Watching
MYGN · Myriad Genetics, Inc.
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 9 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A weekly close below $3.67, the level that capped the shares through September, which would erase the October gain; a second cut to FY2026 revenue guidance or another year-over-year fall in revenue per test in the third quarter would confirm it.
Not a pickResearch coverage at low conviction. A medium-or-higher call would open a pick on the scoreboard.
Catalyst (in 21 days)
How picks are graded →The thesis
Myriad Genetics shares still trade on one broker's $8 recovery call, and the company has not yet shown that falling revenue per test has bottomed. The odds favour the shares lagging the S&P 500 until it does. The third-quarter report settles it. The company had not scheduled it as of 9 October 2026; the third quarter of 2025 was reported on 3 November 2025, which puts the estimate around 2 November 2026.
The shares closed at $4.20 on 8 October 2026 on split- and dividend-adjusted daily closes, slightly below the $4.28 close on 6 October 2026. The one new item since the last update is a partnership. On 8 October 2026 Myriad and SOPHiA GENETICS announced a collaboration on Myriad's prostate genomic instability score (PrGIS), which is linked to work with AstraZeneca (GlobeNewswire release). No financial terms were disclosed. The narrative is maturing: the turnaround story is well known, and since the company reaffirmed $770–790 million of full-year 2026 revenue on 16 September 2026, only a broker note and a pipeline partnership have followed. Neither is an operating figure.
Bullish and bearish views on Myriad Genetics, Inc.
The bull case on Myriad Genetics, Inc. (MYGN), in brief: One broker now targets $8. The bear case: Most targets sit below the price.
Bull case
- One broker now targets $8. Craig-Hallum analyst John Wilkin kept a Buy rating on 2 October 2026 and raised his target from $4.00 to $8.00 (Benzinga). That is close to the 52-week high of $8.18. StockStory reported the shares rose 5% that afternoon.
- Revenue guidance held after the reset. On 16 September 2026 Myriad reaffirmed FY2026 revenue of $770–790 million, against a $776.79 million consensus cited by Benzinga. The range has not been cut again since the 30 July 2026 reduction.
- Hereditary-cancer volume is growing. The second-quarter release on 30 July 2026 reported hereditary-cancer test volume up 8% and Cancer Care Continuum volume up 6% year over year. Demand held up in those lines; the problem is pricing and reimbursement.
- The companion-diagnostic pipeline is widening. The 8 October 2026 release says MyChoice CDx, already a companion diagnostic in ovarian cancer, is being advanced for prostate cancer and will produce the PrGIS score. SOPHiA will build a decentralized version for its network of more than 1,000 institutions in over 75 countries. Myriad plans to present PrGIS research co-authored with AstraZeneca at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress, held 23 October to 27 October 2026 in Madrid.
- The MRD menu has broadened. Precise MRD, a minimal residual disease blood test, was extended to colorectal and renal cancers. The breast-cancer version was submitted to Medicare's MolDX program for coverage (30 July 2026 release).
Bear case
- Most targets sit below the price. A 25 September 2026 MarketBeat aggregation of seven brokers put the average 12-month target at $3.12, with a low of $2.00, before the Craig-Hallum raise. Simply Wall St lifted its fair-value estimate from $3.37 to $3.91 on 4 October 2026, still below the 8 October 2026 close of $4.20.
- Two brokers stay cautious. Piper Sandler downgraded the shares from Overweight to Underweight on 1 September 2026 and cut its target from $5.45 to $2.00 (Investing.com). UBS kept a Neutral rating on 9 September 2026 and lowered its target to $3.60 (Benzinga).
- Revenue per test is still falling. Second-quarter revenue was $190.7 million, down 11% year over year, and average revenue per test fell 9% (30 July 2026 release). Prenatal volume fell 9% to 144,000 tests; total volume slipped 1% to 379,000.
- No profitability outlook. Guidance for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), previously $37–49 million, has been suspended since 30 July 2026. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was -$16.9 million against $14.5 million a year earlier, with $115.2 million of cash at quarter end.
- The partnership carries no near-term revenue. The 8 October 2026 SOPHiA release disclosed no financial terms and no regulatory timeline for the prostate indication.
Price setup
The 8 October 2026 close of $4.20 is 48.7% below the 52-week high of $8.18 and 28.3% lower over three months on adjusted daily closes. StockStory dates the 52-week high to November 2025. The shares remain above $3.67, the level that capped them through September. A weekly close back under it would erase the October gain.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) read 59.6 on 8 October 2026, below the 70 line conventionally read as overbought. The shares did not extend the Craig-Hallum move after the SOPHiA announcement. Crowding shows up as sensitivity to single analyst notes and an earnings report about three and a half weeks out. At a low single-digit share price, one note moved the shares sharply on 1 September 2026 and again on 2 October 2026.
Catalysts, next 30 days
- 23 October to 27 October 2026 — ESMO Congress 2026, Madrid. Myriad plans to present PrGIS research co-authored with AstraZeneca (8 October 2026 release). This is scientific validation for the prostate companion-diagnostic indication, with no revenue attached.
- ~2 November 2026, est. Q3 2026 results and conference call. The company had not announced the date as of 9 October 2026; Q3 2025 was reported on 3 November 2025. The report tests the $770–790 million FY2026 revenue guide and shows whether revenue per test is still falling year over year. It is also the earliest realistic point for an adjusted EBITDA outlook to return.
- Undated — Medicare MolDX decision on Precise MRD in breast cancer. Coverage would turn the MRD menu into billable revenue.
What would change the view
The recovery case breaks if the third-quarter report shows revenue per test down year over year again, if FY2026 revenue guidance is cut a second time, or if a cash shortfall forces equity or convertible financing. Any of those would confirm that the $8 target is running ahead of the business.
The cautious read would be wrong if the third quarter shows revenue per test flat or higher year over year, Prenatal Health volume stabilising, and adjusted EBITDA guidance reinstated. A Medicare coverage decision for Precise MRD in breast cancer, or disclosed commercial terms for the prostate companion diagnostic, would add a second support. On price, a weekly close below $3.67, the September ceiling, would undo the October rally with no new company disclosure behind it.
What it trades with
Myriad trades with the medtech and diagnostics group: Natera (NTRA), Guardant-style MRD peers, GRAIL (GRAL), Illumina (ILMN) and Revvity (RVTY). The group has been heating up, with fresh attention in each weekly reading from late September to 9 October 2026. Myriad has lagged it, falling 28.3% over three months to 8 October 2026, so its moves are driven by company-specific pricing and guidance news more than by sector flows. Natera's third-quarter MRD volumes are the most direct read-across for Precise MRD. SOPHiA GENETICS (SOPH) is now a partner, and news on the PrGIS work may move both names. A cooling in the diagnostics group would remove the one tailwind the shares have.
Notes
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance has been suspended since 30 July 2026 (prior $37–49M); the company has no profitability outlook until it is reinstated.
- Law-firm securities investigation notices have circulated since 4 August 2026 over the FY26 guidance sequence; an investigation notice is not a filed complaint.
- The fiscal year matches the calendar year; third-quarter results have historically been reported in the first week of November.
- At a low single-digit share price, single analyst notes move the shares sharply, as on 1 September 2026 (Piper Sandler downgrade) and 2 October 2026 (Craig-Hallum target raise).
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