HALO · Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.

The thesis

Halozyme's royalty stream grew 50% to $307.7 million in the second quarter. That growth, plus a 7 October 2026 Dutch patent win against Merck, carried the shares to a $124.37 close on 20 October 2026, a new 52-week high. The third-quarter report, expected about 2 November 2026, will show whether 2026 royalty guidance of $1.220–1.245 billion holds or rises. Three partner reports come first: argenx on 22 October 2026, then Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb on 29 October 2026.

Halozyme licenses ENHANZE, an enzyme that lets drugmakers turn intravenous drugs into under-the-skin (subcutaneous) injections. It collects royalties on partner sales. The case rests on that royalty stream compounding as more partner drugs switch format. The Dutch ruling adds a second support: Halozyme's MDASE patents held up against Merck's competing subcutaneous Keytruda.

The narrative is maturing: the case has been public since the 6 August 2026 guidance raise and the 7 October 2026 ruling, and the latest high came with no new company results, guidance or SEC filings since TD Cowen's target raise on 13 October 2026. Crowding is visible. The close sits above StockAnalysis's $108.78 average target (14 October 2026), the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) read 74.2 on 20 October 2026, and the chief executive has been selling under a scheduled plan.

Bullish and bearish views on Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.

The bull case on Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO), in brief: Royalties grew 50% in the quarter. The bear case: Darzalex growth slowed and missed forecasts.

Bull case

• Royalties grew 50% in the quarter. The 6 August 2026 release reported second-quarter royalty revenue of $307.7 million, up 50% year over year, within total revenue of $481.0 million. Second-quarter release
• Management raised every 2026 guidance line. The same release set 2026 royalty guidance at $1.220–1.245 billion, total revenue at $1.835–1.910 billion (from $1.710–1.810 billion) and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) at $8.65–9.00.
• Royalty sources beyond Darzalex are large. argenx's 6-K reported Vyvgart product sales of $1.5 billion for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 and $2.8 billion for the first half. Vyvgart Hytrulo, the subcutaneous form, carries the Halozyme royalty.
• The largest partner franchise is still growing. Genmab reported third-quarter 2026 Darzalex net sales of $4.24 billion on 13 October 2026, including the subcutaneous Darzalex Faspro. BioSpace put growth at 15% year over year.
• A European court upheld the MDASE patent. On 7 October 2026 The Hague patent court found that Merck's subsidiary MSD infringes European patent EP 2,797,622, rejected MSD's validity challenge and barred Keytruda SC in eight countries, per Halozyme, Fierce Pharma and JUVE Patent. A Munich court had granted a preliminary injunction in Germany on 4 December 2025.
• Partners keep widening the platform. argenx expanded its license on 6 October 2026 to two more ENHANZE immunology targets, per company news. The FDA approved Roche's Tecentriq Hybreza for stage III dMMR colon cancer on 8 October 2026, per Quiver Quant.
• Two analysts target $130. HC Wainwright raised its target to $130 from $115 on 8 October 2026, citing better odds of a Merck settlement. TD Cowen raised its target to $130 from $105 on 13 October 2026, per Benzinga.

Bear case

• Darzalex growth slowed and missed forecasts. Third-quarter sales of $4.24 billion compare with $4.21 billion in the second quarter and a $4.33 billion Zacks consensus published 12 October 2026. BioSpace's 15% growth figure follows 18.9% in the second quarter.
• The shares trade above most targets. The $124.37 close on 20 October 2026 is above StockAnalysis's $108.78 average of nine analysts and MarketBeat's $96.50 average (both 14 October 2026). JP Morgan holds a neutral rating with a $78 target, raised on 8 October 2026.
• Merck says the patent is invalid. A Merck spokesperson told Fierce Pharma the company "strongly disagree[s]" with the cross-border injunction, considers the patent invalid globally and is evaluating next steps. The Dutch relief depends on the continued validity of the national patents, and Merck's nullity action is pending at the German Federal Patent Court.
• MarketBeat counted 125,852 insider shares sold over 90 days as of 14 October 2026.
• New debt sits on the balance sheet. Halozyme's 8-K filed 22 September 2026 reported $1.5 billion of 1.50% convertible notes due 2033, with net proceeds of about $1,471.1 million. Part of the proceeds is for general purposes, which leaves room for an acquisition that changes the royalty profile.

Price setup

The shares closed at $124.37 on 20 October 2026, a new 52-week high and above the $122.50 close of 19 October 2026, in adjusted daily closes. They rose 53.8% over the three months to that date. The 14-day RSI of 74.2 sits above the 70 level that conventionally marks an overbought reading, up from 69.5 a session earlier.

The gap above trend is wide. MarketBeat put the 50-day moving average at $107.30 on 14 October 2026. The August trading range bottomed at $98.58. The convertible notes convert at about $139.84 per share, a level above the current price.

The rise has come with few company events since mid-month. Kalkine reported a 5.52% gain to $115.87 on 14 October 2026 with no company announcement, on a day the Nasdaq 100 fell 1% after a hotter-than-expected September consumer price index, per Benzinga.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 22 October 2026 — argenx third-quarter 2026 results. argenx confirmed the date on 15 October 2026. Vyvgart Hytrulo sales are the clearest read on royalty growth outside Darzalex.
• 29 October 2026 — Bristol Myers Squibb third-quarter 2026 results. Confirmed by the company on 18 September 2026. Opdivo Qvantig uptake is a newer royalty contributor.
• 29 October 2026 — Merck third-quarter 2026 results. Confirmed by the company on 1 October 2026. Comments on Keytruda SC in Europe show whether Merck pursues an appeal, a stay or a settlement.
• ~2 November 2026, est. Halozyme third-quarter 2026 report. No date confirmed yet; the 2025 report came on 3 November 2025, with the date announced on 21 October 2025. The report decides whether royalty guidance holds or rises and gives the first balance sheet after the convertible financing.

What would change the view

The case breaks on the royalty line. A cut to the $1.220–1.245 billion 2026 royalty guidance at the third-quarter report, or a narrowing toward the low end alongside a second slower Darzalex quarter, would show the compounding has stalled. A stay or reversal of the 7 October 2026 Dutch injunction, a German Federal Patent Court ruling against the patent, or an adverse ruling in the US New Jersey case would remove the litigation support.

On price, a weekly close below $98, under the $98.58 August low, would erase the gains from the guidance raise and the ruling. A guidance raise at the third-quarter report, or a Merck settlement with royalty terms, would strengthen the case.

What it trades with

The shares move on partner sales reports more than on biotech trial news: J&J and Genmab for Darzalex, argenx for Vyvgart, Bristol Myers Squibb for Opdivo Qvantig and Roche for Tecentriq Hybreza. Merck's litigation choices are a second, separate driver.

Halozyme sits in the precision biotech group with Moderna, Iovance, Maze Therapeutics and ADMA Biologics. A royalty business with guided earnings trades differently from peers waiting on single trial or approval outcomes. The 14 October 2026 session, when the shares rose 5.52% as the Nasdaq 100 fell 1%, fits that pattern.