COHU · Cohu, Inc. · Stock research

All prices are split/dividend-adjusted daily closes; the reference close is 2026-08-21.

COHU — Cohu, Inc.

Current Thesis

The picks-and-shovels leg is AI/HPC test handling (Eclipse with Active Thermal Control) plus HBM inspection (Neon), and the fundamental case has not been revised since 2026-07-30: Q2 FY26 revenue $149.0M (+38% YoY) against $144.08M consensus, non-GAAP EPS $0.26 against $0.14, and a Q3 guide of $163–177M against a $146.33M consensus. What has moved since this coverage last ran on 2026-08-08 is the tape, not the model. The 2026-08-07 close of $52.88 marked the low-water point of the late-July chip de-rate; the 2026-08-21 close is $54.37, still 26.4% under the $73.91 52-week high, with a three-month price change of +16.8% and RSI(14) at 58.8. Price traded above $55 during the week of 2026-08-17 — a Form 4 sale cleared at $55.78–$55.97 on 2026-08-19 — and has closed back beneath the June re-rate shelf near $55. Two weeks of repair, no reclaim.

Bullish and bearish views on Cohu, Inc.

The model's bull view on Cohu, Inc. (COHU), in brief: Q2 FY26 (reported 2026-07-30): revenue $149.0M, +38% YoY, versus $144.08M consensus; non-GAAP EPS $0.26 versus $0.14; non-GAAP gross margin 45.5%; recurring revenue 53% of total. The bear view: direct holdings after the sale are 159,702 shares, of which 109,565 are unvested RSUs (Investing.com insider-trading report, 2026-08-20). Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Q2 FY26 (reported 2026-07-30): revenue $149.0M, +38% YoY, versus $144.08M consensus; non-GAAP EPS $0.26 versus $0.14; non-GAAP gross margin 45.5%; recurring revenue 53% of total. Investing.com's 2026-08-20 recap adds systems revenue +41% sequentially.
• Q3 FY26 guided to $163–177M (~$170M ±$7M, +14% sequential, +35% YoY) against $146.33M consensus, gross margin ~45%, opex ~$54M. No revision to that guide has been published through 2026-08-21 — the number the late-October print is graded against is still the one issued 2026-07-30.
• HPC pipeline framed at ~$850M annually on the 2026-07-30 call, up from ~$750M on 2026-04-30: $190M qualified across 4 customers, $250M in active qualification across 5, $445M early-stage across 10. FY26 HPC revenue outlook raised to $100–110M from $80–100M.
• Order mix rotated into compute in Q2: computing 46% of system orders and +150% YoY; industrial orders +87% YoY; software analytics orders +140% YoY with its first $1M revenue quarter.
• A $26M Eclipse systems order booked in early July 2026, with semiconductor test utilization at 80% at quarter end — management's stated marker for a customer capex turn.
• The published target stack has not been marked down. TD Cowen $80 (2026-06-16), Baird $65 (2026-07-09), Stifel $70 (2026-07-10), Needham $65 and B. Riley $69 (both 2026-07-31). No cut has surfaced in analyst-action reporting between 2026-08-01 and 2026-08-21.

Bear Case

• direct holdings after the sale are 159,702 shares, of which 109,565 are unvested RSUs (Investing.com insider-trading report, 2026-08-20).
• The bounce did not stick. Investing.com's 2026-08-20 piece notes the shares fell 8.3% in the preceding week after climbing 180% over the trailing year. The 2026-08-21 close of $54.37 sits under the ~$55 shelf that prior coverage identified on 2026-07-12 as the level defining the June re-rate.
• Targets struck $65–80 against a $54.37 close are unresolved downgrade risk, not support; every one of the five was set before the August drawdown and none has been revisited.
• Legacy end-markets are still contracting: automotive orders −24% YoY in Q2 FY26.
• Input-cost pressure was flagged on the 2026-07-30 call — longer lead times and higher prices for memory and specialty components, no shortages yet — against a ~45% Q3 gross-margin guide.
• GAAP has not caught up to the non-GAAP headline: Q1 FY26 (2026-04-30) printed a GAAP net loss of $12.1M, or −$0.26 per share.
• The news window is empty. The only dated company items in the past 30 days are conference appearances; the 2026-08-19 Needham virtual appearance produced no follow-on order or pipeline disclosure in the public flow.

Setup & Price Structure

• Reference close 2026-08-21: $54.37. Distance from the $73.91 52-week high: −26.4%. Three-month price change: +16.8%. RSI(14): 58.8 — mid-range, neither washed out nor extended.
• The structure is a partial repair of the late-July/early-August rout: from the 2026-08-07 close of $52.88 the stock has clawed back roughly a point and a half, tagged the mid-$55s intraweek on 2026-08-19 (evidenced by the Form 4 execution range), and closed back below the shelf. The June breakout area near $55 is the level that converts this from a bounce into a reclaim; it has not converted.
• The narrative is maturing. Prior coverage on 2026-08-08 labelled it saturated at the point of maximum dislocation. Two weeks later the structure held above the rout low, the fundamental guide stands un-revised since 2026-07-30, and there has been neither a new bull headline nor a downgrade — well known, still working, flow moderating. The downgrade from saturated is a judgement about the last ten sessions and would revert if the $55 area rejects price a second time.
• Crowding/positioning observables, stated as observables: an officer Form 4 sale at a weighted average $55.82 dated 2026-08-19; five sell-side targets clustered $65–80, all above spot, none revised since 2026-07-31; a trailing one-year price change of +180% (Investing.com, 2026-08-20); $260M of 1.50% convertible senior notes due 2031-01-15 sitting above the equity; no earnings date inside 30 days, so there is no imminent-print compression in the setup.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• ~2026-10-29 (est.) — Q3 FY26 results. Outside the 30-day window. Tests the $163–177M guide and the $100–110M FY26 HPC outlook.
• 2026-11-10 — investor day, New York (company IR event calendar). Outside the window; next scheduled multi-year model update.

Elapsed catalysts

• 2026-08-25 — Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communications Technology Conference, Four Seasons Chicago (company announcement of investor-conference participation). The one dated venue in the window for order-cadence commentary and management's read on whether the late-July de-rate changed customer capex conversations. (passed 1d ago)
• 2026-08-19 [elapsed] — Needham Virtual Semiconductor Conference. Came and went without a public order or qualification-conversion update; the $250M active-qualification bucket is unchanged in the public record since 2026-07-30. (passed 7d ago)

What Would Change Our Mind

The recovery's entire claim is that the ~$55 June re-rate shelf gets taken back on a closing beis— on a close, and turned into support. It has been touched and rejected once, on 2026-08-19. A second rejection followed by a give-back through the early-August lows would say the July beat-and-raise has been fully discounted and the multiple is doing the pricing. The gradeable break: a weekly close below $47 completes the round-trip of the June–July AI re-rate and takes out the early-August rout low. On the fundamental side, Q3 FY26 revenue printing beneath the $163M low end of the 2026-07-30 guide, or an FY26 HPC revenue outlook cut back under $100M on that call, would be the first crack in the AI test ramp itself. A third condition, cheaper to observe: the first price-target cut from any of TD Cowen, Baird, Stifel, Needham or B. Riley would mark the sell-side stack beginning to converge down to price rather than price converging up to it. Conversely, a weekly close back above the $55 shelf with a follow-on Eclipse order disclosed would push the label back toward accelerating.

Correlation Notes

• High beta to the back-end test cluster. Teradyne, Onto Innovation and FormFactor move on the same AI-test capex narrative; sector-wide rally and de-rate days have set Cohu's direction more often than company disclosure has since 2026-07-28, when the chip complex began repricing on AI-capex-peaking and China-competition concerns (Bloomberg 2026-07-28; CNBC 2026-07-29 on more than $1T of chip market value shed).
• HBM inspection ties the Neon line to memory capex, so DRAM/HBM capex commentary from the large memory makers is a read-through into the inspection order line.
• Automotive and industrial test exposure runs the other way — the −24% YoY automotive order line in Q2 FY26 correlates with the analog/auto semi complex, which has been in its own downcycle.
• Small float and a $260M convertible tranche mean index and sector-ETF flow move the equity disproportionately versus large-cap semicap peers.