Watching
IT · Gartner, Inc.
Updated ·
Against its published line
Above its line on the last close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the thesis wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 22 October 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Kill line
A weekly close below $168, which would take the shares well under the September range and end the recovery. Contract-value growth at or below 1.7% in the third-quarter report would also break the operating case.
Not a pickResearch coverage at low conviction. A medium-or-higher call would open a pick on the scoreboard.
How picks are graded →The thesis
Gartner's share rebound is pricing a return to faster subscription growth, and the third-quarter report, expected around 3 November 2026, settles whether it holds. The test is whether foreign-exchange-neutral contract value grows faster than the 1.7% year-over-year rate Gartner reported for 30 June 2026, with the annual revenue floor of $6.375 billion intact.
Adjusted daily closes put Gartner at $191.15 on 9 October 2026, up 43.8% over three months, with a 14-day relative strength index (a 0–100 momentum gauge) of 57.5. The close is 26.0% below the 52-week high of $258.17 and below the 28 August 2026 close of $198.39. The narrative is maturing: the 4 August 2026 earnings reset and the analyst target changes that followed are public, and the next fact that can move the case is the contract-value figure for 30 September 2026.
Analyst moves since the last note are modest. UBS raised its target to $208 on 5 October 2026 and kept a Neutral rating. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $182 on 8 October 2026 and kept Equal-Weight. Neither action changes the operating evidence, so the rating stays where it was.
Bullish and bearish views on Gartner, Inc.
The bull case on Gartner, Inc. (IT), in brief: Contract value still grew. The bear case: Revenue is not growing.
Bull case
- Contract value still grew. Gartner's 4 August 2026 second-quarter release reported foreign-exchange-neutral contract value of about $5.3 billion at 30 June 2026, up 1.7% year over year. A reading above that rate for 30 September 2026 would support the recovery.
- Gartner guided full-year adjusted earnings per share above $14.00 against a $13.64 estimate.
- Conferences grew sharply. Second-quarter Conferences revenue was $244 million, up 15.5% year over year, per the 4 August 2026 release. The Orlando IT Symposium/Xpo runs 19 October 2026 through 22 October 2026, per Gartner's 9 July 2026 announcement.
- Some analysts raised targets in October. UBS lifted its target to $208 on 5 October 2026, and BMO Capital held a $206 target on 18 August 2026.
Bear case
- Revenue is not growing. Second-quarter revenue of $1.676 billion was down 0.6% year over year, per the 4 August 2026 release. Adjusted earnings rose without a matching revenue turn.
- Consulting keeps shrinking. Second-quarter Consulting revenue was $142 million, down 8.8% year over year, per the 4 August 2026 release.
- Guidance sits below the consensus. The full-year revenue floor of $6.375 billion compares with a $6.431 billion consensus estimate, per Benzinga on 4 August 2026.
- Most analyst targets are cautious. Wells Fargo (Underweight) has a $150 target and RBC Capital (Sector Perform) has $164, both set 5 August 2026. Goldman Sachs (Neutral) has $181 as of 5 August 2026 and Morgan Stanley $182 as of 8 October 2026. The 9 October 2026 close of $191.15 sits above all four.
- The stock has not reclaimed its late-August close. The 9 October 2026 close is below the 28 August 2026 close of $198.39, and far below the 52-week high of $258.17.
Price setup
The adjusted close on 9 October 2026 was $191.15. The 25 September 2026 close was $187.9, and the 11 September 2026 close was $179.59. The shares have recovered part of the September weakness. A weekly close above the 28 August 2026 close of $198.39 would show the August recovery resuming. A weekly close below $168 would end the thesis.
Crowding evidence is limited. The three-month gain of 43.8% is large, but the relative strength index of 57.5 is not stretched. The Q3 report, estimated for ~3 November 2026, falls within the next 30 days. No insider selling or share issuance was found in recent filings, and Gartner has been a net repurchaser of its own shares.
Catalysts, next 30 days
- ~3 November 2026, est.: Third-quarter 2026 results. Gartner has not confirmed the date. The 2025 report came on 4 November 2025. The release should show contract value at 30 September 2026 and whether the $6.375 billion revenue floor holds.
Elapsed catalysts
- 19 October to 22 October 2026: Orlando IT Symposium/Xpo. It is Gartner's flagship annual event, and Conferences revenue depends on its timing. No financial disclosure is scheduled with it. (passed 1d ago)
What would change the view
The case breaks if Gartner's foreign-exchange-neutral contract-value growth at 30 September 2026 is at or below the 1.7% rate for 30 June 2026. It also breaks if Gartner lowers its annual revenue floor below $6.375 billion, or if Consulting declines further without Conferences or subscriptions offsetting it. On price, a weekly close below $168 would end the recovery thesis. A weekly close above $198.39 would strengthen it without settling the operating question.
What it trades with
Gartner sells research subscriptions, advisory work and events to corporate technology and business buyers. Its results depend on enterprise budgets and on how companies spend on technology advice, so it often moves with enterprise software and consulting names. No theme cluster currently carries it. Its quarter-to-quarter swings in Conferences revenue come from event timing, not from the subscription trend.
Notes
- Gartner reports contract-value growth on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis; that rate differs from growth in reported currency.
- Conferences revenue shifts with event timing, including the annual October IT Symposium/Xpo, so sequential segment comparisons need that calendar context.
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