NU · Nu Holdings

The thesis

Nu Holdings shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The business keeps growing, but a rising late-stage delinquency ratio and the Brazil risk repricing that followed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's runoff win on 25 October 2026 are likely to weigh on the shares more than growth lifts them. The Investor Day in New York on 8 December 2026 is the next test of whether management can change that reading.

The third-quarter 2026 report, released on 12 November 2026, was strong on growth. Net income was a record $1.09 billion, up 31% from a year earlier on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis, and return on equity was 32%, according to the company's 6-K. Revenue under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) was $5.82 billion against a $5.684 billion estimate, Benzinga reported on 12 November 2026. The same report showed the 90-plus-day non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rising to 7.3% from 6.9% in the second quarter.

The price reflects a Brazil discount more than any doubt about growth. The shares closed at $11.83 on 12 November 2026, down 22.3% over three months and near the 52-week closing low of $11.60 set on 8 June 2026. For the shares to lead from here, investors would need to stop pricing NU as a proxy for Brazil, and the third-quarter credit numbers give them little reason to.

Bullish and bearish views on Nu Holdings Ltd.

The bull case on Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU), in brief: profit still compounding above 30%. The bear case: late-stage delinquency is rising.

Bull case

• Profit still compounding above 30%. Net income of $1.09 billion in the third quarter of 2026 rose 31% from a year earlier on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis, and return on equity held at 32%, according to the company's 12 November 2026 6-K.
• Efficiency guidance improved again. The company now expects a full-year 2026 efficiency ratio of 19%–19.5%, against a previous expectation of about 20%. The third-quarter ratio was 19.3%, compared with 20.3% a year earlier, per the 12 November 2026 release.
• Mexico and Colombia diversify away from Brazil. Mexico reached 16.6 million customers, up 27% from a year earlier, and added 870,000 in its first quarter operating as a bank. Colombia reached 6.1 million customers, up 62%, with credit up 80%, according to the 12 November 2026 release.
• Funding and credit still growing together. Deposits were $47.5 billion, up 19% from a year earlier, and the credit portfolio was $41.6 billion, up 33%, both on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis, per the 12 November 2026 6-K.
• Customer activity at a record in Brazil. The Brazilian activity rate reached a record 86.3% in the third quarter of 2026, and personal-loan originations hit a record 22.1 billion reais, per the company's release.

Bear case

• Late-stage delinquency is rising. The 90-plus-day NPL ratio rose to 7.3% in the third quarter of 2026 from 6.9% in the second quarter, per the 12 November 2026 6-K. Measured against interest-earning balances, it reached 12.1%, up from 11.6%.
• Risk-adjusted margin slipped on the reported basis. The risk-adjusted net interest margin fell to 12.1% from 12.4% in the second quarter. Excluding non-recurring items it rose to 12.7%, per the 12 November 2026 release, so the improvement depends on the adjustment.
• Brazil political repricing hit every local financial. After Lula's runoff win, the iShares MSCI Brazil exchange-traded fund (EWZ) fell 21.7% in the 26 October 2026 session, Benzinga reported. Nu is Brazil-heavy, with nearly 120 million of its 142.6 million customers there as of the third quarter of 2026.
• Return on equity edged down. Return on equity was 32% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 33% in the second quarter, per the company's release.
• New markets add cost. Nu US launched on 10 September 2026 and Nu Global on 15 October 2026. The company says their combined drag on the efficiency ratio stays within a commitment of up to 100 basis points in each of 2026 and 2027.

Price setup

NU closed at $11.83 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 50-day moving average of $13.81 and the 200-day moving average of $14.20, both as of 12 November 2026 on adjusted daily closes. Over three months the shares fell 22.3% from the 14 August 2026 close of $15.23.

The 52-week closing low is $11.60, set on 8 June 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $18.98, set on 29 January 2026, and the last close is 37.7% below it. Before the runoff, SEC Form 4 tax-withholding filings priced the shares at $13.29 on 23 October 2026, the last session before the vote. The gap between that price and the current close shows how much of the drop is the election.

The third-quarter results came out after the 12 November 2026 close, so the 12 November 2026 close does not yet reflect them. Recent insider activity is small and routine. Cristina Junqueira, chief executive of the US business, sold 25,000 shares at $15.01 on 5 October 2026 and 90,000 shares at an average of $14.79 on 24 August 2026 and 25 August 2026, both under a Rule 10b5-1 pre-arranged trading plan, per SEC Form 4 filings. Chief executive David Vélez received a grant of 13,577,733 shares on 15 October 2026.

Catalysts ahead

• 8 December 2026: Nu Holdings Investor Day in New York. Medium-term targets for credit quality, return on equity and the US and Mexico businesses will show whether management can separate the shares from the Brazil discount.
• ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. This report shows whether the 90-plus-day NPL ratio keeps rising from 7.3% or turns down, the credit measure the lag view rests on.

What would change the view

A daily close above $13.30, recovering the $13.29 price SEC Form 4 filings show for 23 October 2026, the last session before Brazil's runoff, which would show the shares leading again; or a fourth-quarter 2026 90-plus-day NPL ratio back below 6.9%.

What it trades with

NU trades with Brazilian assets more than with US fintech. On 26 October 2026, Benzinga reported premarket falls of 46% for XP, 34.7% for Inter & Co, 33.8% for StoneCo and 14.1% for MercadoLibre after the runoff, and NU fell in the same session. Its relative performance over the next three months is likely to follow the Brazilian real, Brazilian interest-rate expectations and the political news flow from the incoming government's fiscal plans as much as Nu's own results. Exposure to Mexico and Colombia offsets some of this, but Brazil still accounts for about five in six customers.