ORIC · Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

The thesis

Oric Pharmaceuticals' enozertinib now has a defined late-stage path, but the shares have priced the October lung-cancer data as a disappointment: the adjusted close was $9.00 on 27 October 2026, against $11.59 on 14 October 2026. The next test is the third-quarter report, expected around 5 November 2026, which shows cash and any equity issuance.

On 23 October 2026 Oric reported first-line Phase 1b results in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with atypical mutations of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). The company's headline was an 84% confirmed systemic objective response rate and a 70% confirmed intracranial response rate. It also said it plans a global Phase 3 trial, Redwood-1, in the first half of 2027.

The narrative is maturing: the data are out, and the newest items are sell-side target resets rather than new clinical news. Wedbush kept Outperform but lowered its target to $14 on 27 October 2026. Stifel kept Buy and raised its target to $18 on 26 October 2026. Targets of $26 from Leerink Partners and JPMorgan, set in early October, are now far above the $9.00 close.

Bullish and bearish views on Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

The bull case on Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ORIC), in brief: A registrational path is now stated. The bear case: Brain response is below the 2025 mark.

Bull case

• A registrational path is now stated. Oric said on 23 October 2026 that Redwood-1 will start in the first half of 2027 after End-of-Phase 1 discussions with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). A summary of the presentation by Panabee describes about 360 patients with atypical mutations, a physician's choice of osimertinib or afatinib as control, and dual primary endpoints of response rate and progression-free survival.
• Response rates held near the 2025 mark. The 4 December 2025 release reported an 80% response rate in 10 first-line patients. Oric's 23 October 2026 headline reported 84% confirmed systemic response, and secondary summaries cite 80% by blinded independent central review.
• Tolerability looks manageable. A summary of the presentation reports Grade 3 treatment-related adverse events in 23% of patients and no treatment discontinuations linked to adverse events. Panabee flags that its own summaries may contain numerical errors, so the company's 8-K is the check.
• Analysts remain positive after the data. Stifel raised its target to $18 on 26 October 2026. Wedbush kept Outperform on 27 October 2026 even as it lowered its target to $14.
• Funding runs well past the next trial start. Oric reported $387.6 million in cash, equivalents and investments at 30 June 2026, with runway guided into the second half of 2028 (Q2 release, 3 August 2026).

Bear case

• Brain response is below the 2025 mark. The 4 December 2025 release reported a 100% intracranial response in the early cohort. The 23 October 2026 headline is a 70% confirmed intracranial response, and a secondary summary cites 67% by independent review.
• Differentiation is unproven. One report puts the larger analysis at 26 patients on 80 mg once daily. Redwood-1 is the controlled test against osimertinib or afatinib, and it does not start until the first half of 2027.
• Price targets are being reset lower. Wedbush lowered its target to $14 on 27 October 2026. Leerink Partners and JPMorgan targets of $26 (set 5 October 2026 and 14 October 2026) sit nearly three times the $9.00 close.
• Equity funding continues. The Q2 release on 3 August 2026 disclosed $59.9 million raised through the at-the-market equity program. A weaker share price makes further issuance more dilutive.
• Insider selling came at higher prices. Chief Financial Officer Dominic Piscitelli sold 13,400 shares at a weighted average of $13.5267 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 26 May 2026, according to Investing.com's report of the Form 4 dated 28 September 2026.

Price setup

The adjusted daily close was $9.00 on 27 October 2026. That is 38.6% below the 52-week high of $14.65. The shares fell 22.7% over three months, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge where readings near 30 are considered oversold, was 33.4.

The shares closed at $11.59 on 14 October 2026 and have since broken below the $10.00 area that had held since August. The weekly-close condition in the previous note was $10.00, and the 27 October 2026 close sits under it.

No gap above a rising moving average exists, and crowding is not visible in the price. The observable pressure is financing: the at-the-market program is partly drawn, and the third-quarter report will show how much more was sold.

Catalysts, next 30 days

No upcoming dated catalysts on file — the dated entries below have passed.

Elapsed catalysts

• ~5 November 2026 (est.): Q3 2026 results. Updates cash against $387.6 million at 30 June 2026 and shows any at-the-market issuance beyond $59.9 million. (passed 1d ago)
• Rolling, through early November: sell-side target changes. Stifel ($18) and Wedbush ($14) have reset targets since 26 October 2026. Further cuts or holds from Leerink, JPMorgan, BTIG and H.C. Wainwright show whether the $26 and $27 targets stand. (passed 11d ago)
• Later: Redwood-1 start, first half of 2027. The trial start settles whether the FDA path described on 23 October 2026 holds. (passed 14d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if the Q3 report shows a shortened runway or a discounted equity raise, or if the full Phase 1b dataset shows lower response rates than the headline figures. Cuts to Outperform or Buy ratings from the covering firms would also weaken it. A daily close below $8.00, a round level under the $9.00 close of 27 October 2026, would extend the break that started below $10.00.

The case improves if the company's 8-K confirms the headline response rates with longer follow-up and if Redwood-1 timing holds. Neither is established yet.

What it trades with

Oric trades with small and mid-cap oncology biotech and the broader biotech index, which is sensitive to interest rates and financing conditions. Its price moves on its own clinical news, financing and analyst notes more than on large-cap health-care results. EGFR lung-cancer drug developers share read-across on response-rate and tolerability benchmarks, and the comparators osimertinib and afatinib set the bar for Redwood-1.