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Oil, energy & geopolitical theme · 41 dossiers

Dossiers in the Oil, energy & geopolitical theme cluster — 41 names moving on shared catalysts.

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MTUM fresh LOW The AI-memory leg MTUM rotated into at the May reconstitution has rolled over: SOX -20%+ from its June peak, memory names in a bear market, and the fund closed $302.09 on 2026-07-17, below the $310 shelf that defined the… Compounder · AI chips & memory · AI datacenter infrastructure catalyst · WTI W&T Offshore, Inc. fresh MEDIUM War-premium crude expression left for dead in early July has violently re-fired: the June-17 US–Iran MOU collapsed, nine nights of US airstrikes and a July-7 Hormuz tanker attack drove WTI crude +~20% to $83 (Jul 20). Unlike May, the… Defensive · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Squeeze & momentum setups catalyst · BWLP BW LPG Limited MEDIUM Hormuz VLGC rate shock now hangs on one date: the 2026-08-28 H1 report tests ~85% of Q2 days pre-fixed near $81,000/day (guided 2026-06-02) against the -$31M Product Services quarter flagged 2026-07-16, and sets the Q2 dividend against… Compounder · Freight & logistics · Oil, energy & geopolitical catalyst · CVI CVR ENERGY, INC. MEDIUM Frame flipped since the 2026-08-08 note: a refined-products squeeze repriced CVI from $31.15 (2026-08-07) to $39.51 (2026-08-21), 0.6% off the 52-week high, on a record $102.20 diesel crack (2026-08-17) — not a company event. Consensus… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical catalyst · DINO HF Sinclair Corporation MEDIUM Post-print leg extended rather than renewed: a fresh 52-week high at $97.32 (2026-08-21), +40.1% over three months, built on the 2026-07-28 beat ($5.31 vs $4.54), the Lubricants spin-off plan and the 2026-08-11 $5B Western Gateway FID.… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical · M&A & special situations analysed · DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM Record distillate cracks ($102.20/bbl diesel, 2026-08-17) converted a sold-off Q2 beat into a breakout: the 2026-08-21 close of $71.47 was up 11.60% in one session and a 52-week closing high, above the $64.00 12-analyst mean target.… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Managed care & health services catalyst · FTK Flotek Industries, Inc. MEDIUM Legacy oilfield chemistry re-rating into a power/measurement business: Data Analytics hit 51% of gross profit in Q2 2026, the 2026-08-03 PREPA award adds ~$400M of 10-year expected backlog, and the 2026-08-04 guide went to $340–350M from… Special situation · Cyclical industrials · Oil, energy & geopolitical analysed · HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc. MEDIUM Q2 (released 2026-08-10) answered the cash question: EPS $0.59 vs $(0.07) consensus on $272.4M revenue vs $232.2M, and the stock closed 2026-08-21 at $8.32, a 52-week high, versus $7.20 pre-print. The leg being bought now is the harvest… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Small-cap value rotation analysed · IMAX Imax Corp MEDIUM Premium-large-format royalty narrative is maturing rather than breaking: price closed $52.74 on 2026-08-21, 1.8% off the $53.71 high, with RSI(14) cooling 74.5→55.5 since 2026-08-07 as Rosenblatt raised to $60 on 2026-08-10. No company… Compounder · Consumer discretionary rotation · Oil, energy & geopolitical catalyst · LPG Dorian Lpg Ltd MEDIUM Hormuz truce collapsed 2026-07-08 — Iran re-struck shipping and re-closed the Strait, re-firing VLGC rates to fresh 2026 highs (BLPG3 $220/ton, TCE $125k/day, week of Jul 10). This pure-play VLGC name re-accelerated off its $36 late-June… Compounder · Freight & logistics · Oil, energy & geopolitical analysed · NESR National Energy Services Reunited Corp MEDIUM MENA national-oil-company capex via the only US-listed pure play; the 2026-08-05 $300M Kuwait award and the 2026-08-10 Q2 beat ($520.8M vs $446.97M) are fully in the tape. Headline flow stopped after the 2026-08-11 target raises and price… Cyclical recovery · Oil, energy & geopolitical · AI datacenter infrastructure analysed · OII Oceaneering International Inc. MEDIUM Offshore earnings inflection (Q2 adj EBITDA $115M, FY guide $400–440M) is now fully re-rated: Citi's 2026-08-11 raise to $52 puts the anchor target at the tape, closing the sell-side gap that drove the July leg. Price $52.20 on 2026-08-14… Special situation · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Physical AI & robotics catalyst · PBF PBF ENERGY INC. MEDIUM Post-Q2 refining super-margin narrative has matured into a sell-side target chase — Goldman $71 → $81 on 2026-08-18 — while the >10% holder sold five tranches between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-17, the last at $74.79 into the $75.20 high. With… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical catalyst · PNRG PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation MEDIUM Geopolitical crude bid re-fired after the 2026-07-08 US strikes and Hormuz blockade — WTI back to ~$80 from $68.86, PNRG +8.9% MTD to $186.51 and above the 200-day. Structurally better than June: GCX in-service flipped Waha gas positive,… Retail squeeze · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Small-cap value rotation catalyst · ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM Fuel-relief leg replaced by an earnings-delivery leg: the 2026-07-29 Q2 print put adjusted EPS at $(0.10) against a $(0.60)–$(0.45) May guide on record $1,279M revenue, and guided 2H to breakeven-or-better. The catch is that guide assumes… Earnings inflection · Travel & leisure · Oil, energy & geopolitical analysed · VET Vermilion Energy Inc. MEDIUM European gas did the work: TTF above €65/MWh on 2026-08-20 (+~130% YTD) with EU storage at a record-low 57.1% for the date on 2026-08-01, and the shares moved from the 2026-08-07 close of $10.86 to $12.73, now 11.1% under the $14.32 high.… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical catalyst · VG Venture Global, Inc. MEDIUM LNG-export narrative re-accelerating on Europe's winter gas scramble plus a Middle East risk premium; VG ran +23% off the $12 mid-July shelf to $14.31 as Plaquemines ramps and CP2 advances. The 2026-08-11 pre-market Q2 print is the binary… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical · AI datacenter infrastructure analysed · VLO Valero Energy Corporation MEDIUM Refiner crack spreads at a record ~$70/bbl 3-2-1 as a Hormuz/Iran supply shock idles ~10% of global refining; VLO is the pure-play margin leverage and the fundamental leg is accelerating. But sell-side (6 PT raises in 11 days) and CNBC… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Biofuels & low-carbon fuels catalyst · WTTR Select Water Solutions, Inc. MEDIUM Q2 (2026-08-04) underwrote the produced-water re-rate — record $101.6M Water Infrastructure revenue, $92.7M Adjusted EBITDA, EPS $0.17 vs $0.13 — and shares made a new 52-week high $22.18 before easing to $20.86. Consensus PT ~$22.29 is… Special situation · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp. LOW Hormuz beta re-coupled in August: WTI settled $82.40 and Brent $88.52 on 2026-08-14 with the strait still shut, dragging ACDC to $5.37 at RSI 74.4. But the 2026-08-06 Q2 print missed (-$0.44 vs -$0.30), liquidity is ~$72M against $1,083.6M… Earnings inflection · Oil, energy & geopolitical analysed · AESI Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. LOW Frac-sand legacy pivoting to behind-the-meter gas power for AI data centers, but the story is DORMANT and the structure broken: shares fell from $16.73 (6/29) to an $11.96 close (7/24, -8.5%), losing the ~$15 base and $13 shelf on… Special situation · AI datacenter infrastructure · Industrial power & grid analysed · ALHC Alignment Healthcare, Inc. LOW Profitable-MA-disruptor narrative broke on 2026-07-08: a whistleblower suit from a former Chief Transformation Officer alleges the +88% adjusted-EBITDA inflection was manufactured by reclassifying opex as capex across FY2024-25. Shares… Earnings inflection · Managed care & health services · Oil, energy & geopolitical analysed · BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc LOW The August frame's $36 weekly level broke — the week ending 2026-08-21 closed $35.64, retracing the entire 2026-08-13 beat-and-raise reaction ($41.01 premarket, then a −4.02% close at $39.35 on 2026-08-14). Fundamentals still guide to 15%… Defensive · Consumer discretionary rotation · Oil, energy & geopolitical analysed · BSIN Big Sky Industrial Inc. LOW Helium/45Q pivot still on schedule after the 2026-08-11 Q2 print; the 2026-08-20 Sidoti deck added a first Phase 1 EBITDA figure (~$15M/yr). Same day a final 13D/A put Sage Road Capital at 4.9%. Price $1.40 against the $1.43 closing high,… Special situation · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Industrial power & grid analysed · BTE Baytex Energy Corp. LOW July's Hormuz flare re-armed the oil-geopolitical premium, but it has since drained — WTI slipped to the low $70s and the 2026-07-17 sanctions wind-down passed with no barrel shortage, a contained-conflict bid rather than a supply shock.… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical catalyst · CLMT Calumet, Inc. LOW Deleveraging-plus-SAF-ramp re-rate extended to a new 52-week high at $50.81 after the 2026-08-07 Q2 print; Goldman's second raise in 19 days ($45 on 2026-08-18) still lands below the 2026-08-21 close of $49.01. Nothing dated resolves the… Special situation · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Solar & clean energy analysed · CMBT CMB.TECH NV LOW July's non-confirmation resolved upward: CMBT closed 2026-08-14 at $17.24, a 52-week high on the adjusted series, RSI 79.4, into a confirmed 2026-08-27 Q2 print whose rates were pre-disclosed on 2026-05-19 (81% of VLCC days at… Special situation · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Freight & logistics catalyst · EQNR Equinor ASA LOW European winter gas-security theme re-accelerating; Equinor, the swing Norwegian pipeline supplier, held ~$40 through a Q2 double-miss on a $1.125B buyback bid. Defensive · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Cybersecurity catalyst · FAC Factorial Energy Inc. LOW Freshly de-SPAC'd solid-state battery name has fully unwound its debut mania — down ~78% from the $25.33 ATH to ~$5.67, breaking clean through the former $9.26 floor into a fresh 52-week low at $4.24. Cantor's $18 target now sits ~217%… Defensive · Solar & clean energy · Freight & logistics analysed · JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation LOW Fuel-reversion bull leg broke: Brent re-spiked to ~$86 (Jul 17) on renewed Mideast conflict, reversing the sub-$73 tailwind the whole trade needed. Raymond James (Jul 6) cut to Underperform flagging a Chapter 11 that wipes equity; $9.3B… Earnings inflection · Travel & leisure · Consumer discretionary rotation catalyst · KALU Kaiser Aluminum Corporation LOW Section 232 aluminum supply-shock (50% duty through 2027) plus a Q1 earnings inflection already repriced KALU ~+175% YoY to a $195 high; the move is maturing toward saturated with price at/above every published target. The estimated… Special situation · Cyclical industrials · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · KGS Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. LOW Post-print bounce failed: the ~21% rally off the 2026-08-07 low of $53.90 stalled at the 2026-08-14 close of $65.35, and the 2026-08-21 close of $61.46 sits just above the $59 break level. Record Q2 EBITDA and a raised FY26 guide are in… Special situation · Industrial power & grid · AI datacenter infrastructure analysed · KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. LOW Jubilee ramping toward ~90,000 bopd gross (J76 online, J77/J50 imminent) with GTA LNG volumes climbing. Highest-beta E&P expression bounced ~15% off the $2.00 June low; re-accelerating but still a ~$2.30, 'CCC'-rated, most-levered… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical catalyst · LAC Lithium Americas Corp. LOW Post-Q2 bounce failed: the 2026-08-21 close of $3.14 came while the GFEX carbonate benchmark rose to 152,250 CNY/t — commodity up, equity down. The 2026-08-17 S-3ASR registers 72,553,609 Yorkville resale shares, 19.99% of shares… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths · Freight & logistics catalyst · MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation LOW Record refining cracks are already in the tape: Q2 R&M margin $36.33/bbl vs $17.58 YoY and a 29% EPS beat on 2026-08-04, yet the stock closed 2026-08-07 at $298.20 — RSI 37.3, 6.7% under the $319.76 high — while six desks raised targets… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical · AI chips & memory catalyst · NBR Nabors Industries Ltd. LOW Leveraged ~2x oil-beta proxy on the Hormuz war premium, +90% YTD near $100 but now rolling over: Susquehanna cut its target to $85 (2026-07-08) as the sell-side stops chasing, and the ~2026-07-23 Q2 print — the first to lap the premium —… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Managed care & health services catalyst · PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. LOW Record diesel cracks (above $100/bbl mid-August 2026) met a lower tape: the 2026-08-21 close of $79.03 sits 8.1% under the $86.03 high while the company's own July refining index printed $31.34/bbl versus a ~$33 Q2 average. Late-cycle —… Compounder · Oil, energy & geopolitical analysed · PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. LOW Rig-reactivation cyclical is basing, not broken: June averaged 95 US rigs (vs ~90 Q2 guide), the July EIA STEO lifted 2026 Henry Hub to $3.67, gas rigs turned up 122→126, and Piper upgraded to Overweight 07-14. Price bottomed $8.57 (07-01)… Special situation · Oil, energy & geopolitical · AI datacenter infrastructure catalyst · SG Sweetgreen, Inc. LOW The turnaround narrative was retracted by management on 2026-08-06 and repriced by eight desks into a $5.00–$8.50 target band. What has run since — $6.28 on 2026-08-14 to $6.99 on 2026-08-21 — is a ~24.5%-shorted float drifting up in a… Retail squeeze · Consumer discretionary rotation · Squeeze & momentum setups catalyst · USO United States Oil Fund, LP LOW Hormuz has been shut since late February and USO still closed 2026-08-14 at $126.60, 17.2% under its $152.96 high — the market has stopped paying for escalation. The 2026-08-12 EIA +17.423M bbl build and OPEC's demand-growth cut to 580K… Earnings inflection · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Freight & logistics catalyst · WHD Cactus, Inc. LOW International wellhead order narrative from the 2026-07-29 Q2 beat is intact, but the re-rating leg is largely spent: Citigroup cut to Neutral on 2026-08-20 while raising its target to $75, and the shares closed $69.43 on 2026-08-21, 5.8%… Cyclical recovery · Oil, energy & geopolitical · AI datacenter infrastructure catalyst ·