MYRG · MYR Group, Inc.

The thesis

MYR Group's record $3.16 billion backlog keeps a recovery case open for the electrical contractor, but the shares have fallen through the level the previous note treated as the floor, and the third-quarter report decides whether orders held. The adjusted close was $266.64 on 27 October 2026, 46.8% below the $501.13 52-week high. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI, a 0–100 momentum gauge) was 23.0, a reading usually described as oversold.

The company reported backlog of $3.16 billion at 30 June 2026, up 19.6% year over year, in its 29 July 2026 results. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $1.08 billion, up 20.1%, with an operating margin of 6.3%. The shares have still lost 19.4% over three months, so the market is not paying for those numbers.

MYR Group announced it would release third-quarter results after the market close on 28 October 2026, with a call at 8 a.m. Mountain Time on 29 October 2026, according to the ScanX results calendar. The AJ Bell data page lists 29 October 2026 for the release and 30 October 2026 for the call, so the dates should be checked against the company's investor page. The $270 weekly-close level in the previous note was breached on the 27 October 2026 daily close; the weekly test falls on the 30 October 2026 close.

Bullish and bearish views on MYR Group, Inc.

The bull case on MYR Group, Inc. (MYRG), in brief: Backlog is at a record. The bear case: The price keeps falling.

Bull case

• Backlog is at a record. The 29 July 2026 release reported $3.16 billion at 30 June 2026, up 19.6% year over year. A third-quarter figure at or above that level would show demand held through the share-price decline.
• Revenue and margin grew together. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $1.08 billion, up 20.1% year over year, with an operating margin of 6.3% against 4.4% a year earlier (company results, 29 July 2026).
• Two acquisitions add a full quarter. Valley Electric (about $328 million) and Comet Electric closed 1 July 2026. Third quarter is the first period with a full contribution from each.
• Financing capacity expanded. The credit agreement signed 8 September 2026 replaced a $490 million revolver with a $690 million one, per the 8-K filed 10 September 2026. Listed uses include refinancing, working capital, capital expenditure and acquisitions.
• Brokers still rate the shares positively. Jefferies upgraded to Buy on 6 October 2026 with a $370 target. Stifel kept Buy on 8 October 2026 with a $393 target (Benzinga analyst ratings).

Bear case

• The price keeps falling. The close was $297.92 on 1 October 2026, $291.17 on 14 October 2026 and $266.64 on 27 October 2026. The early-October rebound has faded entirely.
• Targets keep falling. Stifel's target went from $445 (5 August 2026) to $393 (8 October 2026). Goldman Sachs cut from $469 to $422 on 13 August 2026. Jefferies' $370 target compares with $449 under its earlier Hold rating in July.
• Insiders sold into the rally. Form 4 filings showed open-market sales at $441–$460 in early June 2026, with no disclosed purchases through 5 September 2026.
• Integration risk shows up in margins first. A sequential fall in commercial and industrial margin in the third quarter would weaken the acquisition case. Oppenheimer flagged transmission and distribution margin pressure in June and August.
• Datacenter exposure is small. Management said in Q1 2026 commentary that datacenter work was about 6% of annual revenue, so the AI-power label covers a minority of the business.

Price setup

The adjusted close was $266.64 on 27 October 2026, with RSI at 23.0, down from 47.8 on 14 October 2026 and 55.1 on 1 October 2026. The shares are 46.8% below the 52-week high and 19.4% lower over three months, according to the split- and dividend-adjusted daily series.

The narrative is maturing into a show-me story: the AI-power theme is well known, the price has already reset, and the most recent analyst actions were target cuts. The decline into the report is steep and fast, which means the result will be judged against lowered expectations rather than the August ones.

Published analyst targets disperse widely across aggregators. Investing.com shows a $295 to $564 range from an undated snapshot, and Valueinvesting.io shows $298 to $592 from a different date. The lowest published targets sit above the 27 October 2026 close, and no consensus anchors the shares.

Catalysts, next 30 days

No upcoming dated catalysts on file — the dated entries below have passed.

Elapsed catalysts

• 28 October 2026, after the close: Third-quarter 2026 results, per the ScanX results calendar. The AJ Bell page lists 29 October 2026, so the exact date is not confirmed by a company release seen here. (passed 8d ago)
• 29 October 2026, 8 a.m. Mountain Time: Earnings call and webcast. Management's comments on backlog, bookings, transmission and distribution margin and acquisition costs are the items that matter. (passed 8d ago)
• 30 October 2026: Weekly close, which tests the $270 level from the previous note. (passed 7d ago)
• ~28 October 2026 to ~5 November 2026, est.: Hyperscaler (very large cloud company) third-quarter capex updates from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. A cut to 2027 datacenter spending plans would be an early read on contractor bookings. (passed 1d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if third-quarter backlog falls below the $3.16 billion reported at 30 June 2026, or if the transmission and distribution margin drops below the second quarter's level. A hyperscaler guiding 2027 capex lower would also weaken it. Management signalling that acquired businesses are diluting margin would be a further break.

On price, a daily close below $240 would extend the decline well past the $266.64 close of 27 October 2026 and show sellers still in control after the results. A third-quarter backlog at a new record with a held or higher margin would instead support the recovery case. The shares would then need to close back above the $270 level from the previous note.

What it trades with

MYR Group trades with electrical contractors and grid-equipment names that depend on utility and datacenter spending. Hyperscaler capex headlines move the group together, even though datacenter work was about 6% of annual revenue per Q1 2026 management commentary. The Jefferies and Stifel actions in October show the sell-side treats the shares as a utility-spending and AI-power hybrid.