and $157 million of unrestricted cash at 30 September 2026.
Bear case
- Third-quarter revenue missed by a wide margin. Revenue of $39.9 million fell short of the $53.40 million estimate GuruFocus cited on 12 November 2026. Management said that without the Georgia delay, the exit annual run rate would have been about $435 million by year-end 2026.
- Deployment timing keeps slipping. The Georgia project of more than 5,000 GPUs moved to the first quarter of 2027 after a city council process, management said on 12 November 2026. Two other projects slipped one to two weeks because of weather-related power activation delays in Illinois.
- The 2027 hardware plan dwarfs the balance sheet. Management described $4–5 billion of planned hardware procurement for 2027 on the 12 November 2026 call, against $157 million of unrestricted cash at 30 September 2026. Third-quarter GPU finance-lease principal payments were $109.8 million.
- The company is still losing money. The net loss was $14.1 million, or $0.17 per share, in the third quarter of 2026, according to the call transcript.
- A director sold into the rally and the decline. SEC Form 4 filings show director Sean Goodrich exercised options on 1,101,986 shares at $11.50 on 19 August 2026. He sold 198,200 shares at $20.15 on 27 August 2026 and 500,000 shares at $14.00 on 14 September 2026.
- The analyst target came down. BTIG kept its Buy rating but lowered its target to $25 on 12 November 2026, MarketBeat reported. MarketBeat had reported BTIG reiterating a $45 target on 14 August 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $5.92 on 12 November 2026, after $7.38 on 11 November 2026. Adjusted daily closes show a 74.2% decline over three months, from $22.93 on 14 August 2026. The last close sits far below the 50-day moving average of $12.13 and the 200-day moving average of $17.78, both as of 12 November 2026.
The 52-week closing low is $5.56 on 5 November 2026, and the 52-week high is $42.00 intraday on 3 June 2026. The shares rebounded from that low to $7.38 over four sessions, then gave most of it back on the results. A close beneath $5.56 would mark a new closing low and extend the decline. A sustained recovery toward the 50-day average would show the market treating the Georgia delay as a timing issue.
Catalysts ahead
- ~30 November 2026 (est.): Management's target of about 26% of the $2.7 billion contract value live by the end of November 2026. Hitting the milestone on time would show the deployment delays are confined to the Georgia project; another slip would extend them into 2027.
- ~15 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. It shows whether revenue grew significantly in the fourth quarter as management said, and how the 2027 hardware plan is being financed.
What would change the view
A daily close above $12.35, the 50-day moving average as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again; or Boost Run announcing that the Georgia project went live before 2027 alongside financing for its 2027 hardware plan without new shares.
What it trades with
The shares fell with the October 2026 sell-off in AI, semiconductor and GPU-cloud stocks. Tickeron tied an 11.81% drop to $8.89 on 16 October 2026 to a risk-off session across the Nasdaq and chip stocks. That makes the stock a high-volatility member of the GPU-cloud group, exposed to the group's swings in sentiment as well as to its own deployment schedule. Its supply chain runs through NVIDIA hardware and a $1.44 billion purchase agreement with Dell Technologies, announced 22 April 2026. Shifts in AI-infrastructure spending and in credit terms for GPU-backed financing are likely to show up in the shares faster than in reported revenue.
Notes
- Boost Run listed on Nasdaq through a merger with the special-purpose acquisition company Willow Lane Acquisition Corp.; its trading history as BRUN is short.
- The company redeemed all outstanding public and private warrants in August 2026, according to its third-quarter 2026 release.
- Management reports no parent-level bank or bond debt, but GPUs are financed through finance leases and project-level debt that carry fixed payments.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $39.9 million, up from $6.7 million a year earlier; operating cash flow was $65.6 million. Boost Run 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- Total contract value reached $2.7 billion, up $800 million from the previous quarter. Boost Run 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue of $39.9 million missed the $53.40 million analyst estimate. GuruFocus, 12 November 2026 · as of
- A Georgia project worth about $13 million of monthly recurring revenue was pushed from the third quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027. Boost Run third-quarter 2026 earnings call, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Management plans $4–5 billion of hardware procurement for 2027; unrestricted cash was $157 million at quarter-end. Boost Run third-quarter 2026 earnings call, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Net loss was $14.1 million, or $0.17 per share, in the third quarter of 2026. Boost Run third-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript · as of
- Director Sean Goodrich sold 500,000 shares at $14.00 in an open-market sale. SEC Form 4 filed 16 September 2026 · as of
- BTIG kept a Buy rating and lowered its price target to $25. MarketBeat report of BTIG analyst action, 12 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Boost Run Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Earnings call transcript: Boost Run Q3 2026 revenue jumps 496% as shares sink · investing.com ·
- Boost Run Inc Reports Q3 2026 Revenue of $39.9 Million, Misses Analyst Estimates of $53.40 Million · gurufocus.com
- Boost Run (NASDAQ:BRUN) Hits New 52-Week Low on Analyst Downgrade · marketbeat.com ·
- BTIG Research Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Boost Run (NASDAQ:BRUN) Stock Price · marketbeat.com ·
- Boost Run (BRUN) Shares Slide -51% in 30 Days: What's Behind the Move · tickeron.com
- Boost Run (BRUN) Stock Forecast & Price Target · marketbeat.com
- Finviz
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