Filtered library · Theme
Oil, energy & geopolitical theme · 54 dossiers
Dossiers in the Oil, energy & geopolitical theme cluster — 54 names moving on shared catalysts.
Theme runProduced by the theme run on 10 September 2026, maturing.
All 54 are dated research with a published kill line — the level named in advance that would prove the call wrong.
All dossiers UGP Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. fresh HIGH The operating leg has printed and only the undated Ipiranga stake sale is left to underwrite the premium: the 2026-08-28 close of $6.45 sits 2.0% under the $6.58 52-week high with RSI(14) 69.2 after a 30.2% three-month advance built… CVI CVR ENERGY, INC. MEDIUM CVR Energy’s refining thesis is that Hormuz disruption lifts reported margins above second-quarter 2026’s $9.94 per throughput barrel. Third-quarter results test that inference; a weekly close below $39 invalidates the price structure. DINO HF Sinclair Corporation fresh MEDIUM Refining-crack plus break-up story now trades above nearly every published mark: the 2026-09-04 close of $105.41 sits 0.7% under the 52-week high with RSI(14) at 70.0 against a sixteen-analyst average target of $83.42. No company-dated… DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Record distillate cracks still carry the leg: EIA reported a fourth straight distillate draw (−2.2M bbl, week ended 2026-08-21, released 2026-08-26) with refineries at 97.4%, and the 2026-08-28 close of $72.25 was a 52-week high. But the… FTK Flotek Industries, Inc. MEDIUM Legacy oilfield chemistry re-rating into a power/measurement business: Data Analytics hit 51% of gross profit in Q2 2026, the 2026-08-03 PREPA award adds ~$400M of 10-year expected backlog, and the 2026-08-04 guide went to $340–350M from… HP Helmerich & Payne, Inc. MEDIUM Land-drilling activity re-rating on a geopolitical crude move: Brent $95.25 on 2026-09-03 (+42% y/y) with the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q3 print delivering $1.034B revenue vs $988.74M consensus, 147 Lower 48 rigs working and a raised Q4 guide of… LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM Premium-club compounder re-rating as the 2021-IPO sponsors clear out: comps +9.1% and FY2026 guidance raised on 2026-07-30, then Leonard Green placed 5.1M shares at $43.16 on 2026-08-10 and dropped below 5%. Price now sits on that… PBF PBF ENERGY INC. MEDIUM Record diesel cracks ($108.02 intraday, 2026-09-01) met a stalled tape: the adjusted series closed 2026-09-04 at $74.34, 1.5% under its $75.48 high with RSI 48.7, while the >10% holder resumed selling on 2026-09-02 at $76.94–$77.09. A… PSX Phillips 66 fresh MEDIUM Hormuz-driven refining-margin blowout is the leg: Q2 2026 realized refining margin $24.08/bbl vs $10.11 in Q1, adjusted EPS $9.41 vs $7.44 consensus, plus a $10B buyback expansion (2026-08-05). The narrative is maturing — well known since… STLN Starling Oncology, Inc. MEDIUM Value-based oncology pivot repriced on the 2026-08-06 Q2 print: revenue $161.3M (+34.6% YoY), gross profit +55.2%, first positive adjusted EBITDA (+$229K), FY26 guide raised to $650–670M. The capitated/delegated-risk ramp is the leg, but… VLO Valero Energy Corporation fresh MEDIUM Refiner crack spreads at a record ~$70/bbl 3-2-1 as a Hormuz/Iran supply shock idles ~10% of global refining; VLO is the pure-play margin leverage and the fundamental leg is accelerating. But sell-side (6 PT raises in 11 days) and CNBC… AESI Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. fresh LOW Frac-sand legacy pivoting to behind-the-meter gas power for AI data centers, but the story is DORMANT and the structure broken: shares fell from $16.73 (6/29) to an $11.96 close (7/24, -8.5%), losing the ~$15 base and $13 shelf on… AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. LOW Alpha Metallurgical Resources’ coal-supply-shock thesis requires stronger third-quarter realized pricing before August support breaks. Realization above the second quarter’s $118.71 per short ton would confirm transmission; a weekly close… MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation LOW Record refining cracks are already in the tape: Q2 R&M margin $36.33/bbl vs $17.58 YoY and a 29% EPS beat on 2026-08-04, yet the stock closed 2026-08-07 at $298.20 — RSI 37.3, 6.7% under the $319.76 high — while six desks raised targets… PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. fresh LOW Rig-reactivation cyclical is basing, not broken: June averaged 95 US rigs (vs ~90 Q2 guide), the July EIA STEO lifted 2026 Henry Hub to $3.67, gas rigs turned up 122→126, and Piper upgraded to Overweight 07-14. Price bottomed $8.57 (07-01)… WTI W&T Offshore, Inc. fresh MEDIUM W&T Offshore’s oil-to-cash recovery case now tests a daily close at or above the market’s $4.89 trailing-year high before a daily close below $3.55 invalidates it. The 2026-09-09 close of $4.06 satisfies the prior $4.01 recovery hurdle;… ARIS Aris Mining Corporation HIGH Two-asset Colombian gold producer earning $1,767/oz Segovia AISC against a $4,450/oz realized price (Q2, reported 2026-07-29); the leg being bought is the volume step toward ~500 koz/yr, gated on the 5,000 tpd Marmato CIP plant delivering… ALGT Allegiant Travel Company MEDIUM Allegiant closed the $1.5B Sun Country acquisition (2026-05-13) to become the largest US leisure airline just as fuel flipped to a tailwind and the whole sell-side re-rated it to $142–$160; the move has more than doubled off the low, and… BTU Peabody Energy Corporation MEDIUM Centurion is the whole company-specific leg: seaborne met printed $(17.0)M adjusted EBITDA on 2.5Mt in Q2 while the full-year Centurion target was cut to 2.0–2.5Mt on 2026-07-29, against group EBITDA of $24.0M. Thermal segments fund the… BWLP BW LPG Limited MEDIUM Financing leg resolved: $300M of 2.25% convertibles placed 2026-09-02, conversion price $30.4870 at a 40% premium, part-funding the $940M eight-ship HD Hyundai order without issuing shares at spot — and the stock still closed at a 52-week… CLMT Calumet, Inc. MEDIUM The eleven-week catalyst gap closed in 48 hours: 2026-09-01 cut remaining MaxSAF capital to $137M from a $1.2B plan, 2026-09-02 EPA small-refinery exemptions removed 71M RINs worth ~$170M.C. Wainwright's $75 (from $60) became the first… CMBT CMB.TECH NV MEDIUM The 2026-09-03 half-year came and went and the tape extended through it: a 52-week closing high of $19.49 on 2026-09-04, RSI(14) 77.2, with no new company release on the US wire since 2026-08-27. What is left of the leg is $231.4M of… HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. MEDIUM Against it, Q2 index realization fell to 66% of Platts PLV from 80%. The narrative is maturing — priced into guidance since 2026-08-05, with no company-dated event before the ~2026-10-30 print. HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc. MEDIUM The post-print harvest-half story is intact but the flow behind it has thinned: HPK closed 2026-08-28 at $8.10, 2.6% under the 2026-08-21 high of $8.32, with RSI(14) back to 52.5 from 65.4, while WTI quoted $83.44. No company-dated event… IMAX Imax Corp MEDIUM Premium-large-format royalty narrative is maturing: a second target above spot arrived (B. Riley $61, 2026-08-24) and shares set a $54.79 high, then gave back 8.0% to close $50.38 on 2026-08-28 as The Dog Stars opened to roughly $8M… NESR National Energy Services Reunited Corp MEDIUM MENA national-oil-company capex via the only US-listed pure play, re-rated by the 2026-08-05 $300M Kuwait award and the 2026-08-10 Q2 beat ($520.8M vs $446.97M). Both are fully in the tape: no sell-side target has moved since 2026-08-13,… NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. MEDIUM Geopolitical crude leg — WTI $92.09 on 2026-09-03 after Hormuz tanker strikes — is repricing a levered non-op E&P that still trades 12.7% below its $29.64 52-week high. Q2 delivered $159M free cash flow and a buyback at a $20.37 average,… OII Oceaneering International Inc. MEDIUM The offshore EBITDA inflection is intact — FY adjusted EBITDA guided $400–440M — but the 2026-09-04 close of $51.40 sits above the $46 four-analyst consensus target with zero Buy ratings, and RSI(14) has decayed to 36.7 from 47.7 on 08-28.… PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM Distillate scarcity is still deepening — inventories 107.1 Mbbl for the week ended 2026-08-07, reported as the lowest for the date since 1996 — and the 2026-08-25 Laramie agreement adds a non-crack cash lever, roughly $146M expected to… PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM A cat-light Atlantic season and three FY26 guidance raises carried the reference close to $136.58 on 2026-09-04, 5.7% under the $144.79 high, with RSI(14) at 74.9 and no company-dated catalyst until the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. The 2026-09-10… PNRG PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation MEDIUM Geopolitical crude bid re-fired after the 2026-07-08 US strikes and Hormuz blockade — WTI back to ~$80 from $68.86, PNRG +8.9% MTD to $186.51 and above the 200-day. Structurally better than June: GCX in-service flipped Waha gas positive,… ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM Fuel-relief leg replaced by an earnings-delivery leg: the 2026-07-29 Q2 print put adjusted EPS at $(0.10) against a $(0.60)–$(0.45) May guide on record $1,279M revenue, and guided 2H to breakeven-or-better. The catch is that guide assumes… USO United States Oil Fund, LP MEDIUM The driver rotated: Rubio's 2026-08-25 shift from strikes to sanctions drained the escalation bid, but EIA's 0.095M bbl crude build vs 1.600M expected (08-26) and oil rigs -5 to 447 vs 454 est (08-28) carried USO to $129.70. The narrative… VET Vermilion Energy Inc. MEDIUM European gas made new highs without the equity: TTF printed a three-year high above €68/MWh on 2026-08-25 while the shares closed 2026-08-28 at $12.46, below their 2026-08-21 close and 13.0% under the $14.32 high. With 58% of European gas… VG Venture Global, Inc. MEDIUM LNG-export narrative re-accelerating on Europe's winter gas scramble plus a Middle East risk premium; VG ran +23% off the $12 mid-July shelf to $14.31 as Plaquemines ramps and CP2 advances. The 2026-08-11 pre-market Q2 print is the binary… ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp. LOW Brent pushed above $96 on 2026-09-03 as the US resumed strikes on Iran and Hormuz transit fell to roughly 4.9 mb/d, yet ACDC closed $5.15 on 2026-09-04, still under its 2026-08-14 close of $5.37. The crude-beta leg has now failed on two… BRKR Bruker Corporation LOW Post-ASMS instrument re-rate broke back toward the $64.54 high and added a second leg: semiconductor-metrology strength (orders +20% YoY) pulled Leerink to $70 and top targets to $65–70. But at ~$62 the name sits ~13% over its 50-DMA and… BSIN Big Sky Industrial Inc. LOW Helium/45Q legacy pivot at a new high — $1.54 on 2026-09-04, 2.5% off the $1.58 52-week high — with no company disclosure since the 2026-08-20 Sidoti deck, leaving a maturing narrative whose next dated test is the Q3 print (~2026-11-10).… BTE Baytex Energy Corp. LOW July's Hormuz flare re-armed the oil-geopolitical premium, but it has since drained — WTI slipped to the low $70s and the 2026-07-17 sanctions wind-down passed with no barrel shortage, a contained-conflict bid rather than a supply shock.… EQNR Equinor ASA LOW European winter gas-security theme re-accelerating; Equinor, the swing Norwegian pipeline supplier, held ~$40 through a Q2 double-miss on a $1.125B buyback bid. INHD Inno Holdings Inc. LOW The residual balance-sheet case broke on its own published level: the 2026-09-04 weekly close of $4.53 is under the $4.75 flagged on 2026-08-29, and the CFO who signed the 2026-08-18 10-Q left the board and the finance seat effective… JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation LOW Fuel-reversion bull leg broke: Brent re-spiked to ~$86 (Jul 17) on renewed Mideast conflict, reversing the sub-$73 tailwind the whole trade needed. Raymond James (Jul 6) cut to Underperform flagging a Chapter 11 that wipes equity; $9.3B… KGS Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. LOW Legacy-pivot repricing has stalled into a four-week range: the 2026-09-04 close of $62.59 sits between the 2026-08-10 low of $59.72 and the 2026-08-14 close of $65.35, with no company press release since 2026-08-06 and no dated catalyst… KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. LOW Jubilee ramping toward ~90,000 bopd gross (J76 online, J77/J50 imminent) with GTA LNG volumes climbing. Highest-beta E&P expression bounced ~15% off the $2.00 June low; re-accelerating but still a ~$2.30, 'CCC'-rated, most-levered… LAC Lithium Americas Corp. LOW The $3.00 shelf held to the tick — the 2026-09-04 weekly close printed exactly $3.00 while the lithium carbonate benchmark sat at 152,000 CNY/t, +8.38% on the month and +102.7% year-on-year (Trading Economics). With roughly 67.3M Yorkville… NBR Nabors Industries Ltd. LOW Leveraged ~2x oil-beta proxy on the Hormuz war premium, +90% YTD near $100 but now rolling over: Susquehanna cut its target to $85 (2026-07-08) as the sell-side stops chasing, and the ~2026-07-23 Q2 print — the first to lap the premium —… NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. LOW The 2026-07-21 beat-and-raise has round-tripped: the 2026-08-14 weekly close of $31.71 is under the $32 post-print shelf, BMO cut to Market Perform on 2026-07-30, and the CFO sold 100,000 shares into $30.74–$32.12 on Aug 12–13. Operations… WHD Cactus, Inc. LOW International wellhead order narrative from the 2026-07-29 Q2 beat is intact, but the re-rating leg is largely spent: Citigroup cut to Neutral on 2026-08-20 while raising its target to $75, and the shares closed $69.43 on 2026-08-21, 5.8%… WTTR Select Water Solutions, Inc. LOW Contracted produced-water midstream re-rate is intact on fundamentals — the 2026-08-18 amendment extended the Northern Delaware agreement 12 years across ~875,000 acres and JP Morgan initiated Overweight at $24 on 2026-08-21 — but shares… YAAS Youxin Technology Ltd LOW Prior coverage's $2.50 break level is gone — the 2026-08-28 close was $2.14. The 2026-08-27 H1 print delivered the first real revenue line in this name (+444% to $1.88M, 41% gross margin) and no bid followed it; cash halved to $4.55M… GPRK Geopark Limited fresh NONE PBR PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE) fresh NONE SM SM Energy Company fresh NONE SSL Sasol Limited fresh NONE