BMA · Banco Macro S.A.

The thesis

Banco Macro's recovery case remains broken: the shares closed at $64.33 on 21 October 2026, below the $65.90 close of 8 October 2026 and well under the $72 weekly level that failed in September. The third-quarter credit report, expected around 18 November 2026, settles whether bad loans are rising. A recovery case needs a weekly close above the 4 September 2026 reference close of $78.57.

The narrative is dead in its August recovery form: the story broke with the $68.86 close on 25 September 2026, and no new buying has appeared since. The close is 36.5% below the 52-week high of $101.37, and the three-month change is -27.8% (adjusted daily closes, 21 October 2026). Argentina's September inflation report on 13 October 2026 did not supply the missing lift. UBS kept its Buy rating that day but cut its price target to $90 (company news, 13 October 2026).

Bullish and bearish views on Banco Macro S.A.

The bull case on Banco Macro S.A. (BMA), in brief: Capital and liquidity are large. The bear case: Price has made no recovery.

Bull case

• Capital and liquidity are large. Banco Macro's second-quarter 2026 release (Form 6-K, 19 August 2026) reported a Tier 1 capital ratio of 28% and liquid assets equal to 74% of deposits. These buffers matter most if sovereign stress deepens.
• A major broker still rates it Buy. UBS maintained Buy and lowered its price target to $90 on 13 October 2026 (company news). That target sits well above the $64.33 close of 21 October 2026, though a lower target shows the broker trimmed its view.
• Selling momentum has eased. The 14-day relative strength index, a 0-to-100 gauge of recent buying versus selling, was 46.9 on 21 October 2026, up from 26.8 on 8 October 2026. The shares are no longer in the heavily oversold zone.
• Inflation remains far below earlier years. INDEC, Argentina's statistics agency, reported September consumer prices up 1.9% month on month, after 1.7% in August, with core inflation at 1.7% (iProUP, 13 October 2026). Regulated prices drove much of the rise.

Bear case

• Price has made no recovery. The close of $64.33 on 21 October 2026 is below the $65.90 close of 8 October 2026 and the $68.86 close of 25 September 2026 (adjusted daily closes). The shares remain 18.1% below the $78.57 recovery level.
• Disinflation paused in September. Monthly inflation rose to 1.9% from 1.7% in August, and the year-on-year rate was 33.4% (iProUP reporting INDEC, 13 October 2026). The August reading was the lowest in 14 months, so the slowdown did not continue.
• Credit quality has not improved in reported data. The second-quarter release showed non-performing financing of 6.25% and coverage of 95.39% (Form 6-K, 19 August 2026). No newer credit figures exist until the third-quarter release.
• Sovereign stress moved against the shares. TN reported on 25 September 2026 that JPMorgan's Argentine country-risk spread reached 609 points, a six-month high, while Banco Macro's US-listed shares fell 3.4% that day.
• Peso translation adds noise. The bank reports in pesos under inflation accounting (IAS 29), so dollar-share moves also reflect currency shifts.

Price setup

The shares closed at $64.33 on 21 October 2026. That is below the 8 October 2026 close of $65.90, the 25 September 2026 close of $68.86, the old $72 weekly level and the 4 September 2026 reference close of $78.57. The 52-week high is $101.37, 36.5% above the latest close.

The relative strength index of 46.9 sits mid-range. The shares are neither stretched upward nor at an extreme of selling.

Crowding evidence points to little buying interest. No new company filings appeared in the last 30 days. Retail-attention data and insider-transaction data are not available for this note. The quarterly report is the next scheduled pressure point and falls inside the next 30 days.

Catalysts, next 30 days

• ~12 November 2026, est.: INDEC October consumer price index. The date follows INDEC's usual mid-month schedule and is unconfirmed. A reading above September's 1.9% would extend the pause in disinflation.
• ~18 November 2026, est.: Banco Macro third-quarter 2026 results. One earnings calendar lists 18 November 2026 after the close, with consensus earnings of $1.94 per share; another projects 25 November 2026. The company has not confirmed either date. Non-performing financing against the 6.25% second-quarter level is the key figure.

What would change the view

The case breaks further if third-quarter non-performing financing exceeds the 6.25% second-quarter level, or if coverage falls below 95.39%, in Banco Macro's next release. A daily close below $62, a round level under the 21 October 2026 close of $64.33, would show selling extending lower.

The case improves if the shares post a weekly close above $78.57 and credit data hold at or below second-quarter levels. A new high in JPMorgan's country-risk spread above 609 points, with the shares falling, would confirm sovereign stress as the driver.

What it trades with

Banco Macro's US-listed shares trade with Argentine sovereign risk. The 25 September 2026 move, with the country-risk spread at 609 points and the shares down 3.4%, shows that link. A Benzinga headline on 5 October 2026 reported Brazilian stocks up 14% after Brazil's first-round vote, yet Banco Macro closed lower on 21 October 2026 than on 25 September 2026, so the regional rally has not carried over.