GGAL · Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A.

The thesis

The October inflation report (~12 November 2026, est.) and the third-quarter results (~24 November 2026, est.) settle whether the pressure eases.

The ADR (a US-listed receipt for the Argentine shares) closed at $35.14 on 27 October 2026, 40.3% below its 52-week high of $58.86 and 31.7% lower over three months, per adjusted daily closes. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge where readings under 30 mark heavy selling, was 41.2, up from 28.7 on 14 October 2026. The selling has slowed. The shares have not recovered.

The narrative stays dead in its September recovery form: the shares sit below the $41.45 close of 21 August 2026 that framed that case, and INDEC, the national statistics agency, reported on 13 October 2026 that September inflation rose to 1.9% from 1.7% in August. Rio Times reported that Argentina's country risk touched 710 basis points intraday around 21 October 2026, the highest since 24 October 2025, before closing near 672. Conviction stays low.

Bullish and bearish views on Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A.

The bull case on Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (GGAL), in brief: Earnings improved in the second quarter. The bear case: Sovereign risk moved higher.

Bull case

• Earnings improved in the second quarter. Galicia's Q2 2026 release (25 August 2026) reported net income of ARS 258,322 million, up 12% year over year, with annualized return on equity of 11.3%.
• Lending and deposits grew. The same release reported private-sector loans of ARS 25,271,945 million at 30 June 2026, up 12% year over year, and deposits of ARS 29,034,793 million, up 6% from the prior quarter.
• Banks can rally sharply on relief days. Rio Times reported that Galicia gained 4.3% in one Buenos Aires session around 21 October 2026, ahead of Banco Macro (+2.0%) and Supervielle (+4.0%), even with the peso at its weakest close in a year.
• Inflation is still far below its earlier pace. INDEC reported September inflation of 1.9% month over month, 33.4% year over year, and core inflation of 1.7% on 13 October 2026. Analysts cited by iProUP expect 1.5% to 2% monthly through year-end.
• Analyst target sits well above the price. UBS kept a Neutral rating and cut its price target to $45 on 13 October 2026, above the $35.14 close of 27 October 2026.

Bear case

• Sovereign risk moved higher. Argentina's country risk closed at 646 basis points on 2 October 2026 after touching 655, per Rio Times. Rio Times then reported an intraday 710 around 21 October 2026 and a close near 672, after a 611 reading on 14 October 2026.
• Inflation turned up. INDEC's 1.9% September reading breaks the run of declines from July's 2.1%. The disinflation argument rested on that run.
• Credit quality is weak. The Q2 2026 release reported a group nonperforming-loan ratio of 10.6%, against 5.5% a year earlier, with coverage of 93.3%. Naranja X, the consumer-credit unit, had a ratio of 19.7%.
• The peso is weak. Rio Times reported the official wholesale rate near 1,526 per dollar around 21 October 2026, the weakest close in a year. A weaker peso cuts the dollar value of peso earnings.
• The price has a rebound. The close of $35.14 on 27 October 2026 is below the $36.07 close of 1 October 2026 and the $35.55 close of 14 October 2026.

Price setup

The adjusted close on 27 October 2026 was $35.14, against $35.55 on 14 October 2026 and $36.07 on 1 October 2026. The 52-week high is $58.86 and the 52-week low is $26.06.

The RSI of 41.2 compares with 28.7 on 14 October 2026 and 8.0 on 1 October 2026. Selling pressure has eased without a price recovery, so the shares have moved sideways in a narrow range of about $35 to $36 since 1 October 2026. The $33.00 close named in the previous note sits between the last close and the 52-week low.

Crowding evidence is thin. The shares sit well below the 52-week high, so there is no wide gap above a rising moving average, and no insider selling or share issuance into strength is on file. The one dated pressure point is the Q3 results report, about four weeks away.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~12 November 2026 (est.): INDEC October consumer price index. A reading at or below August's 1.7% would restore the disinflation argument; a reading above September's 1.9% would extend the break.
• ~24 November 2026 (est.): Galicia third-quarter 2026 results. GuruFocus lists 25 November 2026 with a call on 26 November 2026, and Earnings Whispers lists 24 November 2026 after the close; the company has not confirmed either date in the sources found. The report updates the 10.6% nonperforming-loan ratio and 93.3% coverage.
• Ongoing: JP Morgan Argentina country-risk readings. A sustained move back below 600 basis points would reverse the pressure that has driven the shares since September.

What would change the view

The cautious read breaks if country risk closes back below 600 basis points, October inflation prints at or below 1.7%, and the Q3 report shows the group nonperforming-loan ratio below 10.6% with coverage above 93.3%. Two of the three would move the rating up from low.

On price, a daily close below $33.00 would show selling continuing past the oversold reading seen on 14 October 2026. Evidence of a lasting relief rally would be a close above the $41.45 level of 21 August 2026.

What it trades with

The ADR moves with Argentina's sovereign spread, the peso and the local bank group (Banco Macro, Supervielle), not with US financials. Rio Times tied the 21 October 2026 bank gains to sovereign-credit sensitivity.

INDEC's monthly inflation report moves the whole Argentine bank group on the day.