MGM · MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL

The thesis

MGM Resorts International trades on its operations alone, and the shares have kept falling since People Inc. withdrew its $48.30 per share cash proposal on 23 September 2026: the adjusted close was $27.99 on 27 October 2026, 44.8% below the 52-week high of $50.69. The third-quarter report, due after the market close on 28 October 2026, settles whether Las Vegas Strip revenue and adjusted earnings justify a rebound.

The takeover narrative is over: People Inc. said it would not pursue a private deal "at this time". The selloff is now the story, and it is widely covered. Benzinga reported on 9 October 2026 that MGM was heading for a 15th straight weekly decline, the longest in its history.

What changed since the 15 October 2026 note: five more brokerages cut price targets on 19 October 2026 and 20 October 2026, and the close of $27.99 sits under the $28.00 level the previous note named. The rating stays low because the evidence has not turned: no operating report has yet shown stabilisation.

People Inc. still holds 66.8 million MGM shares, about 27% of the company, per its 23 September 2026 Schedule 13D/A (the filing in which a large holder reports its stake). The Wall Street Journal reported on 24 September 2026 that MGM was exploring an offer for People Inc. No agreement has been announced.

Bullish and bearish views on MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL

The bull case on MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL (MGM), in brief: Selling is extreme by the shares' own history. The bear case: The takeover floor is gone.

Bull case

• Selling is extreme by the shares' own history. The adjusted close was $27.99 on 27 October 2026, with a three-month change of -38.7% and a 14-day relative strength index (a 0–100 momentum gauge) of 34.3, per split- and dividend-adjusted daily closes. The index read 9.0 on 14 October 2026.
• BetMGM beat on profit. BetMGM reported third-quarter net revenue of $710 million, up 7% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $86 million, up 112%, on 13 October 2026.
• Most analysts still rate the shares positively. JPMorgan (Overweight, target $42) and Truist (Buy, $45) cut targets on 20 October 2026. Susquehanna (Positive, $41, 8 October 2026) and Macquarie (Outperform, $48, 7 October 2026) did the same.
• Strip revenue was growing at last report. Las Vegas Strip revenue was $2.2 billion for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, up 3% year over year, per MGM's 29 July 2026 release.
• A 27% holder stays interested. People Inc. said on 23 September 2026 that it remains open to a strategic transaction. A renewed approach is possible but unannounced.

Bear case

• The takeover floor is gone. MGM closed at $37.85 on 23 September 2026, then traded near $33.70 after hours, per Gaming Intelligence. The adjusted close was $27.99 five weeks later.
• Targets keep falling. Morgan Stanley (Underweight) and Wells Fargo (Equal-Weight) each cut to $29 on 19 October 2026. Stifel (Hold) cut to $40 on 20 October 2026. Citi (Neutral, $32, 12 October 2026) and Barclays (Equal-Weight, $37, 9 October 2026) cut earlier.
• Consolidated earnings were slipping. Adjusted EBITDA was $610 million for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, against $648 million a year earlier, per the 29 July 2026 release.
• Macau keeps weakening. Macau gross gaming revenue was MOP18.06 billion in September, down 1.2% year over year, the fourth straight monthly decline and the lowest monthly total of 2026, per the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
• A large holder could sell. People Inc.'s 66.8 million shares are about 27% of MGM. Any reduction reported in a Schedule 13D/A would add supply to a falling market.

Price setup

The adjusted close was $27.99 on 27 October 2026. That is 44.8% below the 52-week high of $50.69 and under the $28.00 level the previous note used as its invalidation line. The three-month change is -38.7%.

The 14-day relative strength index rose from 9.0 on 14 October 2026 to 34.3 on 27 October 2026. That reading means selling has slowed from its extreme, not that the shares have turned up.

Crowding evidence points toward positioning that is already negative: a record weekly losing streak per Benzinga, nine target cuts across 7 October to 20 October 2026, and an earnings release on 28 October 2026. The shares sit below every analyst target found, the lowest being $29 from Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo.

Catalysts, next 30 days

No upcoming dated catalysts on file — the dated entries below have passed.

Elapsed catalysts

• 28 October 2026: MGM third-quarter 2026 results after the market close, with a call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Strip revenue, adjusted EBITDA and any comment on People Inc. are the points that matter. (passed 9d ago)
• ~29 October 2026, est.: Nevada Gaming Control Board September gaming-revenue report. The year-over-year change in Strip gaming revenue tests the demand backdrop. (passed 8d ago)
• ~1 November 2026, est.: Macau October gross gaming revenue release. A rise would end four straight monthly declines; another fall extends the run. (passed 5d ago)
• Undated: any MGM or People Inc. announcement on a reverse transaction or a renewed proposal, following the Wall Street Journal's 24 September 2026 report. (passed 43d ago)

What would change the view

The low rating would rise if the 28 October 2026 report shows Strip revenue growing and adjusted EBITDA at or above the year-earlier quarter, or if People Inc. returns with a new proposal. The case for a rebound breaks if Strip revenue falls year over year or if MGM announces a deal for People Inc. that redirects shareholder capital.

A daily close below $25.00, a further decline from the $27.99 close on 27 October 2026, would extend the post-withdrawal slide with no operating support. Further target cuts or downgrades after the report would point the same way.

What it trades with

MGM moves with Las Vegas Strip peers and Macau operators. Benzinga reported on 9 October 2026 that Wynn Resorts was on track for a ninth straight weekly decline and Las Vegas Sands for a seventh. BetMGM, a 50/50 joint venture with Entain, links MGM to online-betting sentiment. MGM China trades separately in Hong Kong and follows monthly Macau revenue.