ARES · Ares Management Corporation

The thesis

Ares Management's fee growth is intact, but private-credit stress keeps the shares at $117.01 (the 21 October 2026 close), 31.7% below the 52-week high of $171.20. The third-quarter report, due before the market opens on 29 October 2026, settles whether credit quality is holding.

The shares closed at $116.26 on 8 October 2026 and have moved little since, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has risen to 51.1 from 33.8, so the oversold reading in the prior note has cleared. The shares are down 6.5% over three months. Sell-side targets are being cut into the report: Piper Sandler lowered its target to $143 from $150 on 19 October 2026, and UBS (Neutral) lowered its to $134 on 13 October 2026.

The narrative is maturing: the private-credit story is well known, and analysts are trimming targets rather than initiating coverage since the Wells Fargo launch on 2 October 2026. The operating numbers are strong. The open question is whether borrower losses and investor withdrawals erode them.

Bullish and bearish views on Ares Management Corporation

The bull case on Ares Management Corporation (ARES), in brief: The third-quarter report shows whether that pace continued. The bear case: Credit losses are surfacing.

Bull case

• The third-quarter report shows whether that pace continued.
• Large deployment deals keep arriving. On 19 October 2026 KKR agreed to sell Infinity Transportation, a railcar-leasing company, to Ares infrastructure equity and insurance solutions funds at an enterprise value of about $2.9 billion. On 21 October 2026 Ares announced a first partnership with Norges Bank Investment Management, with a €1.5 billion equity commitment for European logistics assets.
• Earlier deals are closing. Ares committed over €1 billion to Plenitude on 1 October 2026, lifting its stake to 26.24%. Middle River Power completed its purchase of the Panoche Energy Center from an Ares infrastructure fund on 6 October 2026.
• Targets still sit above the share price. Piper Sandler's target is $143, TD Cowen's is $159 (lowered on 12 October 2026) and Wells Fargo's is $136, against the $117.01 close on 21 October 2026. Autonomous Research also adjusted its target on 21 October 2026; the figure was not available.

Bear case

• Credit losses are surfacing. Bloomberg reported on 6 October 2026 that Ares expects to recover about 50% of its money in TalkTalk after BT agreed to buy the company. Benzinga reported on 29 July 2026 that Ares flagged more underperforming investments in the second quarter as AI disrupts private-credit borrowers.
• Withdrawal pressure spans the industry. Bloomberg reported on 2 October 2026 that Blue Owl capped two business development companies again after 39% and 17% withdrawal requests. Reuters reported on 24 September 2026 that holders of Ares Strategic Income Fund requested redemption of 13.1% of shares in the third-quarter tender, against 14.4% in the prior quarter, with repurchases limited to 5%.
• Analysts are lowering targets. TD Cowen, UBS and Piper Sandler all cut targets between 12 October 2026 and 19 October 2026, ahead of the report.
• Second-quarter revenue missed. Ares reported sales of $1.018 billion against a $1.200 billion estimate on 31 July 2026, with adjusted earnings of $1.29 per share in line (Benzinga). BMO's Market Perform rating carries a $134 target.

Price setup

The adjusted daily close was $117.01 on 21 October 2026. That is 31.7% below the 52-week high of $171.20 and below the 25 September 2026 weekly close of $122.01, which the prior note used as a recovery test. The shares have traded in a narrow range around the 8 October 2026 close of $116.26 since then. The RSI of 51.1 sits in the middle of its range.

Crowding evidence is limited. The earnings date is eight days away, which concentrates the near-term risk into one session. The price is far from any rising average, and no insider sales or share issuance are on file. Analyst target cuts are the main observable sign of sentiment.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• Late October to November, est.: the next Ares Strategic Income Fund tender results would show whether redemption requests keep falling from 13.1%.

Elapsed catalysts

• 29 October 2026: third-quarter 2026 results, released before the NYSE opens. Fee-related earnings, inflows and the count of underperforming investments show whether credit quality supports fee growth. (passed 8d ago)

What would change the view

The case breaks if the third-quarter report shows a second consecutive rise in underperforming investments, or if fee-related earnings stall while inflows fall. A daily close below $105 would also end it. That level sits below the 8 October 2026 close of $116.26 and the 21 October 2026 close of $117.01.

The case strengthens if inflows hold above $30 billion and underperforming investments stop rising. Ares Strategic Income Fund redemption requests falling below 13.1% would add to that.

What it trades with

Ares trades with other listed alternative managers and with the business development companies that hold private loans. Blue Owl's withdrawal caps on 2 October 2026 and Carlyle's concentration warning on 1 October 2026 (Bloomberg) show the group moving on shared credit and redemption news. Blackstone raised $1 billion for a private-credit continuation fund on 9 October 2026, a sign that secondary-market activity continues.