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Prediction markets & betting theme · 13 dossiers
Dossiers in the Prediction markets & betting theme cluster — 13 names moving on shared catalysts.
All dossiers CME CME Group Inc. MEDIUM Event-contract and 24/7 pivot got dates: NHL FutureSports futures 2026-09-28, Silicon Data H100/B200 compute futures 2026-10-05, 24/7 silver 2026-09-11 — all announced 2026-08-11. Price recovered to $274.98 (2026-08-21) but still sits… FA First Advantage Corporation MEDIUM Aug 6 flipped the frame: Q2 revenue $448.8M/+14.9% vs $415.0M consensus, adj EPS $0.35 vs $0.28, and the first FY guide raise of the cycle ($1.67–1.71B). Needham upgraded to Buy/$28, RBC to $24 — targets moved above spot for the first… NSP Insperity, Inc MEDIUM Q2 binary resolved constructively on 2026-07-29: adj EPS $0.34 beat $0.32, and the FY worksite-employee guide floor was raised to 305,000 from 303,000 — the first guide that did not cut volume. Margin-repair re-rating carried price to a… PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. MEDIUM Q2 (2026-08-06) kept the digital turnaround on schedule — interactive adj-EBITDA loss $9.5M (+$52.5M YoY), Q4-2026 profitability target and $1.963B retail EBITDAR midpoint intact — but the tape decoupled: prediction-market headlines took… SE Sea Limited MEDIUM Three-engine re-acceleration — Shopee GMV +30%, Monee loan book +71%, Garena's best quarter in 5 years — drove a Q1 beat (2026-05-12) and a +19% one-month recovery off the $77 low. Fundamentally accelerating, but the stock is short-term… CRSR Corsair Gaming, Inc. LOW Post-print margin leg has lost its price structure: after a 2026-08-07 close of $14.35 (52-wk high), CRSR closed 2026-08-21 at $10.93, -23.8%, and Goldman initiated at Sell with an $11 target on 2026-08-19 over AI-driven DRAM cost… GENI Genius Sports Limited LOW Sports-data toll-booth under the prediction-market boom, but the boom arrived and the toll didn't: Kalshi/Polymarket cleared $50B+ of World Cup volume (Coindesk, 2026-07-14) while GENI slid $6.43 → $6.30 and printed $5.98 intraday July 17.… KFRC Kforce Inc. LOW Cyclical staffing recovery is fully printed — Q1 returned to YoY growth, Q2 guided +~4% — but price ran ~24% in three weeks to a fresh all-time high near $58.6, ~38% above the $42.33 consensus PT, into the confirmed 2026-07-27 Q2 print. A… MGM MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL LOW Take-private process went live: WSJ reported substantive Diller talks 2026-07-10, MGM seated a special committee mid-July, and the board reportedly views $48.30 as too low — so the trade is now a bump handicap, not a growth story. At… MKTX MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. LOW ICE's $167.00 all-cash agreement (signed 2026-07-30) has fully converted MKTX into a spread instrument, and the spread has drifted wider: $167.00 less the 2026-08-21 close of $162.11 leaves $4.89 gross against an H1 2027 guided close.… RHI Robert Half Inc. LOW White-collar staffing in secular decline: Q2 EPS collapsed to $0.26 (2026-07-23) as AI automation and a frozen hiring market gut permanent-placement demand. The >5% dividend yield reads as a value-trap signal rather than a floor. No… SNEX StoneX Group Inc. LOW The split-momentum leg is dead. SNEX round-tripped from a $139.01 all-time-high close (2026-06-18) to $102.99 on 2026-07-17 — down 12.5% in a week, 22.4% in a month — while insiders dumped $94.2M over three months with zero buys.… SRAD Sportradar Group AG LOW Binary resolved against the bull leg: the 2026-08-03 Q2 print missed both lines, cut FY sales guidance to $1.765–1.782B, and put only "tens of millions" of euros of 2026 prediction-market revenue on the board — then Genius Sports signed…