LUNR · Intuitive Machines, Inc.

The thesis

Intuitive Machines has a $1.8 billion backlog and a run of satellite awards, but the shares closed at $10.45 on 22 October 2026, 77.1% below the 52-week high of $45.70, and the call stays cautious. The third-quarter report, expected around 4 November 2026, settles whether revenue is catching up to the $900 million–$1.0 billion fiscal 2026 guidance.

The company reported second-quarter revenue of $206.168 million on 13 August 2026 against Benzinga's cited consensus of $220.755 million, and it reaffirmed full-year guidance. The narrative is maturing: the awards of 17 August 2026, 18 August 2026 and 1 September 2026 and the 15 September 2026 SiriusXM satellite handover are well known, and the shares have kept falling since. The adjusted close was $13.19 on 9 October 2026 and $10.45 on 22 October 2026, and the three-month price change is -21.5%.

New since the prior note: Macquarie initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $25 target on 16 October 2026, and the company appointed Dr. Christopher Scolese to its board on 22 October 2026. Neither has lifted the shares. A sector rebound on 21 October 2026, after SpaceX's third-quarter results, took the shares to about $11.17 intraday (Benzinga), and the 22 October 2026 close was lower.

Bullish and bearish views on Intuitive Machines, Inc.

The bull case on Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR), in brief: Backlog gives revenue a test. The bear case: Revenue missed despite the backlog.

Bull case

• Backlog gives revenue a test. The company reported $1.8 billion of backlog at 30 June 2026 and reaffirmed fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million–$1.0 billion on 13 August 2026. Benzinga's 13 August 2026 coverage described second-quarter revenue as having quadrupled from a year earlier.
• Awards keep arriving. On 17 August 2026 the company said it was selected to begin work on a multi-satellite communications program with an anticipated value of more than $600 million. On 18 August 2026 it said NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory chose its IM-300 platform for the EAGLE-VSWIR Earth observation mission, targeted for a 2028 launch.
• Delivery is demonstrated. The company's 15 September 2026 release says SXM-11 completed in-orbit testing and was handed over to SiriusXM. A 1 September 2026 order for two IM-300 platforms came with the customer and terms undisclosed.
• Analyst targets sit far above the price. Macquarie initiated at Outperform with a $25 target on 16 October 2026. Stifel upgraded to Buy with a $26 target on 14 August 2026, and Cantor Fitzgerald kept Overweight with a $32 target, B. Riley kept Buy with a $43 target, and Canaccord Genuity kept Buy with a $39 target.

Bear case

• Revenue missed despite the backlog. Second-quarter revenue of $206.168 million fell short of Benzinga's cited consensus of $220.755 million. Benzinga's 13 August 2026 coverage tied the miss to higher IM-4 mission costs and contract timing.
• New shares can keep arriving. The company opened a $500 million at-the-market stock-sale program on 3 June 2026 through ten institutions. It reported $367.4 million of cash and equivalents at 30 June 2026 and a second-quarter loss of $0.29 per share.
• A major holder has a sale plan. Ghaffarian Enterprises adopted a Rule 10b5-1 plan on 2 July 2026 covering up to 1,935,568 shares, disclosed in a Schedule 13D/A filed 7 July 2026.
• Wall Street is split. B. of A. Securities kept Underperform and raised its target to $13 on 31 August 2026, above the 22 October 2026 close of $10.45.
• The space sector is under pressure. Benzinga headlines on 16 October 2026 and 17 October 2026 cited Rocket Lab delays and a $57 billion drop in Rocket Lab's market value, and coverage on 20 October 2026 described space shares as only coasting through SpaceX's third-quarter report.
• Short interest was heavy. Coverage in July 2026 reported short interest of 37.84 million shares, or 28.85% of the public float.

Price setup

The adjusted daily close was $10.45 on 22 October 2026, down from $13.19 on 9 October 2026. That is 77.1% below the 52-week high of $45.70 and 34% above nothing nearer than the 52-week low of $7.78 set earlier in the year. The 14-day relative strength index, a momentum gauge where readings under 30 are usually described as oversold, stood at 22.1.

A one-day sector rebound on 21 October 2026 did not hold into the next close. The shares have given back the gains that followed the August awards. No close back above the $12 to $13 range of early October has occurred.

Crowding evidence is mixed. Retail and short-seller attention is high, short interest was 28.85% of the float in July, and the at-the-market program can add supply into any rally. The earnings date is about two weeks away.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• Later: the IM-3 launch window in the first quarter of 2027 is the next lunar mission event.

Elapsed catalysts

• ~27 October 2026, est. FINRA publishes short interest for the 15 October 2026 settlement date. It shows whether short positions rose or fell during the October decline. (passed 10d ago)
• ~4 November 2026, est. Third-quarter 2026 results. The company has not confirmed the date; a third-party calendar lists 8:30 am ET on 4 November 2026. The report tests backlog conversion, the guidance range and any update on shares sold under the at-the-market program. (passed 2d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if the third-quarter report cuts or withdraws the $900 million–$1.0 billion fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, or if backlog falls without replacement awards. A daily close below $9.00 would also end it by putting the $7.78 52-week low within reach. The $12 weekly-close level used in the prior note has already been passed.

The cautious view improves if third-quarter revenue meets guidance pace and the shares close back above the early-October range of $12 to $13. Evidence of heavy share issuance in the 10-Q would push the other way.

What it trades with

Intuitive Machines trades with other listed space companies. On 21 October 2026 it rose with Redwire and Planet Labs after SpaceX's third-quarter results, per 24/7 Wall St., and Rocket Lab's slide in the prior week coincided with its own decline. A move in SpaceX shares (NASDAQ: SPCX) or Rocket Lab is the nearest outside influence before the 4 November 2026 report.