M · Macy's Inc.

The thesis

Macy's operating turnaround is intact, and the shares have now recovered above their pre-report level, but a guided third-quarter loss keeps the call cautious. The company raised fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to $2.15–$2.35 per share on 10 September 2026, and the shares closed at $23.86 on 27 October 2026, above the $23.05 close of 4 September 2026. The third-quarter report, expected around 2 December 2026 (date not confirmed), settles whether earnings hold once the one-time tariff refund drops out.

The narrative is maturing: the guidance raise is well known, and the only company news since the 15 October 2026 note is the 23 October 2026 announcement that Macy's maintained its quarterly dividend, plus holiday-season marketing items dated 22 October 2026 and 26 October 2026. The shares have risen from the $21.94 close of 18 September 2026 without a new earnings datapoint, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) read 61.4 on 27 October 2026, up from 56.5 on 14 October 2026.

Of that, $0.23 came from net tariff refunds that the company does not expect to repeat (company release, 10 September 2026). Third-quarter guidance is an adjusted loss of 19 to 23 cents per share on sales of $4.65–$4.70 billion, against consensus of a 6-cent loss and $4.68 billion (Tiger Brokers news service, 10 September 2026).

Bullish and bearish views on Macy's Inc.

The bull case on Macy's Inc. (M), in brief: Sales beat the company's own guide. The bear case: Refunds flatter the quarter.

Bull case

• Sales beat the company's own guide. Second-quarter comparable sales rose 2.7% against guidance of flat to +1%, and net sales rose 1.1% to $4.9 billion (company release, 10 September 2026).
• Full-year range moved up. Adjusted EPS guidance became $2.15–$2.35 from $2.00–$2.20, with comparable sales guided to +1.0% to +1.5% (company 8-K, 10 September 2026).
• The shares have regained the pre-report close. The close of $23.86 on 27 October 2026 compares with $23.05 on 4 September 2026 and the post-report low of $21.94 on 18 September 2026 (adjusted daily closes).
• The top analyst target held. Stock Analysis records Morgan Stanley reiterating its Overweight rating and $30 target on 14 September 2026. The consensus target was $23.36 across 11 analysts as of 1 October 2026 (third-party aggregator).
• Large holder disclosed a bigger stake. Berkshire Hathaway's Form 13F-HR filed 14 August 2026 showed 7.37 million shares at 30 June 2026, up from 3.04 million a quarter earlier.
• The dividend continues. Macy's announced on 23 October 2026 that it maintained its quarterly dividend. The prior payment was 19.15 cents per share, paid 1 October 2026 (company release, 28 August 2026).

Bear case

• Refunds flatter the quarter. The $0.23 net tariff-refund benefit sits inside the $0.63 adjusted EPS. About $20 million of $116 million in refunds reaches full-year earnings and the rest is reinvested (company 8-K, 10 September 2026).
• Third-quarter guide is a loss. The guided loss of 19 to 23 cents compares with a consensus loss of 6 cents (Tiger Brokers news service, 10 September 2026). Third-quarter comparable sales are guided between down 0.5% and up 0.5% (company guidance reported by MarketBeat, 10 September 2026).
• The sharpest sceptic held firm. Investing.com reported on 17 September 2026 that UBS kept its $10 target, citing market-share concerns. The aggregator consensus rating was Hold as of 1 October 2026.
• The recent rise leaves less room to the average target. The $23.86 close of 27 October 2026 sits above the $23.36 consensus target of 1 October 2026, which limits what an average analyst sees as upside.
• Berkshire data is old. The 13F describes holdings at 30 June 2026 only. The next disclosure is due about 16 November 2026.

Price setup

Macy's closed at $23.86 on 27 October 2026 (split- and dividend-adjusted daily closes). That is 8.2% below the 52-week high of $25.99. The three-month price change was -3.5%. The shares traded between $21.94 (18 September 2026 close) and $23.86 in the six weeks since the second-quarter report.

The 14-day RSI of 61.4 is higher than the 56.5 of 14 October 2026 but below the 70 level usually read as overbought. The $23.05 pre-report close of 4 September 2026 is the first level the shares have cleared on the way up. The $25.99 52-week high is the next reference point above.

Crowding evidence is limited. Sell-side views remain split between Morgan Stanley's $30 and UBS's $10.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• 31 October 2026, fiscal third quarter ends. Fiscal 2026 runs to roughly 30 January 2027, and the quarter closes on the Saturday nearest the month-end. No results arrive on this date.
• ~16 November 2026 (est.), Berkshire Hathaway Q3 Form 13F deadline. It shows whether the 7.37 million-share position was added to, held or reduced in the third quarter.
• 26 November 2026, Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Its 100th edition opens the holiday season, with Purina Dog Chow named as a partner on 26 October 2026. The parade is a brand event and does not settle the earnings case.
• ~2 December 2026 (est.), Q3 FY2026 results. The date is not confirmed and falls outside the 30-day window. It tests the guided loss of 19 to 23 cents and the $2.15–$2.35 full-year range.

What would change the view

The case breaks if third-quarter results show a loss wider than the 23 cents guided, if comparable sales turn negative beyond the guided range, or if fiscal 2026 guidance is cut back toward $2.00–$2.20. Any of these would show that the second-quarter improvement relied on the tariff refund.

On price, a daily close below $21.90, just under the $21.94 post-report close of 18 September 2026, would erase the whole recovery since the report. A close above the $25.99 52-week high, with guidance intact, would show the market accepting the turnaround and would move the read toward a more positive call.

Sell-side rating changes after the third-quarter report would also matter. Today's Hold consensus leaves room for upgrades if the loss comes in at or narrower than the guide.

What it trades with

Macy's trades with US department stores and mid-priced apparel retailers, and its results track consumer spending in the holiday quarter. Peer reports in November, covering the same weeks of consumer demand, are the nearest read-through on comparable sales. Tariff policy and refund timing affect the earnings comparison with last year. Berkshire Hathaway's disclosed stake is a company-specific input that may draw attention to the shares around the 13F deadline.