MOV · Movado Group, Inc.

The thesis

Movado Group's margin recovery is in its reported results, but the shares have kept falling: the 27 October 2026 close of $31.08 is below the $33 level that the previous note said would end the re-rating case. The third-quarter fiscal 2027 report, expected around late November, decides whether the 55%–56% second-half gross-margin outlook holds.

The narrative is maturing: the margin gain became reported fact on 26 August 2026, and buying interest has faded since. The close is 20.9% below the 52-week high of $39.31 and 17.7% lower than three months earlier (split- and dividend-adjusted daily bars). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a 0–100 gauge of recent buying versus selling, reads 35.5, against 39.4 on 14 October 2026.

One item is new since the 15 October 2026 note. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry reported on 20 October 2026 that September Swiss watch exports to the United States rose 86% year over year, and total exports rose 11.7% to 2.23 billion Swiss francs (reported by bluewin and other Swiss outlets). The federation attributed most of the US jump to a weak comparison month, because US-bound shipments fell 56% in September 2025 after the 39% US tariff on Swiss goods took effect. That follows August's 19.4% US decline and removes the single-month worry, but the share price did not respond.

Conviction stays low. The earnings test is still about four weeks away, the price trend is against the case, and no company news has appeared since the 7 October 2026 agreement to sell 95% of the EBEL brand.

Bullish and bearish views on Movado Group, Inc.

The bull case on Movado Group, Inc. (MOV), in brief: Underlying margins improved without refunds. The bear case: Management guided margins lower.

Bull case

• Underlying margins improved without refunds. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 gross margin was 57.5% excluding duty refunds, against 54.1% a year earlier. Reported gross margin was 59.4% (company results, 26 August 2026).
• The operating figure includes a $3.2 million refund of tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
• The EBEL sale adds cash. Movado agreed on 7 October 2026 to sell a 95% interest in EBEL for $66.5 million to an investor group led by Montres Journe SA, with closing expected within a few months (company press release, reported by WatchCollecting Lifestyle).
• Buyback capacity remains. $44.6 million was left under the share repurchase authorization at 31 July 2026, with $74.7 million available under a $75 million revolving credit line (Form 10-Q).
• Swiss exports to the US turned up. Federation data showed September US-bound watch exports up 86% year over year on 20 October 2026, though against a depressed September 2025.
• One analyst target sits far above the price. Benzinga records BWS Financial analyst Hamed Khorsand raising his target to $45 on 1 September 2026, against the $31.08 close of 27 October 2026.

Bear case

• Management guided margins lower. On 26 August 2026 Movado projected second-half fiscal 2027 gross margin of 55%–56%, excluding further refunds, with mid-single-digit sales growth. The range sits below the 57.5% second-quarter margin excluding refunds.
• Annual guidance is gone. Movado said on 26 August 2026 it will comment on near-term trends instead of issuing annual guidance, so no full-year outlook anchors the valuation.
• US demand was weak in August. JCK reported on 17 September 2026 that August Swiss watch exports to the United States fell 19.4% year over year, while worldwide exports rose 9.1%. One recovered month does not settle the direction.
• The shares keep slipping despite the results. The close fell from $32.22 on 14 October 2026 to $31.08 on 27 October 2026, and the previous note's $34.96 pre-results weekly-close level is further away. Holders of the shares are not paying for the reported margin gain.
• Analyst coverage is thin and dated. Aggregator target averages in early September 2026 ranged from about $34.83 to $40.00, several built on notes dated 2024–2025.

Price setup

The shares closed at $31.08 on 27 October 2026 (adjusted daily bars). That is 20.9% below the $39.31 52-week high and below the $33 level from the previous note. An RSI of 35.5 sits near, not inside, the range below 30 that is usually read as oversold.

The nearest round-number level is $30, which is the invalidation level for this note. A close below it would put the shares at their lowest in the period covered by these bars' three-month window. The shares are far from stretched above any rising average, so crowding evidence is limited: coverage is thin, no insider selling or share issuance appears in recent filings, and the one news item in the past 30 days is a June headline calling the shares overbought.

Earnings sit inside the window. Movado reported its third quarter last year on 25 November 2025, and the fiscal 2027 date had not been announced as of 28 October 2026.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~25 November 2026, est.: Third-quarter fiscal 2027 results. Date unconfirmed; Movado typically announces its call about a week ahead. The report tests the 55%–56% second-half gross-margin outlook and mid-single-digit sales growth.
• ~18 November 2026, est.: Swiss watch export statistics for October. The federation usually publishes about three weeks after month-end; the figures show whether US-bound shipments keep recovering once the weak comparison fades.

Elapsed catalysts

• Within a few months of 7 October 2026: EBEL sale closing. Closing would bring $66.5 million of proceeds and remove the brand from reported results. (passed 30d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if second-half gross margin guidance falls below 55%–56% at the third-quarter report, or if third-quarter sales growth comes in below mid-single digits. Either result would show the August margin gain does not carry into the holiday quarter. A daily close below $30 would also end the case, as it would take the shares below the round-number level under the recent range.

The case strengthens if Movado reaffirms or raises the margin outlook and the shares regain the $33 level from the previous note. A weekly close above $34.96, the pre-results level, would show the market has accepted the improved earnings.

What it trades with

Movado's shares trade with US discretionary spending and with Swiss watch export data, the closest public read on category demand. US-bound Swiss exports fell 56% in September 2025 and rose 86% in September 2026, so the comparison is distorted by the 2025 tariff. Tariff policy, including Section 301 forced-labor duties on Swiss imports and refunds of IEEPA duties, moves Movado's margins directly. The Grinberg family's super-voting Class A stock means control of the company does not depend on outside holders.