Watching
SOPH · SOPHiA GENETICS SA
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 9 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A weekly close below $6.84, the 4 August 2026 close on the day of the second-quarter report; separately, Q3 results that hold fiscal 2026 revenue guidance at $94–96 million or lower it, or report net dollar retention below 110%.
Open pick Medium conviction, opened at $8.03. Since then −7.7% against the S&P 500's +1.9% (−9.6 pp). Kill line at open: $6.84 (weekly close); graded by at the latest.
Catalyst (in 22 days)
How picks are graded →The thesis
SOPHiA GENETICS' cloud genomics platform is still growing faster than its own full-year guide, and on 8 October 2026 it added a second Myriad Genetics collaboration tied to AstraZeneca's prostate cancer work. The platform uses AI-based software to analyse DNA sequencing data for hospitals, labs and drugmakers. The third-quarter report, estimated for 3 November 2026, settles the case. It shows whether 117% net dollar retention holds and whether the $94–96 million 2026 revenue range rises a second time.
The price has not followed the news. The shares closed at $7.30 on 8 October 2026, the day of the Myriad announcement, below the $7.38 close of 6 October 2026 and 18.2% under the $8.92 52-week high. The narrative is maturing: the growth story is well known, the company's last financial release dates from 4 August 2026, and a named-partner announcement on 8 October 2026 brought no visible lift in the close.
Bullish and bearish views on SOPHiA GENETICS SA
The bull case on SOPHiA GENETICS SA (SOPH), in brief: New prostate cancer work with Myriad. The bear case: Gross margin slipped as volume grew.
Bull case
- New prostate cancer work with Myriad. SOPHiA GENETICS and Myriad Genetics announced on 8 October 2026 a collaboration on Myriad's prostate cancer genomic instability score (PrGIS), a test for homologous recombination deficiency (HRD), to support precision oncology work with AstraZeneca, per GlobeNewswire and GenomeWeb. SOPHiA will add the score to its Extended Homologous Recombination Solution for labs in its global network.
- Existing customers are spending more. The company's 4 August 2026 release reported second-quarter net dollar retention (spending by the same customers versus a year earlier) of 117%, up from 107%. Core genomics customers reached 542, against 490 a year earlier.
- Revenue ran ahead of the outlook. Second-quarter revenue was $23.310 million, up 27% reported and 25% in constant currency, per the 4 August 2026 release. Management lifted fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $94–96 million from $92–94 million.
- United States and liquid biopsy lead growth. The 4 August 2026 results, as summarised by StockTitan, put US revenue growth at 64% and liquid biopsy revenue growth at 80%.
- Pharma partners keep accumulating. AstraZeneca signed a multi-year global agreement, announced 4 August 2026, to develop two oncology companion diagnostics on the platform. Myriad's first collaboration with the company, announced in September 2025, covers a liquid biopsy companion diagnostic built on MSK-ACCESS powered with SOPHiA DDM.
- Analyst targets sit above the price. MarketBeat's 6 October 2026 summary shows a $10.00 average target from five firms, a range of $9 to $14, with three buy, one hold and one sell rating.
Bear case
- Gross margin slipped as volume grew. Second-quarter adjusted gross margin was 72.1%, against 74.4% a year earlier, with cloud costs, services mix and project ramps cited in the 4 August 2026 release. Reported gross margin was 64.6%.
- Losses remain large against revenue. The same release showed a $22.4 million net loss and an $8.8 million adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) loss. The company guides to a $29–32 million adjusted EBITDA loss for 2026.
- The share count grew in June. The company sold 12,104,900 shares at $4.75 for $57.5 million in gross proceeds, closing 19 June 2026, per its offering announcement. Quarter-end cash was $107.7 million on 30 June 2026.
- Partner news is not revenue yet. Neither the 4 August 2026 AstraZeneca agreement nor the 8 October 2026 Myriad collaboration came with a disclosed contract value, so their weight in 2026 revenue is unmeasured.
Price setup
The shares closed at $7.30 on 8 October 2026 in adjusted daily closes, 18.2% below the $8.92 52-week high and up 27.6% over three months. The 14-day relative strength index stood at 33.1 on the same date, near the 30 level usually read as oversold.
MarketBeat put the 50-day moving average at $7.78 and the 200-day moving average at $6.10 on 6 October 2026. The price now sits below the 50-day average and about 20% above the 200-day average. The $6.84 close of 4 August 2026, the day of the second-quarter report, marks where the summer re-rating began; a weekly close under it would return the shares to their pre-report level.
Crowding is visible on the supply side rather than in retail attention. The 5 October 2026 Form 144 notices from three insiders and the June offering at $4.75 both added stock into the rise.
Catalysts, next 30 days
- 20 October to 24 October 2026 — ASHG 2026 Annual Meeting, Montreal. The company shows its SOPHiA DDM platform at this genetics meeting; product news is possible, but it settles nothing about retention or guidance.
- 22 October 2026 — Global Precision Medicine Forum at ESMO, Madrid. A company-hosted oncology event where pharma-partner updates, including the AstraZeneca and Myriad work, may surface.
- ~3 November 2026, est. Third-quarter 2026 results on Form 6-K. The company had not confirmed the date as of 9 October 2026. The report shows whether net dollar retention holds near 117%, whether the $94–96 million revenue range rises again, and whether adjusted gross margin recovers from 72.1%.
What would change the view
The case breaks on the third-quarter report if management holds fiscal 2026 revenue guidance at $94–96 million or lowers it. Net dollar retention below 110%, or adjusted gross margin at or below the second quarter's 72.1%, would show the expansion story is fading. A new equity offering before the stated second-half 2027 target for positive adjusted EBITDA would also weaken it.
On price, a weekly close below $6.84, the 4 August 2026 report-day close, would erase the gain that followed the guidance raise. Further Form 144 notices from affiliates before the report would add to the supply already visible.
What it trades with
The shares trade as a small-capitalisation genomics software name whose moves turn on company-specific news: the 4 August 2026 report and the June offering set the range of the past three months. Partner news from AstraZeneca and Myriad Genetics bears directly on the companion-diagnostic part of the case. As a Swiss issuer reporting in US dollars, reported growth shifts with currency: second-quarter growth was 27% reported against 25% in constant currency.
Notes
- Foreign private issuer: reports on Form 6-K and 20-F rather than 10-Q/10-K, so interim disclosure is lighter than at US-domiciled diagnostics peers.
- Insiders of a foreign private issuer are exempt from Section 16 Form 4 reporting; Form 144 notices of proposed sales are the main visible record of affiliate selling.
- Swiss issuer reporting in US dollars: currency moves shift reported growth, as in Q2 2026 when reported growth was 27% against 25% in constant currency.
- Adjusted EBITDA excludes share-based compensation: the Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $8.8 million sat against a $22.4 million net loss.
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