Filtered library · Archetype
Defensive · 72 dossiers
Dossiers classified as Defensive — 72 names, each with its thesis, invalidation trigger and catalyst calendar.
All 72 are dated research with a published kill line — the level named in advance that would prove the call wrong.
All dossiers OKTA Okta, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme… ATEX Anterix Inc. fresh LOW Anterix's spectrum-conversion thesis requires another utility agreement with disclosed payments before a weekly close below $85.31 invalidates it. The 2026-09-09 daily close of $83.93 is below that reference but does not itself establish a… LSTR Landstar System, Inc. fresh LOW Landstar System's truckload repricing needs to produce further earnings improvement. The 2026-10-27 results confirm the case if truck revenue per load grows year over year and earnings per share exceed Q2's $1.44 before a weekly close… DCTH Delcath Systems, Inc. HIGH Self-funded liver-directed procedure ramp — Q2 revenue $29.133M, 90% gross margin, FY26 guide $104–108M — is now trading on calendar rather than data: the public record ends at the 2026-08-31 conference release, the 2026-09-04 close of… SIBN SI-BONE, Inc. HIGH Momentum reset without a price give-back: since the 2026-08-03 Q2 beat ($56.01M, +15.2% YoY; FY26 floor raised to $231M) price has held the reclaimed $17.05 shelf, closing $19.21 on 2026-08-28 while RSI(14) unwound from 72.0 to 55.1. The… ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation MEDIUM clonoSEQ MRD pure-play inflecting to self-funding growth (MRD rev +53% YoY, profitability turning); June 15 Immune Medicine separation adds a value-unlock leg. But the tape just broke to fresh 52-wk highs (~$22.92) above the $20–22… ASTH Astrana Health Inc. MEDIUM Full-risk value-based-care compounder: the 2026-08-06 Q2 raised FY adjusted EBITDA guidance to $255–280M on 49% revenue growth, but revenue missed at $972.5M vs $985.7M consensus and the shares sit 22.8% under the $49.81 high. Truist $55… ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MEDIUM The post-print re-rate topped at an all-time closing high of $64.43 on 2026-08-24 and faded 7.2% to $59.78 by 2026-08-28, with no broker revision since 2026-08-14 and a second Form 4 disposal (director, 2026-08-28) after the CEO's 100,000… FBIZ First Business Financial Services, Inc. MEDIUM Post-2026-07-30 re-rating in a micro-cap Wisconsin business bank: Q2 EPS $1.84 vs $1.54 consensus, NIM +22bp to 3.78%, record $19.8M pre-provision earnings, followed by target raises to $74 (KBW), $80 (DA Davidson) and $84 (Piper). Shares… FIGS FIGS, Inc. MEDIUM The post-print shelf resolved upward: the 2026-08-28 close of $15.42 sits 8.1% above the 2026-08-07 mark of $14.26 and 9.9% under the $17.12 52-week high, with no company-dated news since the 2026-08-07 target revisions. The re-rating off… HBB Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company MEDIUM Tariff-reversal re-rating that has stopped extending: a $36.5M IEEPA refund lifted Q2 gross margin to 54.3% from 27.5% (print 2026-08-05), but ex-refund margin was 26.1% and FY2026 operating profit is still guided to a high-single-digit… KRO Kronos Worldwide, Inc. MEDIUM Post-print re-rating extended rather than faded: the 2026-08-28 close of $8.80 sits 1.2% under a new $8.91 52-week high after Deutsche Bank raised its target to $9 from $6 on 2026-08-25 with a Buy — the first published target above the… KRT Karat Packaging Inc. MEDIUM Tariff-refund re-rating has stalled within 1.4% of the $49.80 52-week high: the 2026-08-28 close of $49.11 leaves Lake Street's $50 as the last published target above the market, RSI(14) has cooled from 78.4 to 58.2 without a lower low,… LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. MEDIUM Guidance-durability re-rating broke to new highs — the 2026-09-04 close of $39.85 (+5.67% on the session) versus $34.16 on 2026-08-21, 52-week high $40.97 — with the only dated company event inside 30 days the CEO's 2026-09-09 Goldman… MTW The Manitowoc Company, Inc. MEDIUM Manitowoc's crane-order recovery supports its re-rating if Q3 backlog holds at least $1,050.1 million and raised 2026 profit guidance survives. A weekly close below $18 invalidates the price thesis; the Q3 reporting date remains… NVCT Nuvectis Pharma, Inc. MEDIUM Nuvectis re-rated on the 2026-06-22 Haisco ex-China in-license and the 2026-07-23 China approval of oral Factor B inhibitor ciprocopan; Nothing binary lands inside 30 days — only conference slots on 09-11 and 09-14, against RSI 72.3 and a… SGMT Sagimet Biosciences Inc. Series A MEDIUM IND clearance (2026-08-13) has converted into a schedule: sites identified, CRO engaged, AURORA screening from October 2026, first patient shortly after (2026-08-25). Price closed at the 52-week high of $10.99 on 2026-09-02 with RSI(14)… EOLS Evolus, Inc. LOW Margin-inflection re-rating has run to a new 52-week high — the 2026-09-04 close of $9.30 is +39.2% over three months with RSI(14) at 80.6 — on no company news since the 2026-08-05 Q2 print. FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. LOW Narrative and price have fully decoupled: FLY stacked a $144M CLPS award, a Moon BASE seat and a $13M Mars subcontract into a -47% drawdown, falling 9.6% on 7/16 on the awards headline itself. At $19.27 vs a $45 IPO price and 31% below the… PAYS Paysign, Inc. LOW The momentum leg has broken while the fundamental leg stays untested: the shares gave back 11.4% from the $14.14 high to a 2026-09-02 close of $12.53, RSI(14) 44.2 from 96.7 on 2026-08-21, after the 2026-08-26–27 Midwest IDEAS appearance… RCEL Avita Medical, Inc. LOW Small-cap wound-care turnaround with a dated profitability inflection: the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise lifted FY2026 guidance to $86-89M and put Q4 2026 on the calendar for cash-flow breakeven, and the 2026-08-18 PermeaDerm-I readout pulled… SENS Senseonics Holdings, Inc. LOW Only year-long implantable CGM, clinically de-risked at ADA 2026 with revenue +71.9% YoY TTM — and the tape has spent six weeks grinding back toward the $4.79 post-catalyst low ($5.11 on Jul 17). Accelerating fundamentals against a broken… SPIR Spire Global, Inc. LOW The two largest awards of the cycle — EUMETSAT ~€4M on 2026-08-25 and a two-year $28M NOAA HyMS contract on 2026-08-26 — landed into a lower close: $13.17 on 08-28 versus $13.94 on 08-21, with RSI(14) falling from 63.8 to 39.7 in a week.… ATI ATI Inc. fresh MEDIUM Titanium/superalloy aero-defense supplier digesting a June breakout above the reclaimed $183.30 ATH shelf: ~9% off the $204.09 high, RSI cooled to ~66, consensus PT $200.33 back above spot. Q2 lands 2026-08-06; peer CRS prints 2026-07-30… BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. fresh LOW Butterfly Embedded chip-licensing story got marquee validation — Midjourney's up-to-$74M/5yr full-body scanner on 40 Ultrasound-on-Chip modules (2026-06-18) plus 2nd partner Aleph Neuro (2026-06-25). Fundamentals still accelerating, but… KYMR Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. fresh LOW Oral STAT6 degrader (KT-621) re-rated on early BROADEN2 enrollment (6/25) and the $10.9B AbbVie–Apogee read-through, but the analyst upgrade cycle topped with RBC's 7/13 downgrade to neutral and the binary topline is 2H-2026 — a maturing,… SYRE Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. fresh LOW Two of three lead binaries (SPY001, SPY002 anti-TL1A) printed potential best-in-class; the stock absorbed a ~$399.7M director-fund block sale and sits back near its ~$102 ATH (~$95). Next legs — SPY003 IL-23 Part A (guided mid-2026,… TNGX Tango Therapeutics, Inc. fresh LOW Post-data digestion, not acceleration: the 92% ORR combo print is fully paid for and the tape has faded from $32.90 to ~$27.7, below the $30.00 June secondary. Sell-side keeps marking up (JPM Overweight $46 on 7/15, Mizuho $40 on 7/17)… ANDG Andersen Group Inc. MEDIUM Post-IPO roll-up re-rate that survived its binary: Q2 revenue $217.7M beat $199.3M on 2026-08-12 and FY2026 was affirmed at $980M–$1.0B, with four target raises to $49–57 on 2026-08-13. The print is behind it and no dated catalyst sits… AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. MEDIUM Q2 (2026-07-29) cleared the binary without breaking the plan: >200 driverless trucks and ~$80M exit run-rate reaffirmed, FY26 revenue guided $14–16M, ~$1.2B cash after a $215M net ATM raise. Price reclaimed the broken ~$6.00 June shelf to… CBLL CeriBell, Inc. MEDIUM The NTAP-funded delirium leg is intact but the flow behind it has thinned — no headline, estimate or target action since BTIG's $30 on 2026-08-18, RSI(14) off 86.0 (08-21) to 78.1 at the 2026-08-28 close of $23.73, still 4.7% under the… CSTL Castle Biosciences, Inc. MEDIUM The repair leg stalled rather than broke: $34.20 on 2026-08-21 to $32.91 on 2026-09-04, with no company release dated between the 08-20 conference notice and 09-04, while TissueCypher (+64% YoY in Q2) still carries the story. The… EVER EverQuote, Inc. MEDIUM The 2026-08-03 Q2 print resolved the plateau binary bullish: revenue $195.1M (+25% YoY) broke the three-quarter ~$190M band, adjusted EBITDA hit a record $30.1M, and Q3 was guided $198–208M above the $201.6M consensus. The leg is now… FLYW Flywire Corporation Voting MEDIUM Execution re-rating rather than a thematic bid: the 2026-08-04 Q2 print delivered TPV $8.2B (+38.2%) and a raised FY guide of 21–27% FX-neutral growth, and five desks marked targets up between 2026-08-05 and 2026-08-31. Price sits 5.1%… GCT GigaCloud Technology Inc MEDIUM Back at the high on flow rather than news: the 2026-08-28 close of $52.95 is 0.6% under the 2026-08-07 high of $53.25, yet RSI(14) reads 54.1 against 85.9 at that high and no company headline has landed since the 2026-08-06 Q2 beat… HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. MEDIUM Against it, Q2 index realization fell to 66% of Platts PLV from 80%. The narrative is maturing — priced into guidance since 2026-08-05, with no company-dated event before the ~2026-10-30 print. IBTA Ibotta, Inc. MEDIUM One print re-rated the name: 2026-08-03 Q2 revenue $88.905M vs $80.062M consensus, adj EPS $0.46 vs a $(0.30) estimate, Q3 guided $86–90M vs $83.376M est. Shares gapped 21.72% on 2026-08-04 and closed 2026-09-04 at $38.39, 1.2% off the… KNSA Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc MEDIUM Post-print commercial re-rating has stopped receiving new information: the $980–995M FY26 ARCALYST guidance raise is 33 days old, no sell-side target has moved since 2026-07-30, and the 2026-08-12 fireside produced no number. Price closed… LILA Liberty Latin America Ltd. MEDIUM Break-up leg holds: the adjusted series set a 52-week high of $8.77 after Morgan Stanley's 2026-08-20 cut to Underweight $7.00, and price closed $8.52 on 2026-09-04. But the flow behind the story has thinned — no company-dated headline… MNTN MNTN, Inc. MEDIUM The post-Q2 profitability-crossover re-rating held rather than extended: the 2026-08-28 close was $13.23 versus $12.90 a week earlier while RSI(14) cooled from 91.4 to 73.2. A 2026-08-21 Texas order denying MNTN's motion to dismiss Alpha… PK Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. MEDIUM BMO's 2026-09-01 upgrade to Outperform ($14→$18) was the first rating change of the cycle, but the tape did not follow: PK closed 2026-09-04 at $15.26, back on the $15.32 shelf it cleared in August and 5.6% under the $16.17 high, with… PRM Perimeter Solutions, Inc. MEDIUM Monopoly wildfire retardant (PHOS-CHEK) into a season at national Preparedness Level 5 — 3.85M acres burned YTD (NIFC, 7/18), ~157% of the 10-yr average. JPM initiated Overweight $50 on 7/9, lifting the 4-analyst average target to $45.… SEPN Septerna, Inc. MEDIUM Post-print breakout failed: the 2026-09-04 weekly close of $36.75 lost the $38 shelf top and put price back inside the July $33.10–$38.04 range, RSI(14) at 15.3, with no adverse company news since the 2026-08-10 Q2 beat. Six broker targets… TNXP Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. MEDIUM Tonmya's second full launch quarter printed ~$11.0M net sales and 12,592 prescriptions (+100% QoQ) on 2026-08-10, roughly 1.75x the $7.723M revenue consensus, while the stock closed 2026-09-04 at $13.14 — 57.9% under its $31.21 52-week… VIA Via Transportation, Inc. MEDIUM Busted-IPO transit-software re-rating, now a month past its trigger: the 2026-08-06 beat-and-raise carried the shares from $19.41 (2026-07-31) to $28.13 (2026-09-04), but the pace has slowed to +4.2% over the ten sessions since 2026-08-21… XGN Exagen Inc. MEDIUM Post-print re-rating off the 2026-08-04 Q2 beat (revenue $19.941M vs $17.817M consensus, FY26 guide lifted to $72–75M) is now digesting rather than extending: $7.92 on 2026-08-21 to $7.58 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) cooling from 86.7 to… AMBQ Ambiq Micro, Inc. LOW Q2 (2026-08-11) net sales $33.9M, +89.7% YoY and a $36–37M Q3 guide above the $34.0M Street have bought nothing: the 2026-09-04 close of $57.45 sits 36.5% under the $90.48 high with RSI(14) at 31.7. A Form 4 filed 2026-09-02 shows the CEO… ARHS Arhaus, Inc. LOW The $9.00 weekly-close level that defined the post-2026-08-06 repricing has gone: the week ending 2026-08-28 closed at $8.98 with no new company disclosure, leaving the +12.5% written-comp inflection intact on paper but unbid. Two… AUTL Autolus Therapeutics plc LOW The post-raise re-rating has stalled. After the 2026-08-03 guidance raise to $140–150M and the 2026-08-11 Q2 beat ($45.7M vs $34.0M consensus), the shares set a $2.54 52-week high and then closed $2.24 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) back at… AVR Anteris Technologies Global Corp. LOW Post-catalyst drift: the CMS/first-patient/France de-risking sequence is spent, and Q2 (reported 2026-08-12) missed both lines — EPS $(0.30) vs $(0.21), revenue $1.009M vs $1.500M — yet the 2026-08-14 close held $9.40 with RSI 66.9.… BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc LOW The $36 weekly break played through: the last completed close was $34.00 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) at 28.4, leaving the May 2026 low of $31.12 as the only structure left in the fiscal-year range. Guidance still reads 15% cc growth and… BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. LOW Gen-3 subscription ramp landed in Q2 (2026-08-06): revenue $33.316M vs $30.68M est, +50% YoY, adjusted EBITDA $4.7M, FY26 guide affirmed at $130–150M. But EPS missed at $(0.54) vs $(0.36), cash is $36.9M against a $50–60M capex guide, and… BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. LOW The $10.40 weekly-close shelf broke by a cent on 2026-09-04 at $10.39, with RSI(14) at 52.6 — a reset from drift rather than from a bid. The company news room has been silent on corporate items since the 2026-08-04 Q3 EBITDA cut to… BROS Dutch Bros Inc. LOW Drive-thru coffee comps re-accelerating (Q1 +8.3%, FY guide raised) and the sell-side is now catching up — Stephens initiated Overweight $80, Morgan Stanley to $88 in mid-July. But June's run to ~$72 cooled to the mid-$60s, and the… CVLG Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. LOW The margin-inflection leg broke at its own catalyst: Q2 (2026-07-29) adjusted OR 95.9% vs 94.6% PY — second straight quarter of YoY deterioration — revenue $332.9M missed $340.4M, and Stephens cut its 23-day-old target to $54 on 07-31.… DXCM DexCom, Inc. LOW CGM leader's recovery has aged from catalyst-pop to an analyst-revision grind — Mizuho $90 (7/15), Truist $87 (7/16) into a ~7% two-day pop to $76.65 — but price is high-$70s still under the 200-EMA and the confirmed July 30 Q2 print is… EQNR Equinor ASA LOW European winter gas-security theme re-accelerating; Equinor, the swing Norwegian pipeline supplier, held ~$40 through a Q2 double-miss on a $1.125B buyback bid. FAC Factorial Energy Inc. LOW Freshly de-SPAC'd solid-state battery name has fully unwound its debut mania — down ~78% from the $25.33 ATH to ~$5.67, breaking clean through the former $9.26 floor into a fresh 52-week low at $4.24. Cantor's $18 target now sits ~217%… FRD Friedman Industries Inc. LOW Tariff-driven HRC steel prices at multi-year highs powered record FY2026 (EPS $2.76, sales +46%); FRD hit an all-time-high close $37.42 on 2026-06-18 and was flagged overbought the same day. The narrative is maturing and priced near the… KMTS Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd. LOW WCD share-capture story intact on fundamentals — FY26 revenue $95.1M (+59%), fiscal Q4 gross margin 54.8% — but the bid has thinned: the close was $25.64 on 2026-08-28, 9.6% under the $28.35 52-week high, with RSI(14) at 13.5 against 67.8… LILAK Liberty Latin America Ltd. LOW Post-catalyst drift: the $500M preferred special dividend and the June Malone/Nair insider cluster already drove a ~70% run off $4.76 to ~$8.30, and the tape has stalled at $7.33. Citi cut to Neutral 2026-07-10 with a $8 target already… LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. LOW The post-print fade has extended: after the 2026-08-03 beat carried price to a $34.48 high, LIND closed $29.59 on 2026-08-28 with RSI(14) at 29.3 and no company-dated event before the ~2026-11-03 (est.) Q3 print. The occupancy/pricing… MAMA Mama's Creations, Inc. LOW The 2026-09-03 binary resolved for the fundamentals and against the tape: Q2 FY2027 revenue $54.58M (+55%) and EPS $0.06 both beat, gross margin recovered to 24.0% from 23.6%, and the shares still closed 2026-09-04 at $15.16, below the… NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. LOW The published $16 break fired: the week ending 2026-09-04 closed at $15.57, the second failed shelf in sixteen days after $18 gave way on 2026-08-20. Crude drove both — WTI settled $91.48 on 2026-09-01 — and with RSI(14) at 17.3, no… NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. LOW The 2026-07-21 beat-and-raise has round-tripped: the 2026-08-14 weekly close of $31.71 is under the $32 post-print shelf, BMO cut to Market Perform on 2026-07-30, and the CFO sold 100,000 shares into $30.74–$32.12 on Aug 12–13. Operations… ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. LOW Freight-cycle recovery in the top-margin LTL name is drawing a broadening upgrade cluster now printing above spot (Stifel $256 Jul 21, Truist $250 Jul 15, RJ $241 Jul 13), but growth is still rate and mix with tons/day negative. The… OEC Orion S.A. LOW Deep-cyclical carbon black where the 2024–25 tire-restock leg already failed (-32.5% from the $10.72 52-week high). What is left is a trough-and-deleverage read: Q2 2026 adj. EBITDA $58.2M (+26% sequential, -15% YoY), FY26 guide reaffirmed… PSQL Pasqal Holding SA LOW Newly listed neutral-atom quantum pure-play: the 2026-08-27 de-SPAC left ~$360M cash against €16.5M of 2025 commercial revenue, and the 2026-08-28 debut close of $19.11 has round-tripped to $7.96 on 2026-09-04. Attention is fresh — KACST… SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. LOW Post-print fade extends: the 2026-08-04 beat (op EPS $1.30 vs $1.17, 89.5% combined, 19% operating ROE) and four target raises to $65–$75 have been met by a lower tape — $58.29 on 2026-08-28, 11.2% under the $65.63 high, RSI 36.5 versus… SNDR Schneider National, Inc. LOW The 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise (adj EPS $0.29 vs $0.23 consensus; FY26 guide lifted to $0.90–$1.10) has been fully given back — the 2026-08-28 close of $34.44 is 10.9% under the 2026-06-08 high and sits 1.3% above the $34 shelf. The… SVV Savers Value Village, Inc. LOW Busted-IPO thrift retailer's June recovery has stalled and rolled back toward its ~$9 base as the June 27 Russell-deletion passive-bid loss bites; the July 30 Q2 print is now an imminent, FX-exposed binary rather than a five-weeks-away… WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. LOW Q2 on 2026-08-26 resolved the binary bullish — comp +6.2%, non-GAAP EPS $2.10 vs $2.08 est., FY comp guide raised to +4.0%–+6.5% and margin guide to 17.8%–18.2% — and seven desks moved targets into a $240–$270 band. The 2026-08-28 close of…