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Prediction markets & betting theme · 13 dossiers
Dossiers in the Prediction markets & betting theme cluster — 13 names moving on shared catalysts.
DormantLast produced 31 July 2026, 41 days ago — outside the 14-day window the model counts as current work.
All 13 are dated research with a published kill line — the level named in advance that would prove the call wrong.
All dossiers FA First Advantage Corporation MEDIUM Aug 6 flipped the frame: Q2 revenue $448.8M/+14.9% vs $415.0M consensus, adj EPS $0.35 vs $0.28, and the first FY guide raise of the cycle ($1.67–1.71B). Needham upgraded to Buy/$28, RBC to $24 — targets moved above spot for the first… NSP Insperity, Inc MEDIUM Margin-repair re-rating in a legacy PEO has stalled just under its high: the 2026-09-04 close of $51.96 sits 2.7% below the $53.40 adjusted 52-week high, and the +162,000 August payroll beat did not extend it because professional and… CRSR Corsair Gaming, Inc. LOW The recovery leg off the 2026-08-21 close of $10.93 carried CRSR to $12.00 on 2026-08-28 without any company disclosure: the margin-mix story (33.2% Q2 gross margin, peripherals +13% YoY at 44.9%) is fully published, Goldman's 2026-08-19… MAN ManpowerGroup LOW Cyclical staffing inflection confirmed by the 2026-08-07 10-Q, but sell-side marks stopped moving 2026-07-20 and the next company binary is ~2026-10-15. MKTX MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. HIGH ICE's $167.00 all-cash deal (signed 2026-07-30) leaves MKTX trading purely as a spread: $167.00 less the 2026-08-28 close of $162.72 is $4.28 gross, in from $4.89 a week earlier. ICE's $3.75B bond pricing on 2026-08-11 took the financing… AMC Amc Entertainment Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM Box-office recovery flipped from meme-squeeze dormancy to a fundamental earnings inflection: Q2 (2026-07-20) adj EPS $0.14 vs $(0.06) est, revenue $1.597B beat, plus a Wedbush $4 / Benchmark $3 upgrade cluster (2026-07-21). Narrative… CME CME Group Inc. MEDIUM Listing calendar keeps thickening: wind power futures for Q4 (announced 2026-08-26) and E-mini Equity Factor futures for 2026-09-21 (announced 2026-08-27) join the 2026-08-11 slate of 24/7 silver (09-11), NHL futures (09-28) and Silicon… PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. MEDIUM Q2 (2026-08-06) kept the digital turnaround on schedule — interactive adj-EBITDA loss $9.5M (+$52.5M YoY), Q4-2026 profitability target and $1.963B retail EBITDAR midpoint intact — but the tape decoupled: prediction-market headlines took… SNEX StoneX Group Inc. MEDIUM The momentum leg stayed dead, but the tape stopped breaking: closes ran $64.85 on 2026-08-11 to $69.46 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) back to 53.9. New since the last note is the 2026-08-26 8-K authorizing repurchase of up to 5.0M shares for… AMN AMN Healthcare Services LOW Healthcare-staffing cyclical recovery, real but maturing and now at the highs: ~$32.9 (2026-07-24), just off a fresh 52-wk high $36.27 (~+120% off $14.87). Truist's 2026-07-22 lift to a Street-high $40 Buy is the first target leading… GENI Genius Sports Limited LOW Sports-data toll-booth under the prediction-market boom, but the boom arrived and the toll didn't: Kalshi/Polymarket cleared $50B+ of World Cup volume (Coindesk, 2026-07-14) while GENI slid $6.43 → $6.30 and printed $5.98 intraday July 17.… MGM MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL LOW Take-private process went live: WSJ reported substantive Diller talks 2026-07-10, MGM seated a special committee mid-July, and the board reportedly views $48.30 as too low — so the trade is now a bump handicap, not a growth story. At… SRAD Sportradar Group AG LOW Scope expanded, revenue did not: the 2026-08-27 Polymarket deal widened to 20+ leagues and ~300,000 matches a year, and the 2026-08-26 Euroleague renewal runs to 2031, yet the 2026-08-28 close of $12.94 sits below the $13.82 of two weeks…