TEM · Tempus AI, Inc.

The thesis

Tempus AI's reported numbers still support its growth case, but the shares have given back their late-September run and now trade almost exactly at the sell side's average target. The third-quarter report, expected around 4 November 2026, will show whether the $1.595–1.605 billion full-year revenue guide and the reimbursement story hold. Until then, the evidence points more toward the shares lagging the market than leading it.

The shares closed at $71.98 on 6 October 2026, according to adjusted daily closes, after closing at $83.55 on 5 October 2026. 24/7 Wall St. reported that the stock opened at $85.00 on 6 October 2026 and fell steadily through the session. It cited no news, earnings release or analyst downgrade. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs the same day, per Benzinga, so the drop came from the stock itself rather than the market.

The narrative is maturing. Coverage has widened to about 22 analysts since Goldman Sachs started coverage at Neutral on 21 September 2026. The 6 October 2026 reversal also came without any new company announcement. New events are still ahead, starting with 13 Tempus abstracts at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress, which opens on 23 October 2026.

Bullish and bearish views on Tempus AI, Inc.

The bull case on Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM), in brief: Revenue growth has been reported. The bear case: The rally reversed in a single session.

Bull case

• Revenue growth has been reported. On 30 July 2026 Tempus reported second-quarter revenue of $382.5 million, up 22% year over year, and raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.595–1.605 billion.
• Reimbursement could add material revenue. Morgan Stanley estimated that clearer reimbursement pricing could add $330–400 million of combined annual revenue across the xT and xF cancer tests, per a Yahoo Finance report dated 17 September 2026.
• The top analyst targets sit well above the price. Guggenheim kept a Buy rating and raised its target from $65 to $92 on 1 October 2026. TradingKey listed a high target of $100 among analysts rating the shares in the month to 5 October 2026.
• The Personalis deal gained support. Guggenheim's 1 October 2026 note cited positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 results from Merck and Moderna. Those two companies made up about 30% and 14% of Personalis' first-half 2026 revenue.
• The number of FDA-cleared AI products keeps growing. On 28 September 2026 the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave 510(k) clearance to ECG-MR, the company's fourth cleared electrocardiogram AI product.
• Data licensing now carries committed payments. The Recursion renewal signed on 21 September 2026 commits $42 million of payments over three years, running through November 2029.

Bear case

• The rally reversed in a single session. The shares fell from a $83.55 close on 5 October 2026 to a $71.98 close on 6 October 2026, per adjusted daily closes. 24/7 Wall St. found no news behind the drop.
• The price is back at the consensus target. MarketBeat listed a Hold consensus and a $71.05 average target on 1 October 2026, from 11 Buy, 9 Hold and 2 Sell ratings. Goldman Sachs started at Neutral with a $75 target on 21 September 2026, and UBS rates the shares Neutral with a $70 target from 9 September 2026.
• Insiders sold heavily during the rally. Chief executive Eric Lefkofsky sold 250,000 shares at $77.47 on 22 September 2026, per Form 4 data summarised by MarketBeat.
• The company still loses money. TradingKey cited trailing annual net losses of $245.03 million and a valuation near 9.7 times sales on 5 October 2026.
• The Recursion renewal lowered the headline value. The 21 September 2026 agreement replaced up to $84 million of potential fees over two years with $42 million committed over three years.
• High interest rates weigh on loss-making growth stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% on 15 September 2026 for the first time since 2007, and was near 5.25% on 1 October 2026, per Benzinga.

Price setup

The 6 October 2026 close of $71.98 is 30.3% below the 52-week high of $103.25 and 17.0% above the level of three months earlier, according to adjusted daily closes. That close is also below the $72.69 close of 21 August 2026, which wipes out the gains made since late August. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a 0–100 momentum gauge, fell to 52.0 on 6 October 2026 from 68.5 a session earlier.

The shares are still above their medium- and long-term averages. MarketBeat put the 50-day moving average at $61.72 and the 200-day moving average at $54.55 on 1 October 2026. The 50-day average is the nearest reference level below the last close.

Signs of a crowded trade showed up before the drop: about $82.9 million of insider sales over 90 days, and a one-day gain of 9.03% on 5 October 2026, per TradingKey. The quarterly report is about four weeks away. The Personalis merger will also bring new share issuance. It pays $16.25 of value per Personalis share, and Tempus may pay cash for up to 50% of Personalis shares, per the amended S-4 filed on 2 October 2026.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 23 October to 27 October 2026: ESMO Congress 2026 in Madrid, with 13 Tempus abstracts accepted, per a company announcement dated 1 October 2026. The presentations show whether new clinical data supports the oncology testing and data business.
• ~4 November 2026, est.: Third-quarter 2026 results. Tempus has not confirmed the date. Tempus reported the third quarter of 2025 on 4 November 2025, and TradingKey lists 10 November 2026. The report shows whether the $1.595–1.605 billion revenue guide holds and whether pricing gains for the xT and xF tests appear in the numbers.

Elapsed catalysts

• Date not announced: Personalis merger closing. The amended S-4 was filed on 2 October 2026. The closing determines when the residual disease monitoring business and the new shares arrive. (passed 11d ago)

What would change the view

Three business results would break the case. The first is a cut to full-year 2026 revenue guidance below $1.595 billion at the third-quarter report. The second is commentary showing flat average selling prices for the oncology tests, which would mean the reimbursement uplift Morgan Stanley sized is not arriving. The third is termination of the Personalis merger. On price, a daily close below $61.72, the 50-day moving average reported by MarketBeat on 1 October 2026, would mean the shares had given back the whole September rally.

The read would improve if third-quarter revenue beats the pace needed for the guide and the company raises the outlook again. A visible pricing contribution would also help. A move back above the $83.55 close of 5 October 2026 would show that buyers have absorbed the 6 October 2026 selling.

What it trades with

Tempus trades as a loss-making growth stock, so it reacts to long-term interest rates. Its 18 September 2026 pullback came as Treasury yields rose, per TipRanks. Its closest listed peers are diagnostics and genomics companies such as Natera, Grail, Illumina and Myriad Genetics. Personalis shares are linked to Tempus through the merger. Above a Tempus price of $48.42, however, each Personalis share receives a fixed $16.25 of value, which makes Personalis less sensitive to day-to-day moves in Tempus. The 6 October 2026 drop came while the S&P 500 set a record, which shows the stock can move sharply apart from the broad market.