SOFI · SoFi Technologies, Inc.

The thesis

SoFi Technologies is still growing quickly, but its shares have lost more than half their value as rate-hike fears hit consumer lenders. On this evidence they are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The third-quarter report, scheduled for 7 a.m. Eastern on 27 October 2026, decides whether the growth case can outweigh the rate pressure.

The business numbers are strong. In its 29 July 2026 second-quarter release, SoFi reported adjusted net revenue of $1.21 billion, up 40% year on year, and 15.8 million members, up 35%. It raised its full-year 2026 adjusted net revenue guidance to $4.75–$4.85 billion and held its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) target at about $0.60. The shares have not followed. The last close was $14.46 on 26 October 2026, 55.1% below the 52-week high of $32.21 in adjusted daily closes.

The narrative is maturing: the growth story is widely known, and the shares kept falling after the July guidance raise. MarketBeat's consensus for the third quarter is EPS of $0.1663 on revenue of $1.25 billion. MarketBeat also notes that SoFi beat the consensus EPS estimate in seven of its last eight quarters, so a routine beat is likely already expected.

Bullish and bearish views on SoFi Technologies, Inc.

The bull case on SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI), in brief: Revenue growth is accelerating. The bear case: Rate-hike bets weigh on lenders.

Bull case

• Revenue growth is accelerating. Adjusted net revenue rose 40% year on year to $1.21 billion in the second quarter of 2026, and total loan originations rose 69% to $14.8 billion, according to the company's 29 July 2026 release.
• Members and products keep compounding. SoFi ended June 2026 with 15.8 million members (up 35%) and 24.4 million products (up 42%). It guides to member growth of at least 30% for 2026.
• Deposits fund the lending. Total deposits reached $45.5 billion at 30 June 2026, up $5.3 billion in the quarter. Deposits give the bank cheaper funding than wholesale markets.
• Book value has grown fast. Tangible book value per share was $7.34 at 30 June 2026, up 56% from $4.72 a year earlier, according to the second-quarter release.
• New analyst coverage is bullish. StoneX started coverage with a Buy rating and a $25 target on 13 October 2026. Monness, Crespi, Hardt started at Buy on 26 October 2026.
• The product range keeps widening. SoFi launched "SoFi Earn," a tokenized-deposit product that converts instantly for crypto purchases, on 22 October 2026. A deal to sell Prudential term life insurance in the SoFi app was announced on 21 October 2026.

Bear case

• Rate-hike bets weigh on lenders. September consumer price index (CPI) inflation came in above forecasts on 14 October 2026, and Treasury yields and rate-hike bets rose (Benzinga). The same day SoFi fell toward its 52-week low, after Bank of America's third-quarter miss hit bank stocks.
• Reported credit losses look better because of loan sales. The personal-loan charge-off rate was 2.62% in the second quarter. The company put the figure at about 3.7% when the sales of late-stage delinquent loans are added back (29 July 2026 release).
• The technology segment is shrinking. Technology Platform net revenue fell 23% year on year to $84.5 million in the second quarter of 2026.
• That income depends on buyers continuing to want the loans.
• Analysts are cutting targets. Truist kept its Hold rating and lowered its target to $16 on 23 October 2026.

Price setup

The shares closed at $14.46 on 26 October 2026, 55.1% below the 52-week high of $32.21 and 5.2% lower over three months, in adjusted daily closes. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge, stands at 36.0: weak, but not at the oversold reading of 30. Benzinga reported an intraday low of $13.86 on 14 October 2026 and a close of $14.57 the next day. That makes the $13.86–$16 range the area the shares have traded in through October. 24/7 Wall St put the price at $15.97 on 6 October 2026, with a consensus one-year target of $20.35.

The crowding signs point to short-term trading around the report. Benzinga ran near-daily "what's going on" stories from 13 October to 21 October 2026. It tied the gains of 20 October 2026 and 21 October 2026 to traders positioning before the earnings report. With the shares far below their high, there is no stretched run-up for the report to reverse. The result will move the price.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 28 October 2026: Federal Reserve rate decision. After the hot September CPI report, the rate path drives the funding costs and loan demand behind SoFi's lending.
• ~6 November 2026, est.: third-quarter 10-Q filing. The filing gives delinquency and loan-sale detail beyond the earnings release.

Elapsed catalysts

• 27 October 2026, 7 a.m. ET: third-quarter 2026 results; conference call at 8 a.m. ET. The company announced both times. The report shows whether the $4.75–$4.85 billion revenue guidance is raised, held or cut, and whether credit stays stable. (passed 1d ago)

What would change the view

Three results would break the growth case: a cut to the full-year 2026 adjusted net revenue guidance below $4.75 billion, member growth guided below 30%, or a rise in personal-loan charge-offs above the roughly 3.7% loan-sale-adjusted rate the company disclosed for the second quarter. Any of these would show the slide in the share price was justified.

On price, a daily close below $13.50 would put the shares under the 14 October 2026 intraday low of $13.86 and end the case. The read would improve if the report raised guidance above $4.85 billion and the shares then held above Truist's $16 target. That combination would show results starting to outweigh the rate pressure.

What it trades with

SoFi trades with interest-rate expectations and bank stocks. Both links showed on 14 October 2026, when a hot CPI print and Bank of America's earnings miss pushed it toward its 52-week low. It also trades with crypto sentiment. On 25 October 2026 Benzinga grouped SoFi with Strategy and Coinbase among crypto stocks to watch, and the 22 October 2026 tokenized-deposit launch strengthens that link. Exposure to SoFi therefore overlaps with exposure to regional banks, consumer-credit fintechs and crypto-linked equities.