Watching
COHU · Cohu, Inc.
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 9 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A weekly close below $57.08, the 11 September 2026 close, which would erase the September advance. Q3 fiscal-2026 revenue under the $163 million low end of the 30 July 2026 guidance would also break the case.
Open pick Medium conviction, opened at $70.34. Since then −3.1% against the S&P 500's +1.9% (−5.0 pp). Kill line at open: $57.08 (weekly close); graded by at the latest.
Catalyst (in 1 day)
How picks are graded →The thesis
Cohu's case is that demand for testing artificial-intelligence (AI) chips lifts third-quarter revenue into the $163–177 million range the company guided on 30 July 2026. The shares already trade at the level of the average analyst target. Two dated events decide whether results catch up with the price: the Q3 report, which third-party calendars list for about 29 October 2026, and an investor day on 10 November 2026 where management will set new financial targets.
The shares closed at $68.37 on 8 October 2026, 7.5% under the $73.91 52-week closing high and 29.5% higher over three months, per adjusted daily closes. That close sits just below the $70.88 average target of eight analysts (S&P Global via StockAnalysis, 2 October 2026) and near MarketBeat's $68.75 average (5 October 2026). The pullback from the $73.10 close on 6 October 2026 cooled the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) from 90.8 to 71.2.
The narrative is maturing, with one piece of fresh news. On 8 October 2026 Cohu announced a New York investor day for 10 November 2026, with a keynote from AMD, which the company calls one of its largest customers. No broker has published a target change since 31 July 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Cohu, Inc.
The bull case on Cohu, Inc. (COHU), in brief: Guidance sits well above prior consensus. The bear case: The price has reached most broker targets.
Bull case
- Guidance sits well above prior consensus. On 30 July 2026 Cohu guided Q3 revenue to $163–177 million, above the $146.33 million analyst consensus at the time. It set fiscal-2026 high-performance computing (HPC) revenue at $100–110 million.
- The last quarter beat on both lines. Q2 revenue was $149.0 million, up 38% year over year, against a $144.2 million estimate.
- A largest customer will speak for the demand. Cohu's 8 October 2026 release says AMD will give the investor-day keynote on the forces driving demand for advanced chips. Management will cover strategy, growth platforms, financial targets and capital priorities at the same event.
- Brokers rate the shares positively. S&P Global's eight-analyst consensus was Strong Buy on 2 October 2026 (StockAnalysis). Craig-Hallum ($74), Stifel ($70), Baird ($70), B. Riley ($69) and Needham ($65) rate the shares Buy, per changes dated 31 July 2026; TD Cowen's $80 target dates from 16 June 2026.
Bear case
- The price has reached most broker targets. The $68.37 close on 8 October 2026 is above Needham's $65 and within $2 of B. Riley's $69 and Stifel's and Baird's $70. Only TD Cowen's $80 and Craig-Hallum's $74 leave clear room above it.
- The shares sit far above their averages. MarketBeat put the 50-day moving average at $55.11 and the 200-day at $51.10 on 5 October 2026. The RSI reading of 71.2 on 8 October 2026 is still above the 70 level that usually marks an overbought stock.
- The CEO keeps selling as the price rises. Form 4 filings show CEO Luis Muller sold 55,794 shares at $60.00 on 21 September 2026, 27,236 at $65.00 on 25 September 2026 and 21,662 at $73.00 on 2 October 2026, all under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 28 May 2026.
- Accounting earnings remain near zero. Under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), Q2 showed a $0.2 million net loss after a $12.1 million loss in Q1 (company releases). MarketBeat listed a price-to-earnings ratio of -88.83 on 5 October 2026.
Price setup
The September advance took the shares from a $57.08 close on 11 September 2026 to $68.14 on 30 September 2026 and a $73.91 52-week closing high, per adjusted daily closes. Investing.com recorded an intraday all-time high of $74.69 on 2 October 2026. The $68.37 close on 8 October 2026 gave back part of that run but held at the 30 September 2026 close.
The $68.14 close of 30 September 2026 is the first level that shows whether the October pullback stays shallow. The $57.08 close of 11 September 2026 marks where the September move began. MarketBeat's 50-day average of $55.11 sits just below it.
Crowding is visible in three places: an RSI that ran to 90.8 on 6 October 2026, a CEO selling into each higher price, and a report about three weeks away with the shares already at consensus targets.
Catalysts, next 30 days
- 13 October 2026 — CEO Investor Summit, San Francisco. Cohu said on 29 September 2026 that management will present. It is the first management commentary since the investor-day announcement and the October pullback.
- ~29 October 2026, est. Q3 fiscal-2026 results and call. MarketBeat lists 29 October 2026; Cohu has not confirmed the date (the Q3 2025 report came on 29 October 2025). The report shows whether revenue reaches $163–177 million, whether gross margin holds near 45.5% and whether the $100–110 million HPC outlook stands.
- 10 November 2026 — Investor day, New York, 9:00 a.m.–12:00 p.m. Eastern. Falls just outside 30 days, but the case turns on it: management will publish financial targets and AMD will speak on demand (Cohu release, 8 October 2026).
What would change the view
The case breaks if Q3 fiscal-2026 revenue lands below the $163 million low end of the 30 July 2026 guidance. It also breaks if the fiscal-2026 HPC outlook falls below $100 million on the Q3 call, or if the 10 November 2026 financial targets fail to support the price the shares already carry.
On price, a weekly close below $57.08, the 11 September 2026 close, would erase the September advance. A non-GAAP gross margin below 45% in Q3 or in the Q4 guide would weaken the case without ending it. Broker target cuts after the report would show that the analysts who set the $70.88 average see less room than the price implies.
What it trades with
Cohu trades with chip-equipment and test peers, including Veeco (VECO), ChipMOS (IMOS), FormFactor (FORM) and Axcelis (ACLS); a sector-wide sell-off in August 2026 pulled these names down together regardless of company results. The semiconductor foundry and equipment group has been maturing since late September after three weeks of saturated readings in September, which raises the bar for single-name results.
Cohu's HPC revenue ties it to AI accelerator programs at large customers, AMD among them per the company's 8 October 2026 release. AMD's own results and guidance are a direct read-through for Cohu's HPC outlook. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) monthly sales offer a broader check on advanced-chip volume.
Notes
- $260M of 1.50% convertible senior notes due 15 January 2031 (priced September 2025, upsized from $200M) rank ahead of the common shares in the capital structure.
- Headline EPS is non-GAAP. Q2 FY26 showed a GAAP net loss of $0.2M, and Q1 FY26 a GAAP net loss of $12.1M, or -$0.26 per share.
- CEO share sales run under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 28 May 2026, so further Form 4 sales may follow on the plan's schedule.
Related · shared themes
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's third-quarter sales of about NT$1.49 trillion beat its own guidance, so the case now rests on margin; the 15 October 2026 report decides whether gross margin holds 65% and fourth-quarter guidance keeps that floor.
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.
Applied Materials' chip-equipment recovery case holds as TSMC's September revenue rose 54.6% and Micron raises spending; the 13 October 2026 SEMICON West briefing, TSMC's 15 October 2026 results and the ~12 November 2026 report against a $10.25 billion guide settle it.
ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML Holding's raised €43–45 billion 2026 sales outlook and rising memory-maker spending support its lithography upturn; third-quarter sales against the €11.0–12.0 billion guide on 14 October 2026 settle the near-term case.
LRCX
Lam Research Corporation
Lam Research's recovery case rests on record memory profits, such as Samsung's 8 October 2026 guidance, turning into etch and deposition tool orders; the 21 October 2026 report settles it, needing revenue at or above the $8.10 billion guidance midpoint and no China licence disruption.