TMC · TMC the metals company Inc.

The thesis

TMC the metals company is a pre-revenue deep-sea nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese developer, and its shares still depend on one U.S. permitting step that has not been announced. The adjusted daily close was $2.80 on 28 October 2026, 70.3% below the 52-week high of $9.44, and the end of management's October certification window on 31 October 2026 is the next test. The third-quarter report, estimated for mid-November, follows.

The narrative is maturing: the story is well known, and the shares have stopped falling for now after the $2.67 close on 15 October 2026. The 14-day relative strength index (a 0-100 momentum gauge) was 10.6 on 15 October 2026 and 31.1 on 28 October 2026. The shares are down 21.3% over three months. TMC's second-quarter call on 13 August 2026 said NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, had advised that certification of the USA-A consolidated application was expected in October 2026, and attributed the delay to administrative issues. TMC's own description is that certification is an eligibility step and not a permit.

No NOAA certification notice, comment-deadline extension or company filing dated after 16 October 2026 appeared in company news or SEC filings through 28 October 2026. The 19 October 2026 comment deadline has passed.

Bullish and bearish views on TMC the metals company Inc.

The bull case on TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC), in brief: Permitting has a defined path. The bear case: Certification has slipped once already.

Bull case

• Permitting has a defined path. NOAA found the USA-A application in full compliance on 28 April 2026 and certified the separate USA-B exploration application on 26 May 2026, per TMC's 13 August 2026 update. NOAA's Federal Register notice 2026-16869 scheduled a virtual hearing for 13 October 2026 and closed written comments on 19 October 2026.
• Cash covers the next year, by management's account. TMC reported $98.7 million of cash at 30 June 2026, no financial debt and about $143 million of liquidity including credit facilities. Management said in the same update that cash is sufficient for at least twelve months.
• U.S. government funding is under discussion. The 13 August 2026 update says TMC is in confidential funding processes with several U.S. agencies and plans no other capital market transactions until one or more are completed.
• Targets sit far above the price. MarketBeat put the average analyst target at $10.44 on 14 October 2026, and Stifel started coverage with a Buy rating and a $10.00 target. Coverage is thin, so these are few views.
• Management depth has been added. TMC announced the appointment of Liam Mallon, a former ExxonMobil upstream president, to its board on 29 September 2026, per Stock Titan's news feed.

Bear case

• Certification has slipped once already. On the 13 August 2026 call TMC said a permit grant in the first quarter of 2027 was no longer likely, though it still expects a permit before the targeted vessel commissioning in the fourth quarter of 2027. NOAA's notice names no statutory deadline for the next steps.
• Spending runs ahead of revenue. The second-quarter 2026 net loss was $60.1 million, or $0.14 per share, including $37.2 million of settlement costs owed to Allseas. Operating cash use was $20.1 million, and MarketBeat noted the loss missed the $0.06 consensus estimate.
• Onshore plans depend on public money. TMC's update says future U.S. onshore capital spending is expected to rely mainly on U.S. government funding. No agency award has been announced.
• New shares remain possible. An automatic Form S-3ASR registration statement has been effective since 31 March 2026, and 441,135,482 shares were outstanding on 11 August 2026 per the Form 10-Q cover.
• Rating pressure is present. MarketBeat reports that Zacks Research downgraded the shares to Strong Sell and that Weiss Ratings maintains a Sell.

Price setup

The adjusted daily close was $2.80 on 28 October 2026, against a new closing low of $2.67 on 15 October 2026 and $3.79 on 2 October 2026. The 52-week high is $9.44. The close on 28 October 2026 is below the $4.34 per-share price Korea Zinc paid for its anchor stake in June 2025.

MarketBeat reported on 14 October 2026 that the 50-day average was $4.10 and the 200-day average was $4.57, so the shares trade well under both. The recovery in the relative strength index from 10.6 to 31.1 shows selling pressure easing, not buying pressure building. A daily close below $2.40 would extend the October break.

Crowding evidence is mixed. Retail attention has fallen with the price, an earnings report is due in about two weeks, and the effective registration statement allows new shares to be sold quickly. No Form 4 insider sale or equity offering dated after 16 October 2026 appeared in SEC filings.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~12 November 2026, est.: Third-quarter 2026 report. Earnings Whispers estimates 12 November 2026 after the close, and AJ Bell lists 13 November 2026. The company had not confirmed either date. The report updates cash, spending and any U.S. agency funding against the twelve-month cash view.

Elapsed catalysts

• 31 October 2026: End of management's October window for USA-A certification. A missed window pushes the permit decision later while spending continues. (passed 6d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if NOAA or TMC moves USA-A certification past 31 October 2026, or if the third-quarter report shows operating cash use rising well above the $20.1 million reported for the second quarter without an agency award. A prospectus supplement or equity offering at prices near the current range would also weaken it. The price condition is a daily close below $2.40, under the 15 October 2026 closing low of $2.67.

The case improves on a published NOAA certification notice, which would put the process on the timetable management described, or on a confirmed U.S. agency funding award.

What it trades with

TMC trades on its own permitting news more than on metals prices, because it has no production or revenue. Policy headlines on U.S. seabed minerals and international objections to deep-sea mining move it directly. Nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese prices matter to the long-run economics only.

TMCR, the separately listed royalty vehicle on Nasdaq, has its own iron-ore cash flows and debt, and they do not accrue to parent nodule economics. The shares are not a rare-earth producer, so rare-earth sector moves are a loose comparison at best.