GLXY · Galaxy Digital Inc.

The thesis

Galaxy Digital's third-quarter (Q3) 2026 report met the main test set in August: Helios data-center leasing revenue was $79 million against management's forecast of about $80 million a quarter. The shares still closed at $17.18 on 27 October 2026, so the open question is whether crypto prices and credit conditions let the business result show up in the share price.

Galaxy reported net income of $323 million for Q3, against an $85 million loss in Q2, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $455 million against negative $77 million (Galaxy 8-K, 27 October 2026). Trading and asset gains drive most of that swing. The release does not state a project-level margin for Helios, so the earlier condition of a margin above 90% is not yet confirmed. Data Centers segment adjusted EBITDA was $69 million on $79 million of segment adjusted gross profit.

The shares are 57.6% below their $40.55 52-week high in adjusted daily closes and 20.2% lower over three months. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is 33.5. The narrative is maturing: the move from bitcoin miner to CoreWeave landlord is well known, and analysts cut targets on 20 October 2026, 22 October 2026, 26 October 2026 and 27 October 2026 even as results beat. The 10-Q quarterly filing and bitcoin's direction decide the next leg of the case.

Bullish and bearish views on Galaxy Digital Inc.

The bull case on Galaxy Digital Inc. (GLXY), in brief: Helios rent now shows in reported results. The bear case: Profit came from trading, not rent.

Bull case

• Helios rent now shows in reported results. Q3 data-center leasing revenue was $79 million, the first full quarter with all 133 megawatts (MW) of Phase I delivered to CoreWeave (Galaxy 8-K, 27 October 2026). Segment adjusted EBITDA rose to $69 million from $11 million in Q2.
• Phase II is financed and under construction. The release says Helios I Phase II is fully financed, with data hall deliveries starting in Q2 2027. Galaxy had announced $3.507 billion of senior secured notes backed by $10.4 billion of minimum CoreWeave lease payments on 22 July 2026 (Yahoo Finance).
• The balance sheet is larger. Cash, stablecoins and US Treasuries stood at $4.9 billion on 30 September 2026, up from $2.5 billion at the end of Q2. Total equity was $3.0 billion (Galaxy 8-K, 27 October 2026).
• The company is buying back stock. The earlier $200 million repurchase program finished on 15 October 2026 after about 9.8 million Class A shares. The board approved a new $200 million authorization on 26 October 2026.
• Analysts remain positive on the rating. Citi upgraded Galaxy to Buy with a $28 target on 13 October 2026 and named it a top crypto pick on 20 October 2026. BTIG kept Buy with a $35 target on 27 October 2026, and Rosenblatt kept Buy with a $30 target on 26 October 2026.

Bear case

• Profit came from trading, not rent. The $323 million net income rests on adjusted gross profit of $569 million versus $43 million in Q2. Data-center leasing supplied $79 million of it, so the rest depends on markets that can reverse.
• Headline revenue missed. Benzinga reported Q3 sales of $8.688 billion against an estimate of $11.437 billion, while adjusted earnings per share of $0.83 beat an $0.11 estimate. Revenue includes trading pass-through, which makes it a poor guide to the business.
• Price targets keep falling. Piper Sandler lowered its target to $25 on 20 October 2026 and kept Overweight. Maxim cut to $36 on 22 October 2026, Rosenblatt to $30 on 26 October 2026 and BTIG to $35 on 27 October 2026. Goldman Sachs had cut to $24 on 7 October 2026.
• Spending is heavy. Data-center capital expenditure was $757 million in Q3 (Galaxy 8-K, 27 October 2026). Novogratz said on 27 October 2026 that credit markets are near "peak nervousness" as AI spending surges, which bears on the cost of financing later phases.
• Share supply persists. A $500 million at-the-market program filed 8 May 2026 allows Class A sales at management's discretion. Galaxy Group, controlled by CEO Michael Novogratz, registered 202.3 million shares for resale.

Price setup

The adjusted daily close on 27 October 2026 was $17.18. That is 57.6% below the $40.55 52-week high and below the $20 level that ended the earlier recovery case in the 2 October 2026 update. Benzinga reported on 19 October 2026 that the shares fell 30% in two weeks. The close on 14 October 2026 was $17.93.

The 14-day RSI of 33.5 is higher than the 6.7 reading on 14 October 2026, which shows selling pressure has eased from its extreme. The 52-week low cited in the previous note is $16.43 (StockAnalysis, 14 October 2026). A close beneath it would put the shares at a new low.

Crowding evidence is mixed. Attention is high, with at least eight headlines on the name between 19 October 2026 and 27 October 2026, and the earnings date has passed. The buyback and the larger cash balance cut against a supply overhang, while the at-the-market program and the resale registration remain in place.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~9 November 2026 (est.): Form 10-Q for Q3. The 8-K figures are unaudited and preliminary, and the filing will carry the final segment margins and any disclosure of at-the-market sales.
• Through 26 November 2026: Bitcoin price moves. The shares fell with bitcoin near $81,500 on 14 October 2026. Novogratz said on 24 October 2026 that he expects bitcoin to reach $100,000 in 2026.
• Through 26 November 2026: Further analyst target changes after the report. Four firms lowered targets between 20 October 2026 and 27 October 2026.
• Q2 2027: Helios Phase II data hall deliveries begin, which is the next operating milestone and sits outside the 30-day window.

What would change the view

The case breaks if Galaxy's 10-Q shows Helios leasing below the $79 million reported, a project margin at or below 90%, or a delay to the Q2 2027 Phase II start. It also breaks if the company discloses larger at-the-market share sales or if Galaxy Group sells under the resale registration while the shares are below $20.

A daily close below $16.40, under the $16.43 52-week low cited in the previous note, would show the market rejecting the results. A rebound above $20 on a weekly close would reopen the recovery case that the 2 October 2026 update closed.

What it trades with

Galaxy trades with bitcoin and with crypto-linked shares such as Coinbase and Robinhood. On 18 September 2026 crypto equities rose as bitcoin cleared $80,000, and on 14 October 2026 they fell together on hotter US core inflation of 2.6% against a 2.5% forecast. It also trades with CoreWeave and data-center credit sentiment, since CoreWeave is the sole Helios tenant. Higher Treasury yields have weighed on both groups; the 10-year yield was back above 5% on 18 September 2026.