FET · Forum Energy Technologies, Inc.

The thesis

Forum Energy Technologies' profit case held in the third quarter, but the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 until orders and guidance point to renewed growth. The fourth-quarter report, estimated for late February 2027, settles it. The shares closed at $67.60 on 5 November 2026, 25.6% under the 52-week high of $90.91, even though the company beat estimates and raised guidance on 29 October 2026.

The results passed the test set in the previous note. The company reported third-quarter revenue of $236.8 million against guidance of $225–245 million and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $36 million against guidance of $31–37 million. Adjusted earnings of $1.51 per share beat the $1.22 estimate, according to Benzinga.

The next test is harder. Earnings Whispers calculated on 30 October 2026 that the new guidance implies a fourth quarter roughly flat with the third at its midpoint. Drilling and Completions, the larger segment, booked fewer orders than revenue, with a book-to-bill ratio (orders divided by revenue) of 97%.

The narrative is maturing: the story is well known, and a third straight guidance raise on 29 October 2026 was followed by a fall in the shares through 5 November 2026. The view fails if the fourth-quarter report shows Drilling and Completions book-to-bill back above 100% with 2027 growth still guided by management, and the shares close back above $81.56, the close on 22 October 2026.

Bullish and bearish views on Forum Energy Technologies, Inc.

The bull case on Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET), in brief: Profit again beat expectations. The bear case: Drilling orders fell below revenue.

Bull case

• Profit again beat expectations. Adjusted EBITDA rose 14% from the second quarter to $36 million in the 29 October 2026 release, a 15.2% margin against 14.0%, per Earnings Whispers. Revenue was up 20.7% from a year earlier.
• Guidance rose for a third call. Full-year revenue guidance moved to $900–920 million from $870–910 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $123–129 million from $115–125 million, on 29 October 2026. Benzinga put the full-year revenue estimate at $887.6 million and the fourth-quarter estimate at $221.25 million, against guidance of $230–250 million.
• Debt is falling. Net debt fell $18 million in the third quarter to $97 million, and net debt reached 0.9 times EBITDA, down from 1.4 times in the first quarter, per Earnings Whispers on 30 October 2026. Third-quarter free cash flow of $30 million exceeded the $15–25 million guidance.
• Downhole orders are strong. Artificial Lift and Downhole booked $101.5 million of orders in the third quarter, a -to-bill. The segment gained from the Premiere Torque Rings purchase, which management said cost $33 million, roughly four times its EBITDA.
• Management expects more activity in 2027. On the 30 October 2026 call, management forecast mid- to high-single-digit growth in US land activity for 2027. It reported international revenue up 31% year to date and Middle East revenue up 32%.

Bear case

• Drilling orders fell below revenue. Drilling and Completions booked $142 million of orders in the third quarter, a -to-bill, below both the prior quarter and the year-ago period, per Earnings Whispers. Consolidated book-to-bill has slipped from 106% in the first quarter to 104% and then 103%.
• Fourth-quarter guidance shows no sequential growth. Fourth-quarter guidance of $230–250 million in revenue and $33–39 million in adjusted EBITDA centers near third-quarter levels. Management expects about $1 million of added EBITDA from the acquisition in that quarter, and it also flagged a one-time stock compensation charge of about $5 million.
• Third-quarter cash came partly from the fourth. Management said about $10 million of third-quarter free cash flow was pulled forward from the fourth quarter through working capital, per call highlights of 30 October 2026. The top of the full-year free-cash-flow range fell to $71 million from $77 million, while the floor rose to $66 million from $57 million.
• Costs squeezed the higher-margin segment. Artificial Lift and Downhole margin fell to 23.7% from 24.8% on freight and tariff costs, per Earnings Whispers. Net income under generally accepted accounting principles was $11 million, or $0.93 per diluted share, against $1.05 in the second quarter.
• Insiders sold into the rise. GuruFocus reported that general counsel John Ivascu sold 5,000 shares on 27 October 2026 at about $90.13, days before the report, and counted eight insider sales and no purchases over twelve months. The chief financial officer reported a sale of 20,068 shares on a Form 4 filed 21 August 2026.

Price setup

Adjusted daily closes show $84.61 on 9 October 2026, $81.56 on 22 October 2026 and $67.60 on 5 November 2026. The 52-week high is $90.91. The shares are down 13.8% over three months, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge, reads 38.3, down from 47.9 on 22 October 2026.

Crowding was visible before the fall. Earnings Whispers put the shares at $88.76 around the report, up 44.5% from $61.42 at the July report and about 41.7% above the 200-day moving average. Benzinga had listed FET among overbought energy stocks on 10 August 2026.

Earnings Whispers showed the shares down 8.25% on the report and 8.62% as of 2 November 2026. No company announcement found through 5 November 2026 explains the further decline after that date, so its cause is unestablished.

The 5 November 2026 close sits under the $70 invalidation level in the previous note, which was written on a weekly close. The next level is $61.42, which would erase the whole gain since the July report.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 6 November 2026: The weekly close shows whether the shares finished the week under the $70 invalidation level in the previous note.
• ~25 February 2027, est.: The fourth-quarter 2026 report falls outside the 30-day window, but the case turns on it. It tests the $230–250 million revenue guidance, the book-to-bill ratio and any first view of 2027. The company has not announced the date.

Elapsed catalysts

• Next 30 days: No company-scheduled financial event appears in company announcements found through 5 November 2026. (passed 1d ago)

What would change the view

The business case breaks if fourth-quarter revenue comes in under the guided $230 million floor, if full-year adjusted EBITDA misses the $123–129 million range, or if consolidated book-to-bill falls under 100%. A daily close below $61.42 would also end it, because the market would have removed the entire gain since the July report.

The cautious read would be wrong if Drilling and Completions book-to-bill returns above 100%, fourth-quarter free cash flow meets the $25–30 million guidance despite the pull-forward, and management's 2027 activity forecast holds. A close back above $81.56 would show the market accepting that.

A priced primary offering of common shares under the automatic mixed securities registration filed 28 August 2026 would weaken the debt-reduction argument.

What it trades with

Drilling and Completions produced $147 million of the $237 million third-quarter revenue, so the shares carry direct exposure to US and international drilling activity. Management's commentary on the 30 October 2026 call ties the outlook to rig activity, longer laterals and more completion stages, and sentiment on oilfield activity is likely to move the shares as much as company news. A fall in management's 2027 US land activity forecast would confirm that link.

Middle East revenue growth of 32% adds regional exposure, and management reported no meaningful order cancellations there so far on 30 October 2026. Data-center power generation came up on the call as an opportunity, with no figures attached. MarketBeat's forecast page, read on 6 November 2026, lists two covering analysts with opposite ratings, so coverage is thin.